Playoff synopsis

Scheduling Note:

The final stats BLOG will be out at 6am Sunday. 

Preseason Predictions

I'm sure most of you are anxiously awaiting the results from our preseason panel of "experts" in picking the top 6 teams in the league.  In fairness to the rest of the lads, there were 5 points separating 13th from 6th so this was an exceptionally close race.  No one picked the Red Dogs or Grisslies so I won't say that anyone's picks were particularly awful. 



Doyle - (4) Dog Catchers, Draft Kings, Gruesome Devils, Hot Tub Woody's
Dwyer - (3) Brew Jays, Dislocated Joints, Hot Tub Woody's
Boston - (3) Dog Catchers, Draft Kings, Gruesome Devils
Peters - (2) Dislocated Joints, Draft Kings
Keogh - (4) Dislocated Joints, Draft Kings, Gruesome Devils, Hot Tub Woody's

Congrats to Doyle and Keogh!  Beginners luck probably, but still a good effort!

Overview

First, apologies.  The Blues Brothers and mother nature (mostly mother nature) completely screwed the prediction BLOG this year.  Normally I would have been able to start working on it last Thursday.  However, I could do nothing but wait until Tuesday's games were done to even get started.

I realized how much effort it is when you lose 4 work days.  So....there isn't nearly the data there has been in past years, I've done what I could.  I will keep addition stuff so check back.

I will add a break down for each team with key player analysis throughout today and tomorrow.  

POOL A.  

Overall:  Nothing terribly eye popping here.  The Draft Kings are the best....the Grisslies are the worst and the guys in the middle are bunched.  Kind of what you'd expect.  Or is it?

The Teams
 

Why they won't make Sunday:    Reason number 1, sheer exhaustion.  I mean, how much can these guys keep putting on The Good DeLand?  I hear that he'll need back surgery after a full season of carrying the team.  Sober, Healthy and Sound Defense win championship.  Worked for the Beer Bros., (minor health issues), Grisslies (no issues) and Wild.  My one concern with these is Health. 
Why they will make Sunday:  Health Schmealth.  They have the best defensive team in the league by far.  They didn't win the 1st half of the season or the second half of the season, just stayed consistent through out.  They have the second best middle infield in the league (Grisslies are 1st - hands down) and no one in their pool will be a serious threat.  

Why they won't make Sunday:    Overall team speed might be an issue when facing teams like the Beer Bros., Draft Kings and Rusty Rebels.  Dancey is questionable in day games after night games.
Why they will make Sunday:  One of the most balanced teams in the league.  They have 4 players hitting under .600 and all of them have 'clutch' hitting ability.  They have the league's average leader AND .761 Goodin AND .728 Horgan.  Their team defense is consistent and has the ability at times to be spectacular with Horgan, Goodin, Chiovitti, Larkin, Keogh and Richards in particular; all having amazing moments with the leather this year.  

Why they won't make Sunday:  Spent too much energy with their late to run to have anything left for the playoffs.  Hasn't been back to back winners in 5 years, ain't gonna happen now.  There's no way Kapp can keep up this pace.  Outfield defense is only 'okay'.  Infield defense is only 'okay'.  Lost their number 6 for the playoffs.   
Why they will make Sunday:  Because they're the champs until someone knocks them off.  Kapp and McCarron have had solid years offensively and in the last 3 weeks, Ross, Piellusch and Doyle have been off the charts.  Marky Mark will have to continue to be a selfish hitter to be his most effective and Ross, McCarron and Piellusch need to be offensively 'situationally aware' while Kapp is the table setter.  If Fleming plays 6 playoff games as well he subbed this year (.750, scoring more than 2 runs a game, playing LF, RF and 1B) a long run is certainly probable.  

Why they won't make Sunday:    Because the Rebels think the tournament ends Saturday.  Lots of good on base guys but no power to score cheap and easy runs without expending a lot of energy.  Hugh's continued quiet leadership leaves the team confused. 
Why they will make Sunday:  Again, another well balanced team.  They have better than average team speed, a confident pitcher and reliable infield defense.  They are super fast up and down the order but they are aggressive base runners that sucker opponents into ill advised throws that lead to many extra bases.  They are happy to win on your errors. 

Why they won't make Sunday:  Because of their record.  Because the leader in runs scored hasn't played in a month.  Because we don't have a #4 player who left the team and won't be back for the duration of the playoffs, Because we gave up more runs than any other team in the league. Because we scored 47 runs fewer than the 2nd worst offensive team in the league. 
Why they will make Sunday:  We played half the season without a #2.  Half the season without a ##.  Half the season without a #4.  Half the season without a #7.  We'll have the 2, 3 and 7 in the lineup for all playoff games.  That's kind of a big deal.  The infield defense if pretty good.  The outfield defense will be better with Brad, Roger and Winston in the lineup every game and everyone else slotted to the right spots.  Sunday?  Sunday?  I'm thinking championship!

POOL A PREDICTION:  Two of my favourite teams are in this group, the Woody's and Rebels.  I think the Draft Kings will be challenged but prevail in one of the first two spots.  The second one I'm giving to the Hot Tub Woody's.  If someone else from this pool is going to win it all, I think they'll have to go the long way through the Saturday afternoon elimination.  

POOL B.

Overall:  This one takes a little more digging. Four teams over .500 and the Red Dogs looking very Grisslie-ish at the bottom.

Why they won't make Sunday:  Doucet, Kahuna, Mooner...repeat...repeat...repeat.  Its a 3 man team, going nowhere fast.  And the Joints have made a habit of losing elimination games after good seasons.   
Why they will make Sunday: To think of this as a 3 man team is a mistake.  Fantastic play by Jennings, Moye and Rose in particular were sometimes drowned out by the big three, but they would all likely be in someone else's three. Lynn is reliable in the field and a dangerous player at the plate.  The younger Foerster is in his playoff groove and will hit +800 for the next week and run the bases without a conscience.  Finally, if I had to make a short list of 5 or 6 six guys to have at the plate in a clutch situation in a September game, Gord Robertson would be on that list. 

Why they won't make Sunday:  Great first half, limped through the second half....heading the wrong way at the wrong time.  Three guys named Steve makes it impossible to call a fly ball.  Not a particularly tall team.   
Why they will make Sunday:  This team has some good athleticism, some decent power mixed with good averages, but their biggest asset is that they have more guys who understand how to play baseball than most team.  That mixed with their energy can go a long way. Kolsen, Lahey and Sagert (Jeff) are respected power threats.  Richards, Sagert (Art), Basso and Hayward get on all day and run the bases well.  Polny has had a good second half and is hopefully over a late season finger injury and new comer Steve Porter has been hitting gaps with line drives. 

Why they won't make Sunday:  Day games on the weekend will not exploit The Beechey's night hearing.  The loss of Al Fry and of the player assigned to replace him will be too much to overcome.  People have finally had enough of Dwayne Comer's green zebra socks.  Who do you think are?  Cal Steeves?  Come to think of it, Dodge has had enough of Cal's shorts too.  
Why they will make Sunday:  This team lost Al Fry after 6 games.  He was hitting .783 and was scoring over 2 runs per game.  They were 2-4.  Losing one of their best offensive players they went 10-7-1 the rest of the way.  Peters got off to a slow start this year, but seems to be in stride now.  The Beechey has been great all season.  Both Cals are playing well with Russell working on a conversion to short stop that looks pretty good so far. 

Why they won't make Sunday:  I can't think of much bad or funny to say.  
Why they will make Sunday:  I can think of LOTs of good. Typically, the Cleats playoff results exceed their regular season.  Dane is on the short list of most improved batters and Pully continues to be one of the best "pitching with a plan" hurlers in the league.  Troy has steadily improved and the rookie Banks has maintained a decent average while battling a host of leg injuries all year.  Then you get into trouble.  Emeil Edwards followed a fantastic rookie season by improving.  Bill Sallustio has gone from being a nice player to have on your team to player that you don't want to play against.  Pearce gets better every year.  Smith just keeps on getting on base.  Then the cherry on the sundae, the run production of Hollingshead and his stupid blue bat.  Ya, they look good. 

Why they won't make Sunday:  Because they're only twice as good as the Grisslies and that ain't good enough.  Their defense is bad.  To harsh?  They gave up 2 runs fewer than the Grisslies on the season.  That's bad.  Usually you can't really read the Red Dogs because they miss Mike Candy for half the games and they never really gel until the playoffs.  They only missed Mike for 3 or 4 games this year, so what you see is what you get.   
Why they will make Sunday: Holman is a stud and knows how to win.  Tito pitched the best final I ever saw a few years ago.  He needs to find that form.  Stephane has had a break our year with multiple 5 hit games and consistent defense no matter where he was put.  Bob who thinks he can't hit seems to only get the ones that really hurt the other team.  Avery has been battling injuries all year, hopefully he finds his legs and form over the next couple of weeks.  When he's on he can carry a team.  Anything close to that would be awesome.  Finally, Chris, The Whale, Parsons.  He's the wild card.  He's streaky, he's had four perfect nights at the plate and just as many rough ones.  A good start is imperative.  We saw him have an excellent tournament in August, I think he's got another good streak in him.   

POOL B PREDICTION:  The Joints and Gruesome Devils are the super easy picks here.  They are wicked above in +/- and its seems they're ripe to go 4-0 and 3-1 and get the easy ride to Sunday.  I don't think so.  The Joints haven't beaten Dodge this year.  They have scored 3 more runs than Gruesome in 2 games head to head, 1.5 runs per game margin.  That's pretty thin.  It gets thinner.  The Joints have a tie with the Cleats and a one run victory over the Red Dogs.  The Gruesome Devils have the fewest loses in the pool but I'm not too inspired to take a team that has won only twice in their last 6.  I'm going off book fellas, The Dodge City Rounders and Dusty Cleats will get the automatic berths to the quarter finals on Sunady.  

POOL C.
NOTE:  Sorry, chart is wrong and I can't fix it....not yet anyway.  The Tap Masters record should read 4-3 not 3-4. 

Overall:   Oh, this one is going to be fun!!!

Why they won't make Sunday:  Now that the pressure of hitting in every games of the season is off, Bob McCullough will lose interest.  Getting to Sunday with 3 rookies?  Good luck.     
Why they will make Sunday:  Bo is having an amazing year at the plate and base running.  Defensively he's been great at 2nd as well.  Not "Dwyer" or "Stike" great, but he's really coming along.  The rookies, two thirds of which have battled injuries have come along, progressing steadily all year.  Not many people saw this team as a top 6 contender (ya, I called it), however; they delivered with Bo and Rod's combo being engaged by not over competitive.  Timmy two beers has made a similar transition to that of Stephane Simard.  He is a pain in the ass to defend against.  

Why they won't make Sunday: This is a good team, but they're built for Keogh park.  When they get to Coventry they're just another fly ball team.  
Why they will make Sunday:  Are you kidding, this is one of the few locks of the playoffs.  Everyone by now knows of Slipetz.  Young is ridiculous, but the whole flippin' team mashes.  They have 7 guys who hit .700 or better.  Their worst hitter (if you can call it that) was a hit away from .600.  Lou Conforti had the most improved average in the league and may have played every position.  Wynnyk has been reborn and playing his finest ball in years.  Randy continues to hit corners and keep batters off balance while contributing with the stick.  Douglas, Hjelholt, Doucette, Smith....good god, this team just keeps coming at ya.  And I didn't even mention Turner or Robinson!  See what I mean?  Good luck to the rest of Pool C..  (C stands for 'Catchers')

Why they won't make Sunday:  Because this team started like a house on fire and faded into near obscurity.  Butler moved west, no idea if he's back for the playoffs, but I suspect not because he only shows up to kick some Grisslie buts.  Rumboldt is hurt, multiple players are having their worst years ever.  They'll be tending the bar on Sunday.
Why they will make Sunday:  Lets start with super rookie Kevin Clouthier.  He's ready for a deep playoff run and will lead the team with his .712 average and be driving Neil all week.  Jonkman is a crafty pitcher who won't get rattled by the odd bad inning.  Cliff Tucker has enjoyed a full season of robbing anyone who dares to hit to right field.  Butler will be back and he's the straw that stirs the offensive drink for this club.  Bowers, Koolhaas and Schrank will all tell you they've had bad year, but the new season is beginning and I'm predicting a return to form.  Two great vets who will make the difference in clutch situations are the senior Clouthier and senior Pendlebury.  The more critical the situation, the better they are. 

 
Why they won't make Sunday:  This team was rained out 85 times this year and had a back end loaded schedule. They had so many games compacted into the last two weeks that they're done.  Spent.  Finished.  Nothing left in the tank.  Boston is hurt, they may be down an outfielder (we'll see), and Argue has staples in his head. 
Why they will make Sunday: This team has been through hell and back and still they bounce back.  Barlow has played elite level defense in the outfield and that combined with Boston, Nyers, MacDonald and Clark might give them the best outfield in the league.  The mid season addition of Nyers changed the fortunes of this club.  He gave them their 3rd .700 hitter after Boston and Clark.  Mason steadies the infield defense and Ingo has played well at 3rd base and has become adept at the getting the lead runner at 2nd base.  Tessier is a rock at 1st and Argue plays 2nd with a short stops range.  Its almost not fair.  This team doesn't rely on one glove or one bat.  Everyone contributes. When they have their full team this teams defense rivals the Draft Kings. 

Why they won't make Sunday:  Pitching.  Defense.  Hitting.  Other than that, they're fine. Glecoff is hurt and if he's not, he'll hurt himself again.  Phil being Phil. 
Why they will make Sunday: Lets start with the fact that this team has multiple guys who are legitimate home run threats.  Add to that, that they have two round robin games at Keogh park and you have the recipe for a trip to Sunday.  Despite the chart above, McClean hit .689 and also gives you great outfield defense.  Him with Phil, Chiasson and Gabourie is a formidable outfield.  Danny has had has best average season in years and Cox and Cudnik both hit great.  Hager has been a pleasant surprise for the Units, pitching well and playing all over the diamond.  Vince and Brian are wild cards.  They are both capable of 4/4 nights and making the evening miserable for the opposition.  They're through.  Easy. 


POOL C PREDICTION:  I've been pushing the Brew Jays all year.  There's just something about that squad.  However they are one of only two teams in the pool with a negative +/-, they've scored the fewest runs and have a losing record.   The Dog Catchers are .500 and the Tap Masters who have a winning record have the worst +/-.   So, this is the year of the upset.  The Blues Brothers are going through.  You read it hear first.  They are battle hardened and ready after their run for the past 3 weeks.  They've played well against this competition, having beaten everyone in the pool.  And the Hurtin' Units make it too.  They are the only other team with a win against everyone and I think they will benefit from the the two games at Keogh.  People will call it upsets, it was called here before the first pitch was thrown.

POOL WINNERS

Draft Kings. 
Hot Tub Woody's 
Dodge City Rounders
Dusty Cleats
Blues Brothers
Hurtin Units

WILD CARDS

This prediction is pretty much blind luck....but the 4 teams I see playing in the elimination game on Saturday afternoon are:

Brew Jays
Dislocated Joints
Beer Bros.
Dog Catchers. 

GOING HOME

Grisslies
Red Dogs
Tap Masters
Gruesome Devils
Rusty Rebels