BONUS BLOG: Week 17 Preview

INTRO
(Current standings, the way I like 'em at the bottom of this page)
Changes

The BLOG will be updated daily to reflect the impact to the standings for each day's games from now until season's end or until all spots are determined.  Personally, I don't think we'll be settled until the last day of the season and the last game between the Hot Tub Woody's and Wild.  The "story" part of the BLOG might not change, but the standings will.  Check the bottom of the page. 

Today

I will have the usual assortment of stats sometime between now and Monday, but in the meantime our standings and potential order(s) of finish have hundreds of combinations.  As we enter the last two weeks of the season, only two positions have been settled, as far as I can tell, and everything else is up in the air.  I'll try and give a who's hot and who's not run down as we preview the games. 

Banshees Vs. Hurtin' Units:  The Banshees are 3-2 in their last 5, having beaten the Red Dogs, Dog Catchers and Dodge City Rounders.  The Hurtin' Units are 3-2 as well having beaten the Beer Bros., Wild and (did anyone mention this?) the Dusty Cleats!  The Units could move into a tie with the Banshees if they win, and would own the tie breaker if they win the game by more the one run.  A win by the Banshees would ensure that they finish ahead of the Hurtin' Units. 

Dog Catchers Vs. Dusty Cleats:  The Dog Catchers are 3-2 in their last five, beating The Hot Tub Woody's, Torn Ligaments and Brew Jays.  The Cleats are obviously 4-1 over that period having beaten everyone not named the Hurtin' Units.  A win for Cleats will be kind of ho-hum as they've already nicely rebounded from their one loss...but a win for the Dog Catchers will guarantee an over .500 season and ensure that they can't finish any worse than 8th.

Torn Ligaments Vs. Hot Tub Woody's:  The Torn ligaments are 1-4 in their last 5 beating Wild and the Hot Tub Woody's 3-2 record has wins over the Dog Catchers, Red Dogs and Beer Bros.  The Woody's could be in tough in this one as their opponent doesn't have the word "dog" in their name.  The Woody's don't currently own any tie-breakers against any of the teams gunning for 2nd and 3rd, so they need to just keep winning to stay in. A victory would mean no worse than a 7th place finish. The Ligaments could finish anywhere from 4th - 14th, but a win here would ensure no worse than 10th. 

Beer Bros. Vs. Wild:  The Beer Bros. potent offense is 1-4 in their last 5 (Red Dogs) while Wild are 2-3 (Red Dogs, Brew Jays).  The Beer Bros., currently situated in 14th place could finish as high as 9th place.  On the other hand, Wild are still legitimate contenders for 2nd place and a win assures no worse than a 7th place finish to the season. 

Rusty Rebels Vs. Dodge City Rounders:  The Rebels have gotten hot at the right time, winning four of their last five games.  In that stretch they've beaten The Hurtin' Units, Brew Jays, Hurtin' Units (again) and Dog Catchers.  This recent surge has assured that they can't finish in last and now have the opportunity to move as high as 9th.  A win here will solve nothing, but will keep the fight for a higher finish alive.  Dodge City is moving in the other direction having won one of their last five (Dislocated Joints).  Dodge is setting up their pitching rotation for the post season.  One of the luxuries is of securing your seeding early is that you can rest players, work on mechanics, send key performers on trips to Italy....

Red Dogs Vs. Grisslies:  The Red Dogs are 2-3 in their last five, but have won two in a row with wins over the Dodge City Rounders and Lucky Stiffs.  The Dogs laid a whooping on the Grisslies in June winning that game 13-4.  The Red Dogs currently own 9th place and can't move up due to tie breakers.  They need to win to hold the spot.  The Grisslies are 4-1 in their past five beating the Dislocated Joints, Dodge City Rounders, Hurtin' Units, and Hot Tub Woody's.  The Grisslies need "help" to finish in 2nd place.  Win or lose, the Grisslies will be in the top 6, other results will determine where exactly.

Banshees Vs. Dislocated Joints: We've already 'run down' the Banshee's recent fortunes.  There are too many intervening games plus their previous unknown result in the week to really determine what this game will mean for them.  The Joints come into this one 2-3 for the last five, beating the Torn Ligaments twice!  The Joint were in a cellar battle for the first 1/3 of the year but have been respectable since then and largely playing very close games.  They could find themselves anywhere between 9th and 14th by season's end.  A win here would potentially see a tie with the Hurtin' Units. 

Lucky Stiffs Vs. Hurtin' Units:  The Hurtin' Units play their second game of the week and second last game of the year. Again, too many variables to measure them here.  The Lucky Stiffs are 3-2 in their last five, with victories over the Banshee's, Rusty Rebels and Wild.  This game is big for the Stiffs.  They need to win 2 of their last 3 to secure second place.  Alternatively, they can win 1 of 3 and have the Grisslies, Hot Tub Woody's and Wild all lose a game as the Stiffs hold all the tie breakers. 

Brew Jays Vs. Hot Tub Woody's:  The Brew Jays come into their second last game of the year playing 2-3 over their last 5.  They have beaten the Beer Bros. and the Lucky Stiffs.  The Jays will secure a top 7 finish with a win and it will also ensure an over .500 season.  Additionally, they could, depending on other results, remain in the hunt for 2nd overall.  For the Woody's a 2nd win for the week will be necessary to stay alive for second place. 

Wild Vs. Rusty Rebels:  Much like the Woody's, the Wild will need a second win to keep the dream alive for second place.  It they do they will be odds on favourite to finish top 3.  Meanwhile the Reb's will look to continue their hot play and their charge up the standings. 

STANDINGS - Complete through week 16.
(unofficial as always)

These standings are based on the following week 15 game results, which I believe to be true:  Dusty Cleats Vs. Hurtin' Units, Brew Jays Vs. Dog Catchers, Grisslies Vs. Dislocated Joints, The Wild Vs. Lucky Stiffs, Dodge City Rounders Vs. Red Dogs, Torn Ligaments Vs. Banshees, Rusty Rebels Vs. Dog Catchers  Dusty Cleats Vs. Brew Jays, Beer Bros. Vs. Hot Tub Woody's and Lucky Stiffs Vs. Red Dogs.

PTS = Two points for each win and 1 point for each tie.
W% = Number of wins divided by the number of games played. 1/2 a win added for each tie.
GBL = Cleats wins take away your wins + your losses take away Cleats losses; divided by two. Add an additional 1/2 game for each tie.
MAX = Games remaining times 2 plus current points.

Very little was resolved in the race for second place this passed week:
(Unofficial and unsanctioned)

Tie Breakers for 2nd place

Lucky Stiffs: Hold the tie breaker over the Hot Tub Woody's, Wild, and Grisslies.
Wild: Hold the tie breaker over the Grisslies.
Grisslies: Hold the tie breaker over the Hot Tub Woody's.
Hot Tub Woody's: Currently don't hold a tie breaker
Brew Jays: Hold the tie breaker over the Grisslies

Hanging on:

• The next Lucky Stiffs win or tie or Brew Jays loss or tie will eliminate the Brew Jays from 2nd place.


• If the Lucky Stiffs win their game in week 17 and the Hot Tub Woody's lose both of theirs, the Woody's would be eliminated from the race for 2nd. 


• If the Lucky Stiffs win their game in week 17 and Wild lose both of the theirs, Wild would be eliminated from the race for second place.


• If the Lucky Stiffs win their game in week 17 and the Grisslies lose their game, the Grisslies would be eliminated from the race for second place. 

The Magic Number for third place:
(Unofficial, Unsanctioned and largely ignored)

Projected order of finish
(Unofficial, Unsanctioned, Largely Ignored and ridiculed in most circles)

Still working on this, but its reasonably accurate as I continue to sort our various tie breaker scenarios. I'll keep a running tab of changes below the chart.  This will now change with virtually every single game. 

August 18 games - Hot Tub Woody's win means its no longer possible for them to finish lower than 8th.