As a little lead in, the proof really isn't in the pudding. The proof is in the eating of the pudding. You can have 5 bowls of pudding all in a row and you won't know which is the best until you try it. Now is sample time.
So, its been a while.
You may remember my last little update after the shocking departure of Double A.
You may also remember that I warned that something else other than personnel approval hierarchy might be in play.
So now that the season is over and we're into free agency period and its the official post season to the post season; we're about to see just how right or wrong I am. Or was. Or whatever.
Let's just level set.
Double A didn't sell the farm in making a flurry of trades this season. However he did sever the farm and subdivide it and sell off parts. Make no mistake, the farm is drastically depleted. Not ruined, but it went from an A++ farm system to a maybe about a C. It might actually not even be a strong C anymore either.
There's two schools of thought on this. One would be that you should never deplete your resources like that because it can hurt you for years to come. The second is that this is the reason WHY you build up your farm system in first place. To take unproven potential talent and trade into proven major league talent.
And the other part, the part you should feel really good about and the part that there is zero argument about, is that the Jays scouting staff that Double A built (and is still there) are exceptionally good at drafting. Prior to this season the Jays have finished in the upper 1/3 in baseball. Just because they didn't make the post season, doesn't mean that they had a good draft slot. In fact, they over achieved on their picks and had a high success rate. That's good news.
Of course the really bad news is that there ain't a lot left. There are some and trades can be made using the likes of Dalton Pompey, Anthony Alford, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Sean Reid-Foley and Max Pentecost. But if you do that then you will have truly depleted the farm and you're done for 4-5 years. And that's if all your picks work out, which they won't. Plus four out of five of those guys are kids. Guerrero's only 16. They're a long way from the show.
But all is not lost!!!
Baseball has 170 ish free agents. Up from last years 140 or so. Down a fair bit from the more than 220 in 2012.
So here is your trip into the mind of Alex Anthopoulos. No charge for this either. And you're welcome.
July 28th 2015: Trades Jose Reyes, Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman and Jesus Tinoco to Colorado for LaTroy Hawkins and Troy Tulowitzki. Two Troy's, huh. Anyone else notice that?
Alex's brain: Huge upgrade defensively. Huge upgrade in offense (not a conversation about average, but overall offense). Gave up pitcher Hoffman, 3-4 years from the show, but was Toronto's 1st round pick (9th overall) and barring injury WILL make it. Remember, they're good at drafting. Gave up Tinoco another pitcher. In 3 years he hasn't gotten above Class A ball, so probably not a significant loss. Then there is Miguel Castro. The Curious case of Miguel Castro who flew up from Rookie ball to AA+ in less than 2 season. He seems to have flamed out above that level, but who knows.
My brain? 3 pitchers? A little bit of an ouch, but still still a good call.
July 30th 2015: Trades Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris and Jairo Labourt to Detroit for David Price.
Alex's brain: Win today. You get one of the best 5 pitchers in the game and give nothing up off of your major league roster. Brilliant. Matt Boyd, pitcher, 6th round pick out of college in 2013 and made it to the show for a cup of coffee in only 2 years. Hard to say where he levels out. Norris, 2nd round pick in 2011. Got to start with the Jays this year and didn't do well. Started with Detroit and did very well. He's probably somewhere in between and would be a half decent starter. Labourt was also signed in 2011 and in 5 years has a massed a 7-22 minor league record. No great loss
My brain? 3 more pitchers. 6 pitchers in 2 days. Holy shit. Yes, you still do the deal but you now have to really start figuring out a replenishment plan.
July 31st 2015: Trade LHP Felix Doubront to Oakland for cash. Trade RHP Jimmy Cordero and RHP Alberto Tirado to Philadelphia for Ben Revere. Trade LHP Rob Rasmussen, LHP Jacob Brentz and LHP Nick Wells to Seattle for Mark Lowe.
Alex's brain: I have a plan.
My brain: In 3 days we lost 13 minor league pitchers. I hope Alex has a fucking plan!
Now add to this pitching dilemma that they traded in May of 2015 they traded LHP Jayson Aquino to Pittsburgh or cash and RHP Matt West to the Dodgers for cash and you're talking about being down 15 pitchers in total between drafts. That's friggin huge. And for the record, they acquired no minor league pitchers in return in that period.
But I think this was Alex's math. The Troy X 2 deal did not kill him or even make up his mind. Everything after that did though. After Tulo he was still in draft, stock pile, etc, etc, etc. mode. But when you run up the total of lost pitchers to 15 there is only one way out.
Free agency.
And this makes perfect sense. You have a team that SHOULD, based on its offense alone, contend for the next 3 years provided that you get any semblance of pitching. You have no A+ prospects left to trade to acquire pitching so you have sign them as free agents. If you're Alex you're thinking 'no sweat'. The club is making tons of money. The winning has made the brand electric in this town with a huge monetary upside. Plus, winning makes Toronto a more attractive destination to free agents. It always does. Also, because Alex is smart, he knows that there are more free agents which will drive the overall price down.
The money part is simple. Grenkie and Price both on the market at the same time hurts both of them both. If there was only one, they would be the richest player in baseball. One of them still might end up the richest, but they will assuredly get less than they would have had either been the only top flight pitcher available. Supply. Demand. Economics 101.
You have Mark Buehrle's expiring 19 million dollar contract. That gets you a legit #2 starter. So you'd have to pony up the 25 million or so for a #1. You don't trade anyone and you've got your rebuild period. That's what AA was thinking.
#1 Free Agent Pitcher (25mm)
Dickey
Estrada (Free Agent)
Stroman
Drew Hutchinson.
Yes Hutchinson. There were only 21 pitchers in all of baseball that had more wins than him last year. That's less than one per team.
I think that this is why AA is no longer in the Jays front office. The messaging from Rogers was that they wouldn't be moving into free agency, not in any serious way at any rate. They intend to cut payroll. They intend to trade roster guys to restock.
Its not a bad strategy. Its sustainable for the long haul, its the Tampa model that had been successful for 10-15 years. You just have to get used to seeing your talent roll over and leave every 5 years or so. If they do go this way, the Jays will immediately turn back to that 'around .500' team that is one of the last eliminated from the Wild Card race (even though they were never really in it).
I don't know how bad this will get ..... it could be a full fire sale or just nominal. We'll see. But here are some things I could see happening.
- I do think Estrada resigns here. Really, its not going to be that much money because you're not eating up the money you saved on Buehrle not returning. Net, your saving 3-5 million per year.
- I think you end up with a rotation of Dickey, Estrada, Stroman, Hutchinson and Sanchez.
- There will probably be a strong attempt to trade Tulowitzki. Tulo could bring you 3 minor league pitchers, and no one to cost you money on the major league roster. And it would reduce payroll by the 20 million he is scheduled to make next year. The sell for Jays fans that they will get Ryan Goins for a full year at short stop. Financially, great move. From a baseball stand point it will be terrible. Goins, as great as he at 2nd (and he is), is not a short stop. People that play the game can recognize this. He lays back on balls and doesn't charge them and he relies on his arm too much and that will break down. Watch Tulo and see how many throws he makes from inside the baseline, that's what makes him effective. Goins is behind the line and throwing from his heels. You can do that at 2nd. Not at short. And Goins at 5 foot 10 is small for a short stop. Tulo is 6'3", Reyes was 6'0", Jeter 6'3", Alcides Escobar 6'1", Its a big mans game at short now, actually it has been since Ripkin. There are worse things than a middle infield of Goins and Devon Travis, but its a significant down grade from where they were.
- Jose Bautista has played his last game with the Blue Jays. Jose DOES have a no trade clause, so it will take cooperation to do this, but rest assured that the Jays want to make this happen. If you're a team like Pittsburgh that is just a middle of the order guy away from winning it all, this is a great move. Bautista will net you at least 3 solid minor league pitcher, with one of them at least being of the 'blue chip' variety. Why would the Jays do this? I won't go through the laundry list of fantastic awards he's one. He's good value and at 14 million he's a steal for a mid-market team. But if you're the Jays, why do you do this? 14 million is a start. But what's hidden in Bautista's offensive prowess is the steady defensive decline. He's got a big arm and gets some exciting assists from the outfield, but his range factor is consistently under the league average. He doesn't get to balls that the 'average' outfielder gets to. Next year could be an exceptional defensive outfield with Revere, Pillar and Pompey. And there's still Carrera and Saunders to throw in the mix.
The Blue Jays had the 13th highest payroll in 2015 at 115 million. I'm speculating that they will either trade or not resign people which will result in: Buehrle (-20 million), Tulowitzki (-20 million), Price (-7,230,874 of 19.75 million), Bautista (14 million) Dioner Navarro (5 million), LaTroy Hawkins (2.25 million).
The total savings are 68.48 million which reduces the payroll to 46.52 million. Add in 10 million for Estrada and maybe another 15 million on incremental raises to people who are still under control and you're up to 71 and a half million dollars. That would put the Jays with the 3rd lowest payroll in the majors. Just behind Tampa and just ahead of Houston.
Having fun yet? I think this is where we're headed. I really want to be wrong!
