Worst Week EVER!

3 1/2 games with 10 to play.

Confident?

Lets look at 1987.

Tottenham has an inordinate number of Blue Jay's fans and a surprising number of baseball fans.  It also has the rare bird that I call "students of the game".  These are people who don't have to cheer for a team necessarily (although there's nothing wrong with that) who love the ebb and flow of the game, the history, the trends, the majesty, the lack of a clock, the perfect string-theory, random, sense of order that baseball brings.

You don't have to understand it.  Its okay.

These are the people that watch the baseball post season regardless of who's in it.  People who are having a sleepless night and flip on the Padres and Dodgers from the west coast.  People who can't turn off the Little League World Series if its on when their flipping channels.

Now even the students of the game have fallen into the lore of 1987.  It is a history created by the media and no one with a sound voice has every spoken loud enough to dispute.  How could this be true?  Well it happens all the time.  I'm not kidding.  All The Time.

You know how Eve got Adam to eat the apple in the garden of Eden?  Sure.  We all do.  Did you know that no where in the bible does it say it was an apple?  Just a 'fruit'.  There's lots of these.

420 is the juvenile disturbance code, hence the term because synonymous with weed.  420 is actually the code for obstruction to public land.

Humans evolved from apes?  Not really.  Humans and apes share a common ancestor but we're on different curves.

George Washington didn't have wooden teeth.  It might be a better story than the truth which included Gold, Ivory and his own slaves.

Frankenstein was a monster!  No, Frankenstein was the Doctor that created the monster.

Anyway, you see how myths and lore evolve and become "facts" with no basis.

Back to 1987.

This was the best Blue Jays team ever.  1985 they won the division for the 1st time.  Great team.  1989, they won the division for the 2nd time.  Should have made it to the World Series but were under manned against the A's.  In 1991 the won again but ran into a hot Twins team.  1992 and 1993 we all know were great teams that won the World Series.
So why is 1987 the best?

• The best outfield in baseball.  It wasn't a debate.  George Bell, who would be MVP had 47 home runs (when that meant something) and drove in 134 RBI.  Barfield was a year away from his decline with 28 home runs 84 RBI a Gold Glove and 17 outfield assists!  Lloyd Moseby hit 25 points over his career average at .282, set a career high in homers with 26, had 96 RBI and 39 steals.  Ridiculous outfield.  
• Tony Fernandez at short.  To this day, the best short stop I have ever seen. Offensively he hit a cool .322.   "Should be" hall of famer Fred McGriff at 1st.  The transition from Iorg and Mullinks to Gruber at 3rd.  The emergence of Manny Lee as a high level defensive 2nd baseman.  
• The pitching?  Henke led the league in saves.  Jimmy Key led the league in ERA.  Ward could have been the closer on half the teams in the majors.  Steib was Steib.  Clancy was 15-11, Cerutti was 11-4, Eichhorn led the league in appearances (89) with an ERA of 3.17.  

Personally, if you gave me a choice between today's outfield and the '87 outfield, I'd take Moseby, Bell and Barfield every day of the week and twice on Sundays.  More home runs.  More RBIs.  More runs scored.  Barfield had a better arm than Bautista.  Pillar and Revere are better defenders, but overall its no contest.

The infield?  Here's the deal.  Fernandez had the EXACT same fielding percentage as Ozzie Smith and was a far better hitter.  Smith was a first ballot hall of famer.  That's a whole other conversation.  But I'm willing to call Tulo and Tony even.  Donaldson over Gruber.  Goins and Manny Lee are a wash.  Smoke / Collabello vs. McGriff and Fielder?  '87 wins.  But lets say its a wash.

Starting pitching goes to today's team, relief pitching goes to '87.

Finally, overall, the American league east final standings had

Detroit         98-64
Toronto       96-66
Milwaukee  91-71
New York   89-73
Boston        78-84

The top 5 teams in the division have a total winning percentage of .558.  This year, the division's winning percentage (which is still exceptionally good) is .483.  Put it this way.  Unless this year's team runs the table, they can't beat the 87 team in wins.

Unlikely.

So again.  Better team. Better competition.  And they didn't win.

What the hell happened?  Lets deconstruct 1987.

On September 24th, on a 4 game winning streak a half game lead (1/2) over Detroit, the Jays were playing host to the Tigers in a four game series.

You think its euphoric now?  The two best teams in baseball were facing off.  There was no wild card.  It was winner take all.  To top it off?  Jack Morris was going for the Tigers.

Game 1:  Mike Flanagan (6-7) gets the win over Morris (18-10), Henke gets the save.  The Jays won 4-3 with all their runs coming in the third inning on RBI's by Whitt and Mulliniks. Jays up 1 1/2 with 9 to play.
Game 2:  Jimmy Key pitched 8 1/3 innings.  Jeff Mussleman came on in relief for the win to go to 12-4.  Frank Tanana pitched 7 innings but Xavier (Willie) Hernandez took the loss.  The Jays were trailing 2-0 with no one on and 1 out in the 9th.  Barfield singled to CF.  Rick Leach pinch hits and doubles, moving Barfield to 3rd.  Manny Lee triples to right, Barfield and Gruber (running for Leach) score.  Willie Upshaw intentionally walked.  Nelson Lariano intentionally walked.  Moseby hit a routine ground ball to Lou Whitaker at 2nd.  He booted it. Jays win and up 2 1/2 with 8 to play.
Game 3:  Yet another 1 run game with the Jays winning this one 10-9.  Unbelievably, for the second day in a row, the Jays scored three in the 9th inning to win it. Barfield started it again with a double.  He moved to third on a single by Upshaw.  Rick Leach loaded the bases by getting hit by a pitch.  And Juan Beniquez tripled the bases clear to win the game.  Jays win and up 3 1/2 with 7 to play.
Game 4:  The fourth one run game in a row.  This one took 13 innings.  No one really cared that much.  3 of 4 was huge.  It was just a matter of math, the Jays were going to win it.  Jays lose and up 2 1/2 with 6 to play.  

The series was over.  The Jays hit the road to close out their last 6 games and the season.

This year, the Jays close with 7 on the road.

First was Milwaukee.  Bill Wegman against Mike Flanagan.  The Jays would lose 6-4.  Seriously, no big deal.  The tigers lost 3-0 to Baltimore.  It was still 2 1/2 with only 5 to play.

The Brewers Chris Bosio beat Key 5-3 in the next game while the Tigers laid a 10-1 beating on the O's.  1 1/2 with 4 to play.

Steib got beat by Juan Nieves 5-2.  It was a bit of a flat game all around.  But the Tigers lost anyway so it was still 1 1/2 with 4 to play.  

The off day.

The Jays fly to Detroit, Get a good nights sleep and a full off day while the Tigers, who have lost 5 of their last 7 and 7 of their last 11, play one final game against the.  Well damned if Walt Terrel doesn't beat Mike Boddicker 9-5.  Home Runs by Kurt Gibson and Matt Nokes sealed the deal. 1 game lead with 3 to play.

The Final 3.

Game 1:  With Jim Clancy pitching, the Jays scored 3 in the 2nd inning on a three run homer by Manny Lee.  That would be it for the Jays and the Tigers would win by scoring a run on a double play ball.  4-3 Tigers.  Tied with 2 to play.
Game 2:  On a beautiful fall Saturday afternoon, the Jays scored a run in the 1st inning on a Mulliniks sac fly.  The Tigers answered in the 3rd.  Nelson Lariano scored Manny Lee with a single in the 5th.  No one would have believed that would be the Jays last run of the season.  The Tigers would score again the bottom of the inning and the game stayed tied until the bottom of the 13 When an RBI single to right ended the game. Jack Morris when 9 innings in this game.  Mike Flanagan for the Jays pitched ELEVEN (11) innings!  Tigers up 1 game with 1 to play
Game 3:  The Tigers scored a run in the 2nd inning off of Jimmy Key who pitched a complete game.  Frank Tanana pitched a complete game shut out.  Tigers win.

How did this happen?   A better team than this year's team had a 3.5 game lead with 7 to play and lost.  How?

 Consider these similarities.

• George Bell was hitting .315 with 47 home runs, 134 RBI and 111 Runs scored heading into the last 7 games.  He would go 2/22 (.111) with no home runs, RBI or runs scored.  
• Josh Donaldson who is no longer the MVP favourite (Trout) is 5/30 (.167) with 7 runs scored.  The good news is the runs which means he's walking still and getting on, but you can't drive in many runs with a walk.   

• Ernie Whitt was an average catcher who was having his best offensive year in 1987.  To top it off, he was born and raised in Detroit and always seemed to have his biggest hits in Tiger Stadium.  Well the 1st loss against the Brewers cost more than the game.  Trying to break up a double play, Whitt went ribs first into Dale Sveum's knee.  The knee one.  Whitt wouldn't play again in 1987 which didn't hurt defensively, but sure hurt at the plate.  
• Troy Tulowitzki's error (not Pillar's) of not giving way to the outfielder coming in and resulting in a broken shoulder blade has had a huge impact.  I'm not going to get into the "Goins is every bit as good" debate because he's not.  But he is perfectly serviceable as a short stop.  So lets just let that go.  With Tulo in the line up the Jays scored 5.88 runs per game.  Without him 4.81.  More than a full run per game!  Nearly 20% of their offense.  

• Jimmy Key led the league in ERA.  He would pitch 21 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts to and ERA of 2.25 and go 0/3.  
• Estrada, Price, Dickey, Stroman, doesn't matter how well you throw if the team isn't scoring.  

• The games in '87 against the Tigers were not the problem.  Sure.  Winning the last one in Toronto + one in Detroit would have sealed the deal, but that wasn't really the issue.  What was the issue was the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Jays were a meek 4-9 against the Brewers.  Had they even been 6-7 that would have got it done.    
• This years Jays squad has 6 games left against the Rays who already own a 6-8 record against Toronto.  This pains me.  Tampa is the new Milwaukee and has been since they came into the league.  The Jays just can't find a way to consistently beat these guys.  

• So this isn't a similarity, but something that freaks me out.  The '87 Jays were a team that found ways to win the close games.  In fact they were 27-24 in one run games (.529).  
• This years version of the Jays borderline sucks in one run games.  13-27 (.325) sounds more like what you'd expect Philadelphia than Toronto.  Be concerned about that one.  

The Big lie

The 1987 team will forever be known as "chokers".  Its hard to drop your last seven and avoid that take.  Even if it is a lie.  

The '87 Jays play .679 in September that season going 19-9. It was their best month of the year in wins & winning percentage,  Even if you include the 3 losses in October in the September stats, it was STILL their best month of the year.  

This year Jays squad?  They're not "UN-HOT" at 13-8 (.619), but not anywhere near the '87 team.  Also nowhere near their .667 June or their torrid .778 August.  They've lost Tulo.  The train is slowing down a little as they climb the hill.  Their best 2nd baseman is at Short.  Donaldson has gone ice cold.  Their scoring is down over a run a game.  

The Yankees are playing shit.  They are are only 11-10 in September (.524) with no off days left. That's the saving grace.  

However they're playing Baltimore who they're 9-7 against, Chicago who they're 2-1 against and Boston who they've beat up 10 games to 5.  

If trends stay how trends tend to stay (you know, because they're trends and all that), the Yankees will take 3/4 from the White Sox, 3/4 from the Bosox and 2/3 from Baltimore.  

That would make them 91-71.  

The Jays are 87-65 currently.  3 games at home against Tampa.  4 games in Baltimore.  3 games in Tampa.  They need 5 wins. Barring a losing streak its over.  

Its the losing streak that worries me.  

PLAYOFFS

DAY 4
Okay kids...before the gnashing of teeth gets too far along, here's what you need to know.

We have 5 teams at 2-0; the Woody's, Rebels, Grisslies, Draft Kings and Master Batters.
We have 5 teams at 0-2; the Son's of Pitches, Sliders, Tap Masters, Gruesome Devils and Hurtin' Units.

No one has been eliminated.
No one has secured a bye to Sunday.
The five 2-0 teams have probably secured at least an elimination game Saturday evening.

So here is what you need to know about Saturday's games.

• The Sons Of Pitches play the Hurtin' Units, so one of those teams will not continue to be winless.  
• The Rusty Rebels play the Master Batters, so one of those teams will not continue to be undefeated. 
• The Gruesome Devils play the Sons of Pitches.  If SOP didn't beat the Hurtin' Units, one of these two teams will have to break their winless streak.
• The Tap Masters play the Hurin' Units.  If the Hurtin' Units didn't beat the Sons Of Pitches, one of these two teams will have to break their winless streak. 

We've figured out nothing so far gang.

There will be two teams eliminated in about 14 hours from now (its 12:30 now); and all I know at this point is that it won't be Woody's, Rebels, Grisslies, Draft Kings, Master Batters or Dodge.

The remaining teams; Dog Catchers, Beer Bros., Dusty Cleats, Sons of Pitches, Sliders, Tap Masters, Gruesome Devils and Hurtin' Units are all still in play to be out after the round robin.   However, it would take an epic turn of events for the Dog Catchers or Beer Bros. to be kicked to the curb.

I would love to make picks, but instead will wish everyone a fun and healthy Saturday!!!

DAY 3
Pat Riley, would not be terribly pleased.  3 days into the playoffs and still only one upset on the books.  Here are your new standings.

Draft Kings Vs. Beer Bros.:  The Draft Kings started like they do when they're in a good groove and it has nothing to do with the bats.  They didn't allow a run in the 1st or in the 2nd against a team that was coming off of a games where they scored 29 runs in six innings.  At the plate, they scored 4 in the 1st inning and 3 in the second.  7 - 0 after two against the Draft Kings?  No one wants those odds.  A Neil Pendlebury 7th inning grand slam narrowed the score to a respectable respectable 13-10 final. The Draft kinds are in the hunt for the bye.  The Beer Bros. at 1-1 can still get a bye, get an elimination game or be eliminated after the round robin.  Wide open.

Dog Catchers Vs. Hurtin' Units:  The Final was 20-6 for the Dog Catchers.  But it was 10 - 5 for the Dog Catchers in the top of the 4th and the game was still very much in play.  But the Units just couldn't quick seem to fire on all cylinders and Dog Catchers started to pick up speed.  They wouldn't end up needing the bottom of the 7th as they got their +7 to even their record at 1-1.  The Hurtin' Units, like the Sliders at 0-2 are out of the running for a bye, but they are very much in the spot of battling for a good elimination game slot.

DAY 2
Pat Riley, coach of the Lakers at the time (FYI: that's basketball) once said that, "the playoffs don't start until the home team loses."  The inference of course, is that the home team is expected to win and the favourite has home court advantage.  If home teams keep winning there's no real pressure.  No real excitement.  Its just another game on the schedule.

Now you could call the Cleats v. Dodge tie an upset, but they both got points so I don't really acknowledge it.  But day 2 DID see an upset!

Standings wise, we all need to breathe.  Nothing is decided.  Nothing will be decided tonight.  Nothing will be decided on Friday night.  Everyone will be alive.  What is relatively certain is that some teams will be playing for the bye.  Some will be playing for the wild card elimination games.  And some will be playing to stay alive.  A lot will change. 6 teams have a win.  8 teams don't have a loss.  8 teams don't have a win.  6 teams have a loss.  1 team has 2 wins.  1 team has 2 losses.  The only thing we know for sure is that the Sliders won't be getting a bye.  They could still quite easily see Sunday.  But a buy would a cataclysmic event.

Tap Masters Vs. Grisslies:  Lock down defense and clutch hitting was the order of the day in this one, (except for one bad throw from the stupid 2nd baseman).  Brad Smith's bases loaded 2 out triple to center ( smile ) in the 5th, broke open a game the Grisslies were leading 11-7 at the time.  The final 17-11.  Glen Tinkler, " he leads the team if not the league in two out RBI hits".  He was 3/4 and scored a run.  Two of his hits came with 2 outs and drove in runs.  I'm right occasionally.

Gruesome Devils Vs. Rusty Rebels:  The Rebels defense was spectacular in this one.  They hung zeros on the Devils in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings.  The leagues worst defense held their own against the Rebs, only giving up 5 through 4 innings themselves.  But the Rebels would get four in the 5th, four more in the 6th inning and not need the 7th as the pulled away and won 13-4.

Sons Of Pitches Vs. Master Batters:  The Sons came into this game with a game plan for the first place Master Batters.  Being down 13-9 after 5 innings says that plan was doing pretty darned good.  But the 6th inning was ultimately their undoing as the Master Batters would pull away and win this one 21-16.  Martin Ranby my "watch out for guy" for SOP was 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored.  Bob Blewett, "can (and has) gone 4/4 this season, but if he goes 1/4 the one he gets will break your back.  He's almost guaranteed 2 foul outs to him when he catches"  Bob was 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored and a bucket full of RBI's.  I was wrong about the foul outs though.  He only got one.

Hot Tub Woody's Vs. Sliders

There is panic at the disco this morning as the Slider wake up to find themselves 0-2.  Don't sweat it.  The Brew Jays started 0-2 one year and made the final.  There Grisslies had a 2-2 round robin and won the championship.  Two games do not a round robin make.  The Woody's trailing 4-0 after one inning, outscored the Sliders 22-8 the rest of the way.  Their attack was balanced with 11 of 12 men scoring runs.  7 of 12 scored multiple runs!  So how did my "watch out for" guy Eddie Hopkins do?  "I'm going to go with Not So Fast, Eddie Hopkins.  And maybe this is personal because I've been on the wrong side of too many 4/4 nights from him.  The man can still stick."  As expected.  Eddie was 4 for 4 with 2 runs scored.

Tonight's games have

Beer Bros. @ Draft Kings (someone will go to 2-0 and the other to 1-1)
Hurtin' Units @ Dog Catchers (someone will go to 0-2 and the other to 1-1)

All games Keogh, good luck gang!

DAY 1

Well day one is in the books.  Here is how your standings look.  After tonight everyone will have played a game and the Master Batters and Sliders will have played two.

Draft Kings 14 Vs. Sliders 10:  This game was what you'd expect from two top 4 teams.  Tied at 10's after 5 innings.  Still tied at 10's after 6 innings.  The Sliders didn't score in the top of the 7th.  After a quick out in the bottom of the 7th, Rick Hjelholt and Ingo Bartens keept the game alive with hits.  With two out and nothing in, Derryl Gaudet and Stike delivered key hits.  You may remember someone writing this last weekend, " Ingo Bartens.  Has a knack for getting the hit that you can least afford to give up"

Master Batters 13 Vs. Dog Catchers 11:  Another tight affair between top clubs.  The Master Batters scored 4 in the first and held a 10-4 advantage after 4 innings.  The Dog Catchers counted 4 in the 5th and came to the top of the 7th trailing 10-8.  The inning started with two outs and no one on.  Then Kevin Boston, Cliff Tucker and Kevin Moon all reached and scored to put the Dog Catchers ahead for the first time all game.  The Master Batters hadn't scored since the 4th inning and when the first two batters were retired on a foul out and fly ball, it looked done.  Then a fortunate hit by Roger Gaudet, followed by Douma, followed by Agrue, followed by Chiovitti changed the fortune of the MB's and gave them the dramatic win.

Dusty Cleats Vs. Dodge City Rounders:  You'll have to forgive people for not anticipating this game being close.  11th vs 6th place, its understandable.  The Cleats had a 6-0 lead after the 1st and then found themselves trailing 7-6 after the 2nd.  Slugfest?  Not so much, the teams settled down and played some really good defense after that point and the final score was an 11 tie.  In the game Gord Robertson was 3/3 with a run scored against Dodge.  "the Cleats will either win a game or be in a game in the 7th inning of the round robin because of Gord's glove and bat"

Beer Bros 29 Vs. Hurtin' Units 11:  This one was actually supposed to be close.  Two teams separated by a point. Hurtin' Units with a better plus / minus, having scored more runs and given up fewer.  Slight edge to the Units maybe.  Not on this night.  The Units led 4-0 after the top of the 1st and the lead wouln't even last a 1/2 inning.  The Beer Bros scored every inning, 5, 2, 7, 1, 7, 7 and wouldn't need the seventh inning.  As predicted, Al Bales 4/4 with 3 runs scored.  "Never fails to save his best ball for September. He will hit above his season average and he goes all "game-face" defensively"

The Playoff Primer

THIS IS WIDE OPEN!!!

There are lots of reasons why this is wide open.  The biggest reason might be that Peter Hollmann and Steve Ross aren't on the same team this season.  When they are on the same team they are a combined 14-0 and have two championships.  

With them split up, everyone has a chance now.  

Then there is the issue of the schedule.  The schedule seems to have a few people upset.  The truth is 168 people had all season to address, suggest, propose or otherwise complain about the schedule.  Now is a little late.  The schedule is NOT punitive to the top teams.  What it is, and is by design, is fair and balanced.  When we have 15 teams, the schedule is weighted to the better teams.  They have an easier schedule.  That's why teams try to get to the top 6;  for an easier ride.  When we have 14 teams and use this schedule, there is no advantage for anyone.

Now, just because the schedule is balanced, doesn't mean that there's no trends that we can use to figure out who has an advantage.  

Below is are standings based on each team's 4 playoff opponents and the 2 games they played against them in the regular season.  So everyone has an 8 game history.  This is how it looks.  

   Keep in mind that this is from me manually cross referencing every single score.  There is no automation in this so there is a chance of errors.  However, I'm reasonably confident that its accurate.  

The first thing that jumps out is that the Dog Catchers are the only team that have a clean slate against their competition.  Say what you want but they are the only team that I would declare an overwhelming favourite to get the bye to Sunday.  Don't get me wrong.  They have warts.  Every team does, but they are the only ones that bring a perfect history to the table.  

So lets look at each team.  

Everyone is so excited!!!

So here's some stuff that you really should know.

Draft Kings:
Power Ranking: #1
Offense:  #4
Defense:  #1
Runs scored by subs:  0
Power Threats:  Chuck Cragg
Average Leader:  Derryl Gaudet (.779)
Runs Leader:  Chuck Cragg (52)
Hits Leader:  Steve Black (82)
Record Against Playoff Opponents:  5-2-1
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Ingo Bartens.  Has a knack for getting the hit that you can least afford to give up and is absolutely fearless stopping the ball. 
Why they won't make Sunday:  Missing Chuck for the first two playoff games and Stike is playing with an upper body injury.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Chuck is only missing two games.  Injured or not, Stike is among the 2 or 3 best "in-game" captains.  His value far exceeds his play.  

Dog Catchers
Power Ranking: #2
Offense:  #1
Defense:  #3
Runs scored by subs:  19
Power Threats:  Kevin Clouthier, Kevin Boston, Kevin Moon, Mike Iacoucci
Average Leader:  Kevin Clouthier (.755)
Runs Leader:  Kevin Clouthier (51)
Hits Leader:  Kevin Moon, David Potocki (74)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Jon Hardy.  Never quits on either side of the ball.  And frankly, I've seen far too many sliding and diving catches out of this fella. 
Why they won't make Sunday: Not sure that Randy's lower body injury is completely resolved.  Questions around Larry's health as well.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Their record against their opponents and the steady, consistent operation that the Dog Catchers run.  Clouthier, Moon and Boston have become a modern Murderer's Row.  

Master Batters
Power Ranking: #3
Offense:  #10
Defense:  #2
Runs scored by subs:  2
Power Threats:  Chris Parson, Geoff Keogh
Average Leader:  Jon Douma (.769)
Runs Leader:  Chris Parsons (48)
Hits Leader:  Adrian Barry, Chris Parsons (75)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Bob Blewett.  Bob can (and has) gone 4/4 this season, but if he goes 1/4 the one he gets will break your back.  He's almost guaranteed 2 foul outs to him when he catches.  More than competent at 1st base.  Nice pick.   
Why they won't make Sunday:   Availability of Geoff Keogh; Dave Fleming upper body injury. 
Why they will make Sunday:  1st overall, allow less than 10 runs per game, consistent contributions from 10, 11 and 12 players.  Nice balance.  

Dodge City Rounders
Power Ranking: #4
Offense:  #3
Defense:  #7
Runs scored by subs:  14
Power Threats:  Keith Beechey, Steve Lahey
Average Leader:  Keith Beechey (.777)
Runs Leader:  Jerry Muirhead (58)
Hits Leader:  Keith Beechey (80)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Dwyane Comer.  Follow the glove Dwayne!  Will make at least one catch per game that maybe only Pendlebury should make.  Has enough bat to make defenses mental.  
Why they won't make Sunday: Maybe its me, but this team seems to have a lot of outfielders.  They can patchwork an infield, but doesn't look really strong.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Gayle and Muirhead at the top of the order and Lahey and Beechey pounding them in.  If everyone else plays to their average, this won't be a problem.  

Sliders
Power Ranking: #5
Offense:  #2
Defense:  #12
Runs scored by subs:  30
Power Threats:  Jeff Sagert, Mark Doyle, Mark Kolsen, Roger (Kahuna) Burton
Average Leader:  Brian Richards (.784)
Runs Leader:  Brian Richards (58)
Hits Leader:  Brian Richards (91)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  John Stiff.  Ya I said that.  And I can back it up. He's hitting a cool .606, 112 points better than last year.  And he's 6th on the squad in runs with 25.  Don't sleep on his bat.  Those that have are sorry.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  Best record in the second half, (11-2) and their defense hasn't risen above 12th.  Not enough leather to get to Sunday.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Best record in the second half.  5 Sliders have improved their average by 100 points over the previous year, so you could argue that they have 5 guys playing at least a full rating better than they were drafted.  

Hurtin' Units
Power Ranking: #6
Offense:  #7
Defense:  #6
Runs scored by subs:  19
Power Threats:  Scott Peters, Dave McGovern, Darrell Hagar, Todd Hicks
Average Leader:  Mike Olliffe (.726)
Runs Leader:   Todd Hicks (51)
Hits Leader:  Darrell Hagar (73)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Dave Miller.  Quiet guy, might be a little overlooked on a pretty talented squad.  That would be a big mistake.  His defense is dramatically improved.  If your looking for a soft spot in the outfield keep looking.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  They don't have a good enough match up to run the table in the round robin.  They will lose a game.  The key is if that loss is early, are they able to rebound.   They won their last two, but they lost the 3 before that.  Round robin has no room for losing streaks.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Great balance on offense and defense and maybe more importantly, balance on the number of players in the infield and outfield.  Taylor's improved pitching will be a factor. 

Rusty Rebels
Power Ranking: #7
Offense:  #8
Defense:  #5
Runs scored by subs:  14
Power Threats:  Brad Young, Steve Brooks, Rob Rumboldt
Average Leader:  Scott Barton (.904)
Runs Leader:  Brad Young (49)
Hits Leader:  Scott Barton, Brad Young (75)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Gary Basso.  Absolutely rock steady glove.  Responsible outfielder who never misses the cutoff.  And to boot, hits line drive, after line drive after god forsaken line drive.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  Scott Barton upper body injury; Don Booth out for the playoffs; 2 - 6 against their playoff competition.  Plus....come on.  No back to back champs since the Wild.  It ain't happening this year.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Sandy has had a magical year; rookie Marshall has contributed huge, Armstrong is traditionally one of the best 5 hitters in the league in September.  

Beer Bros.
Power Ranking: #8
Offense:  #8
Defense:  #9
Runs scored by subs:  8
Power Threats:  Neil Pendlebury
Average Leader:  Neil Pendlebury (.738)
Runs Leader:  Neil Pendlebury (49)
Hits Leader:  Neil Pendlebury (76)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Al Bales.  Never fails to save his best ball for September. He will hit above his season average and he goes all "game-face" defensively.  If you're used to the fun-lovin' Al, he'll be back on September 21st. 
Why they won't make Sunday:  Hmmmm.....lots of Neil eh?  Paul Piellusch, lower body injury.  Short stop remains an issue. 
Why they will make Sunday:  Despite Piellusch out of the outfield, Goncalves, Ross and Pendlebury and an exceptional top 3 out there.  

Grisslies
Power Ranking: #9
Offense:  #6
Defense:  #10
Runs scored by subs:  5
Power Threats:  Darren Ford, Rod Duggan, Tom Hollmann, Will Goodin
Average Leader:  Darren Ford (.759)
Runs Leader:  Doug Dwyer (54)
Hits Leader:  Doug Dwyer (83)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  There's some really good choices here, but I'm going to go with Glen Tinkler.  His defense has bolstered the confidence of every infield arm.  And almost as important, he leads the team if no the league in two out RBI hits.  If we actually kept that stat he'd be getting a trophy.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  Beer
Why they will make Sunday:  Won 3 of last 4 games.  No big deal.  One of those wins was against the Draft Kings who were in 1st place on Sept 1st.  Another was against the Master Batters who were in 1st place when we played on Sept 8th.  Can lose to anyone.  Can beat anyone.  

Dusty Cleats
Power Ranking: #10
Offense:  #13
Defense:  #4
Runs scored by subs:  16
Power Threats:  Dan Chiasson, Paul Koolhaas
Average Leader:  Rob McCarron (.709)
Runs Leader:  Doris Casullo (38)
Hits Leader:  Rob McCarron (73)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Gord Robertson.  Everyone else that I'm picking is done on a compare to Gord, this is the easy one.  In the final game (7-5) against the Cleats in 2011, Gord was 3 for 4 with two runs scored.  More than a quarter of our offense came from our #10. or 11?  I can' remember and it doesn't matter.  But the Cleats will either win a game or be in a game in the 7th inning of the round robin because of Gord's glove and bat. 
Why they won't make Sunday:  Only have McCarron and Casullo for one of their 4 round robin games.  Only one win in 8 games against their playoff competition.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Finished the season 6-2.  The two losses were to the Tap Masters who were behind them in the standings.  The wins were all against teams ahead of them in the standings.  

Tap Masters
Power Ranking: #11
Offense:  #9
Defense:  #10
Runs scored by subs:  47
Power Threats:  Keith Dell
Average Leader:  Shaun Wolfe (.786)
Runs Leader:  Ryan Feehely (56)
Hits Leader:  Ryan Feehely (82)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Steve Ross.  He'll be the first to tell you he's had a lousy year.  I'll be the 1st to tell you that he's one of the top 5 most consistent playoff performers year after year since I've been in the league.  The Tap Masters you saw in the regular season are gonna look a little different.  Be ready.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  I'm going to go with the subs on this on.  13% of their runs scored have been scored by subs.  People tend to show up for playoff games and its a different line up when its just your own guys.  Look for their runs go from 13.5 per game do around 11.  They'll need superior defense to win scoring at that rate.  Paul Doyle, lower body injury; Jason Bowers, upper body injury.  
Why they will make Sunday:  They closed the season on a 3 out of 4 run and looked good doing it.  And we haven't really seen Paul Doyle play at his customary level yet.   

Hot Tub Woody's
Power Ranking: #12
Offense:  #14
Defense:  #5
Runs scored by subs:  0
Power Threats:  Robin Dickson
Average Leader:  Robin Dickson (.699)
Runs Leader:  Kevin Cavalier, Robin Dickson (32)
Hits Leader:  Robin Dickson (58)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Tough call on a team that has a lot of "rise to the occasion" guys so I'm going to go with Not So Fast, Eddie Hopkins.  And maybe this is personal because I've been on the wrong side of too many 4/4 nights from him.  The man can still stick.  On top of that he's absolutely unflappable.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  They are one of two teams that didn't have a run scored by a sub this season.  They were 14th in offense.  What you see is what you get.  
Why they will make Sunday:  This team has two former winners of the most improved player award in Hope and Osmond and both continue to get better; the 5th best defense in the league shouldn't be overlooked.  The Woody's despite finishing 13th in a 14 team league, have one of the more favourable playoff schedules with a 5-3 record against their competition.  

Sons Of Pitches
Power Ranking: #13
Offense:  #12
Defense:  #13
Runs scored by subs:  21
Power Threats:  Cameron Clark, Micah Williams
Average Leader:  Cameron Clark (.861)
Runs Leader:  Cameron Clark (52)
Hits Leader:  Cameron Clark (87)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Martin Ranby.  Anytime someone mentions Martin's name, its almost immediately followed by "good guy".  True.  Did anyone notice that he hit over .600 and makes way too many shoe string catches that rob hits and save runs?  He can steal a game.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  The offense and defense are both near the bottom.  If one was close there may be a glimmer of hope.  
Why they will make Sunday:  How is this for a glimmer?  Tied for the second fewest wins in the league, yet have a tidy 4-3-1 record against their playoff competition with a zero +/-!  Very nice. They're accustomed to playing these teams close, that bodes well.      

Gruesome Devils
Power Ranking: #14
Offense:  #11
Defense:  #14
Runs scored by subs:  2
Power Threats:  Mike Candy, Peter Hollmann
Average Leader:  Mike Candy (.747)
Runs Leader:  Jens Lepa (37)
Hits Leader:  Peter Hollmann (72)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy:  Calvin Steeves.  Want him to play 2nd?  He'll dive, stop balls, make throws, direct traffic, order pizza.  Whatever you need.  Want him in the outfield?  He'll catch grounders, make catches, dive for balls, hit the cut off man, save orphans from a burning building.  Whatever you need.  The average is down but the runs scored are third on the team which just tells me that when he gets on; he's a superior base runner that makes the most of his chances.  
Why they won't make Sunday:  Defense and offense.  I think everyone except DeLand and Bob Candy are outfielders.  Its tough to play with two on the infield.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Didn't think I'd come up with anything?  Please.  The Devils were 7-18-1 this season with a -192.  Wow.  In 2010, the last time we had this format, the Dusty Cleats were 3-23 with a -186.  The Devils scored 329 runs to the Cleats 207.  Despite that terrible season and anemic offense, the cleats went 2-2 in the round robin and finished in 7th overall.  ANYTHING is possible.  

Summary

There's your run down of each individual team.  Now....I'm not picking game by game, but I will make some overall picks.

First off, #1 (Master Batters) opens against #3 (Dog Catchers) while #2 (Draft Kings) start with #4 (Sliders). Normally, it would be a good bet, or at least reasonable, to take teams 1-4 to get the coveted automatic berths to Sunday's quarter final.  However, right off the hop, 2 of those will immediately be in the position of not being able to make another mistake.  Remember, someone has to lose and a tie probably screws both teams.  If its a bad loss (like -7) then I can almost guarantee that the losing team won't run the table and go 3-1.  So, whoever wins those first games among the top 4 teams, I predict will end up with the bye to Sunday.

Maybe not the bravest prediction, but logical.

I don't expect the losers to eliminated; however I do anticipate that they'll play an elimination game on Saturday night. And they'll probably win it.  They didn't make the top 4 by mistake.

So who gets the other two free passes?  Its impossible to say right now of course, but when we look back on it here's my guess.  The two top four teams that lose will likely lose a second game and the teams that they lose to will get the bye.  The rationale here is that anyone else who gets the bye will need an upset along the way.  Except for the top teams you need to beat someone you're not supposed to beat to get the bye.   So someone needs to be ripe for that.  Then of course you need to win the games your SUPPOSED to win as well. 

We'll see.

Remember, the last time we had this format, not a single team went undefeated.  We had 5 teams at 3-1.  The Brew Jays, Rusty Rebels, Lucky Stiffs, Torn Ligaments and Banshees all tied in points.  The Banshees were relegated to an elimination game (which they won) as they had the lowest +/- at +4.

Remember too, that we didn't have a winless team.  We had four 1-3 teams, The Dodge City Rounders, Dog Catchers, Grisslies and Dislocated Joints.  The Grisslies and Joints were both injury riddled after two round robin games and were the two teams eliminated on +/-.  Probably just as well that year for both.  The Dog Catchers went to an elimination game on their 1 win and lost to the Banshees.  The Dodge City Rounders, 12th in the regular season with 7 wins and 1 win in the round robin, won their elimination game against the Red Dogs.  Then won their quarter final game against the first place Brew Jays.  Then won their semi final game against the Torn Ligaments; before finally bowing out to the Wild in the final.

One round robin win took them to the finals.

Anything can happen.  

Final Stats

Lets get the last of the betting out of the way.....

Sons of Pitches @ Dodge City Rounders  At first blush, they're only separated by 3 wins and don't seem too dissimilar. But the difference in their plus / minus is 111 runs. 

Got this one, 9 run margin for DCR.  

Tap Masters @ Sliders The Tappers suddenly have 10 wins.  How did that happen?  The Sliders suddenly took a loss, albeit after only only 4 1/2 innings, but a loss is a loss and they have to show rebound now.  

Predicting the demise of the Sliders was apparently a tad premature.  A tidy 20-16 win in this one.  

Master Batters @ Grisslies.  The Master Batters have won 19 out of their last 25 (funny eh?).  They are 1st overall, they've been measured for their jackets, planned the parade route.  Only thing left to do is beat the Grisslies, win the Beer Cup, reel off 7 more wins and call it a season.  I think this game is bigger for the Grisslies. 

Well, the Master Batters have now won 19 of their last 26.  The game did mean more to the Grisslies I think.  

Rusty Rebels @ Dusty Cleats.  The Cleats just bead us by 19 Thursday night, how can I go against them?  The only thing harder than winning a blow out is following that game with another win.  

Hmmm.  Not to smart on this one.  Cleats by 2.  

Week Record:  2-2

Total Record:  37-21

Money:  +$160.00

So there will be no game by game predictions for the playoffs, but I'll have more "general" predictions of course.  I piss enough people off without giving them specific reasons to beat up on the Grisslies.  But I think I might bring this back next year.  

On to the stats.  So one thing that you will notice is that for the 1/2 season stats, you need 39 ABs to qualify.  13 games multiplied by 3 abs per game is 39.  I realize for league averages we use 2 ABs per game.  While I acknowledge that going 20 / 26  (.769) is awesome, my personally belief is that someone with double the at bats (and double the opportunity to fail) is more impressive even if they are hitting .720.  Just my opinion, but I keep these stats so I can do it.   

1st Half Stats

The Barry / Tanner twins were all over this one.  Keep an eye on the Feehely kid too, he's all over this edition. 

Scotty we know.  But at the half way point we had a lurking Cameron Clark, a resurgent Sandy Bell and a couple of other story lines.
1.  Frig, Stike is on fire.  Good think Chuck isn't in the top 10 too.
2.  Dude, Wolfe, Behan, Greenfield, are they for real is it just a hot start?
3.  Beech, Hollmann, McGovern, Dickson, Richards, Clouthier, Piellusch, Hollmann, Hagar, Keogh, Sagert, McCarron, here we go again.
4.  Hicks,  Blowes,  Ross, Kolsen, Olliffe.  Did we screw up the ratings????

Total hits is always an indicator for me.  Limited at bats and a high average don't impress me much (doesn't impress Shania Twain either - think about that).  But Scott was leading the league in total hits after the 1st 13 games....and not by a little.  What a fantastic start.

Despite really nice starts by a hand of full people I was ready to declare this one over at the half way point.

And if you look back at averages you'll see some interesting things.  The first four in this list were prominent in the average list.  That would lead you to believe that they either wouldn't be able to keep it up OR had made a significant change.

The rookie pool is smaller than last year.  But they are also constrained by the 39 at bats as well, so not as many showed up.  But all these guys were major contributors to their teams.

Anicete and Darrell led the way here with 32.  Double it and they take out Doucet's record for runs in a season.  Same for Jerry and Scott.  Through Beechey and McGovern into the mix as "close".  Scoring at this pace is near impossible to sustain, but maybe one of them could give it a run.

And your 1st half standings that you've seen a million times.  I just realized while typing that the Grisslies are shown as 6-1.  Clearly that should have read 6-7.  It doesn't change the standings, just looks stupid.

What did we learn in the 1st half?  Well, the Sliders sucked (and they probably would all year).  The Gruesome Devils were giving up an IMPOSSIBLE 20.38 runs a game (but no one can stay that bad for a full season, they'll come out of it), The league's new squad, the Master Batters were off to a great start (which is cute and nice and cuddly, but it'll never last), the Beer Bros. were looking like the class of the league (Probably 1st overall), the Dog Catchers were being the friggin' Dog Catchers again, The Draft Kings were rocking a great defense again but so-so offense and everyone else looked 500ish.  

2nd Half Stats

Lookie here....did I mention Feehley before.  Year 2, no missed games, atta boy.  Overall, ABs are pretty much the same in the 1st half as 2nd.  

But not average.  Average is decidedly different.  After a great 1st half in ABs, Hits and AVG, Scott got hurt and didn't get enough at bats to qualify for the 2nd half stats.

Cam did.  He was lights out.  Derryl Gaudet and I joined him at the over .800 mark but it was really no contest.  People who rebounded from poor or average 1st half's to make a statement in the second half included Short, Lahey, Hayward, Argue, Cragg, Moon, Skip and Doucette.

You should consider this a "hot" list going into the playoffs....everyone on this list is pretty much in a groove right now.

So here's what I'll tell you.  I felt like I was never out in the 2nd half of the season.  Apparently I was 10 times over 13 games.  Cameron 7 times.  I would say we both did well (in different ways of course) and for me, WAY above my normal play.  I say this because Cam and I were both 3 hits short of the 52 that Scott had in the 1st half.  He had a WOW half.

This isn't a surprise.  I had the best run I've ever had as is evident in a .271 uptick in average over 1/2 a year.  This is everyone who improved by 100 points.  Brian not withstanding, the second half's by Stiff and Conforti tell the story of the Sliders season.

and add Glenn's production to the Slider list.  Ryan Marshall has withstood Hugh Armstrong and rumour has it that he'll come back to any other team next year.  :)

I got this one pretty handily when you think of a gap of 4 after only 13 games.  That sounds like bragging but its not.  The real honest truth is Duggan, Goodin, Ford and Hodge hitting behind me.

As I look through the list, I can only assume Hugh got a lot of pinch runners. (I'm glad he doesn't read this)

And what did we learn in the 2nd half?

Well, the Sliders apparently don't suck and have the best record in the league.  The Gruesome Devils were giving up an IMPOSSIBLE 20.38 in the 1st half and reduced it to 19.69 in the second half  (I guess they never came out of it), The league's new squad, the Master Batters weren't just nice and cute and cuddly, they were the real deal getting 10 wins in the 2nd half as well.  The Beer Bros. were no longer looking like the class of the league.  5-8, just another middle of the road team.  The Dog Catchers were being the friggin' Dog Catchers again, The Draft Kings were rocking a great defense again but the 2nd best offense of the 2nd half.  Everyone else looked 500ish. 

Season Stats. 

And Feehley (did I mention him?) was consistent all year and reeled off an incredible 116 ABs.  Richards, Barry and I finished in a tie for 2nd, but in all fairness, Adrian would have been in 2nd alone or perhaps tied for 1st or in 1st had he not had a ZERO stats night caused by a forfeit.  

Overall we had 52 of our 168 players with 100 at bats!

Your top 25 in average is a little different than the website version.  Here's what we learned.

Cameron Clark was lurking and the resurgent Sandy Bell hung around the top 25 all year.    

1.  Frig, Stike stayed on fire and Chuck did join him in the top 25.  Dammit.   

2.  Dude, Behan, and Greenfield's hot starts WERE for real!

3.  Beech, Hollmann, McGovern,  Richards, Clouthier, Hollmann, Hagar, Keogh, and Sagert, were consistently in the top 25 all year.    

4.  Olliffe screwed up our ratings.  Enjoy being a #4 next year.  

91!!!

We had Brian and Cam both break previous records!  Well done lads.  The actual record is near 98 (I think) and held by Scott Barton.  But I don't have complete stats for that season so what you see listed is what we have.

Again, Mr Richards!!!  Sweet Lou and I added some heat to him, but Brian was consistent from front to back this year.  Lou, Sagert, Stiff and Dude all 100 points or more better.   Anyone else figure out the Sliders yet?

I kind of buggered this up in the this week to last week column.  So ignore the "last week" column. What is striking here is that the Draft Kings are 1st defense and 4th in offense.  The last team that pulled off that combo was the 2011 Grisslies and I have a jacket to remind me how that year ended.

People like this stat when it works for them.  When it doesn't, they don't care.

Here's what I look for....consistency.  Teams tend to trend to who they are.  ie...the Master Batters offense isn't terribly good.  Not that its awful, but lets be realistic, there's 9 better.  However, their defense is absolutely elite, so the offense really isn't that much of a factor.

The same can be said for the Sliders who have an even bigger disparity.  There's MAY matter more because it leans to offense which will matter less every day until a week from Sunday.  Teams who's offense and defense are reasonably close together with middle numbers work for me.  Close together at 13 and 14, not so much.

A few have fallen and will come back next year.  Our replacement guys didn't get enough ABs to qualify, but the feedback I have is that they'll be coming back too.

Behan's .817 is safe until next year's rookie crop.

Congrats to Jerry and Brian.  You guys got within one of Lahey's monster year last season.

To score 52 runs you need to score twice a night.  Every night.  No breaks.  Its seems damn near impossible to me.  And we had 9 guys do that.  Incredible.  And we had 14 guys score 50 or better.

It'll be a long winter gang.  Here's the last of your standings.

The 19th hole.

Last weeks predictions:

Gruesome Devils vs. Dodge City Rounders:   Bigger, better, faster, stronger.  To quote Kanye.

Kanye wins; I win; Dodge wins. 

Dog Catchers vs. Sons Of Pitches:  Health of the Dog Catchers captains remains a question mark.  If this was Vegas, this game would be taken off the board.  SOP are capable, but DC in a close one.

Not as close as I thought in the long run, but a tight game through 4 innings.  DC wins.    

Draft Kings vs. Grisslies:  Why?  We play close games against the Draft Kings.  A 2 run loss and 4 run loss in our last two games against them.  If we hit on all cylinders, it can happen.  

And it did, Grisslies by 4.  

Dodge City Rounders vs. Hurtin' Units:  Rounding into playoff shape.  The offense is there.  The pitching has been very good.  The defense needs to be a little crisper to be a deep threat in the post season.

A little crisper?  Ya, I think they stepped up winning this one 7-4  

Master Batters vs. Hot Tub Woody's:  Shocked.  I know.  

And with this win the Master batters clincked 1st place overall.  

Rusty Rebels vs. Sliders:  The Sliders and Rebels should be a good match up.  Neither team has an elite defense but both can be good.  The Sliders will out hit the Rebs in this one.

Hmmmmm.  A little bit better defense than I expected on both sides, 14-11 Sliders.    

Tap Masters vs. Dusty Cleats:  The Cleats bounce back from last week's blip.    

My 1st miss of the week.  The Taps strike back.  

Hurtin' Units vs. Sliders:  An interesting match up here.  Similar offenses, but the Units bring more leather to the game.  

Well  I didn't predict a game shortened by the lights not working at Keogh park.   But I did predict the Units win!

Beer Bros. vs. Rusty Rebels:  Its not that the Beer Bros. aren't trying.  But they seem to be running in mud.  Working really hard but not really moving.  Following up last weeks offensive explosion will be difficult.

Proven wrong, Beer Bros by two.    

Sons of Pitches vs. Grisslies:  Yes, the Grisslies WILL run the table after their take down of the Draft Kings.  

In an injury filled game, the Grisslies would win again.  

Gruesome Devils vs. Tap Masters:  Expansion cousins that have had tremendous success since joining the league.  This year there is a real possibility of finishing in last and 2nd last. 

My faith in the Gruesome Devils was unfounded.   

Grisslies vs. Dusty Cleats:   Rob and Pully know each other pretty well.  These teams rarely see a blow out against each other.  Looking for a close Grisslie victory.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong....1.  wasn't close, 2. Grisslies lose, 3.  Pully and Rob DO NOT know each other.  A beat down from Pully and the Pylons 

Week Record:  8-4

Total Record:  35-19

Money:  +$160.00

Next week's games:

Sons of Pitches @ Dodge City Rounders  At first blush, they're only separated by 3 wins and don't seem too dissimilar. But the difference in their plus / minus is 111 runs. 

Tap Masters @ Sliders The Tappers suddenly have 10 wins.  How did that happen?  The Sliders suddenly took a loss, albeit after only only 4 1/2 innings, but a loss is a loss and they have to show rebound now.  

Master Batters @ Grisslies.  The Master Batters have won 19 out of their last 25 (funny eh?).  They are 1st overall, they've been measured for their jackets, planned the parade route.  Only thing left to do is beat the Grisslies, win the Beer Cup, reel off 7 more wins and call it a season.  I think this game is bigger for the Grisslies. 

Rusty Rebels @ Dusty Cleats.  The Cleats just bead us by 19 Thursday night, how can I go against them?  The only thing harder than winning a blow out is following that game with another win.  

The Post Season (because playoffs are for hockey)

So, there has been a LOT of legion discussion on the playoff format for this year.  I understand the confusion, we haven't used this format since 2010 so it merits a bit of a review.  

Everyone seemed to really like the 3 divisions of 5 teams and doing the round robin that way.  Unfortunately, this season has us with 14 teams and the 3 division doesn't work.  (that's math that even I can do).  

The system that we're using this year was devised by Jeff Dancey in 2010 after more coffee and midnight oil than you can imagine.  We simply manipulated his version for this season's 14 team playoff.  Here it is in the simplest terms.  

• There is one pool.  
• Each team will play 4 round robin games. 
• Each team will play 2 round robin games during the week and 2 more on the Saturday
• At the end of the round all the teams will ranked 1 - thru - 14.  
• The tie breaker (because there are lots of ties in this format) is:  total points (2 for a win, 1 for a tie), Plus / Minus (all games are played to conclusion including the bottom of the 7th, even if the home team is ahead but not up by 7 or more runs), Head - to - Head, Runs Against (during the regular season runs for is the decider, in the playoffs it switches to runs against)
• The 13th and 14th seeded teams are eliminated after the round robin. 
• The 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th seeded teams become the home teams for the quarter finals on Sunday. 
• The elimination games happen Saturday afternoon 12@5; 11@6; 10@7; 9@8. 
• The winners are the 4 elimination games become the visiting team in the 4 quarter finals on Sunday. (The elimination game winners are ranked according to their finish after the round robin. 
• From there on its normal, quarter, quarter, quarter, quarter, semi, semi, final.  

Now, who do you play?  That's the other half of the Dancey sabermetric schedule of amazingness.  Each team plays 4 teams who's team rankings add up to 30.  Confused?  Its better visually than written.  The Master Batters will play the 3rd, 12th, 9th and 6th ranked teams.  Adding up to 30.  The Tap Masters will play the 8th, 13th, 2nd and 7th ranked teams.  Again, adding up to 30.  So everyone ends up playing a fair cross section of the league.  

Although its not complete, here is how it lines up so far.  

Hope that's clear for everyone.  How about some stats? 

Here are your nearly end of season power rankings.  The Cleats and Grisslies were tied for 9th last week.  The Cleats played twice this week and the Grisslies 3 times. They met this week too and the Grisslies were trounced (albeit in 6 innings) and still they remain tied through all that.  The Master Batters claimed 1st overall and remain 3rd in the rankings. Go Figure.  

1st half standings.

2nd half standings.  With a game to play the Sliders and Master Batters can still lay claim to the best record in the 2nd half.

And your season to date with one night of games left.  

Top 25 in at bats in the 1st half of the year. 

Top 25 in at bats in the 2nd half of the season.  

If there was any justice I'd be tied with Tucker, 2 behind Feehley with a game to play.  I'm not.

Look at all the +100 ab guys this year though!  A full quarter of the league has reached the century mark!

Barton's ridiculous start was only one of 10 players over the .800 mark. 

There are a number of players deleted off of this list because they don't have the requisite 39 abs in the 2nd half to qualify.  Seems like hits were tougher to come by in the 2nd half with only 4 guys over the .800 mark.  There's no way any one is catching Cam in this one.  

The only difference you'll see between this and the one on the website is that the league only requires 2 abs per game to qualify....I (because I can) require 3 abs per game.  2 has never sat well with me.  52 at bats?  So you can get that in 10 or 11 games of a 26 game season.  That's not enough for me to have someone qualify.  Sorry Wolfe, unless you get 12 abs in your last game, and Douma and Doyle.  

Did anyone notice that Tom and Peter Hollmann are tied at .720 and Tom is the only one with a game left.  If he's 3/4 or 4/5 he'll get the extra drumstick at Thanksgiving!   

First half hits was won pretty handily by Scotty Barton.  

So, this looks like Cam's to me.  I have 1 career 5/5 and I doubt I'll be lucky enough to get another one on the last day of the season.  Ford, Richards, Feehely, Short, Young Pearce and Schrank all have a game left, but none have a serious shot at Clark.  Nice 2nd half Cam.  

Much the same story for the season.  Brian, who has had a fantastic season has this won barring something ridiculous. Ford and Feehely and I have a reasonable chance to knock Gaudet and Stike out of the top 5.  Should be an interesting finish.   

Contgrats to Ani and Hags for winning the 1st half.  

Well this is frightening.  The Dog Catchers and Draft Kings are done.  Which means if I score a run in my final game, Ford will need 4 to pass me.  He could do it.  And Richards would need 5 to pass me.  This is choke time.  

Could Jerry score 5 or Brian 6 to run down the legendary 61 by Doucet.  Highly unlikely but shouldn't be completely dismissed.   You never know, right?   

Through the 1st 13 games of the season these were the most improved players.  

From game 14 onward, these are your most improved players against last years averages.  5 Sliders speaks to their remarkable 2nd half.

This is the full season view and this list will look a little different next week as everyone under 78 at bats (3 at bats per game) will come out.

Your rookies over the .500 mark.  Some great 1st seasons here and some excellent comeback stories after multiple years off.  

Final stats and a playoff primer next week.