BONUS BLOG: Signs of Trouble for the Dusty Cleats

Editor's Note:

Crap.  The text below was written as a joke.  It was meant to poke fun at how ridiculous the ESPN article was than actually poke fun at any of the Dusty Cleats.  And go figure, I finally write something about the Cleats and they lose their first game of the year.  No offense to the Hurtin' Units, by my apologies to the Cleats

Before you go on to read this (if you feel you must), here are the current standings including the Dusty Cleats Vs. Hurtin' Units and the Brew Jays Vs. Dog Catchers

PTS = Two points for each win and 1 point for each tie.

W% = Number of wins divided by the number of games played.

GBL = Cleats wins take away your wins + your losses take away Cleats losses; divided by two.  Add an additional 1/2 game for each tie.

MAX = Games remaining times 2 plus current points. 

Standings are sorted by GBL and ties go to W%. 

When the magic number hits zero a team is eliminated for the position its measuring...in this case second place.  When the magic number hits one (1) it guarantees no worse than a tie.  However it doesn't take into account tie breakers.  For instance, the Lucky Stiffs hold the Tie breaker over the Grisslies.  If the Grisslies magic number gets reduced to one (1) they will be eliminated from reaching second.  

So lets look at tie breakers, which are head-to-head results.  Don't treat this as gospel, but this is what I've got so far.  Many of these teams still play each other so I've only noted ones that are fully determined.  

Lucky Stiffs:  Hold the tie breaker over the Hot Tub Woody's, Grisslies and Dog Catchers.

Wild:  Hold the tie breaker over the Grisslies and Dog Catchers.

Grisslies:  Hold the tie breaker over the Dog Catchers and Hot Tub Woody's. 

Hot Tub Woody's:  Currently don't hold a tie breaker

Dog Catchers:  Hold the tie breaker over the Lucky Stiffs and Hot Tub Woody's

Brew Jays:  Hold the tie breaker over the Grisslies

And the Feature Story...

"Not too easy, is it?"

From the visitors Dugout at Keogh Park in Tottenham, a Tottenham Old Timers player screamed at Dusty Cleats right fielder Robin Dickson as he took his position late in a game in the spring of 2011.

"It's not too easy to hit home runs when you don't know what's coming!"

The enraged player and his teammates could hardly believe what they had seen in the previous inning. As they sat on the bench at Keogh, they caught sight of a man dressed in white about 25 yards to their right, out near the tennis courts. And while the players watched, the man in white seemingly signaled the pitches the visiting pitcher was throwing against the Dusty Cleats, according to four sources on the bench that day.

The Dusty Cleat's home run rate on contact was 5.4 percent at Keogh 2010, meaning Keogh Park boosted the Cleats rate by 1.8 percentage points, or about 50 percent. Their opponents' rate was 0.2 percentage points less than at Coventry.

The players weren't exactly sure how the man in white knew what was coming -- maybe, they thought, he was receiving messages via his Bluetooth from an ally in one of the nearby houses who had binoculars or access to closed circuit television. But they quickly picked up the wavelength of his transmissions: He was raising his arms over his head for curve balls, sliders and change ups. In other words, anything besides fastballs.

A few of the players on the bench turned their backs to the field to fixate on the man in white, while others watched the Keogh park radar gun. As soon as each pitch was thrown, those watching the man would call out what they thought he was signaling, and those focused on the radar gun would confirm his signal. Sure enough, the man in white was raising his arms above his head before every off-speed pitch and doing nothing when the pitch being called was a fastball.

One of the four very brave men to

have accused the Dusty Cleats of stealing sighs

Some guys on that team had actually seen the same man making the same motions as far back as 2009. But that had been in the last weekend of the season, and they let it go. Now, stunned not only that the man in white was back but that he was accurately calling every pitch, a call was made to the dugout, and the coaching staff was given the following message: Start using multiple signs, even with no one on base.

When Dickson next came up to bat, he struck out. After the inning, he ran to right field, adjacent to the visitors dugout, and the livid player issued Dickson a warning.

54 home run hitter, Robin Dickson

"We know what you're doing," he said, referring to the man in white, according to the player and two witnesses. "If you do it again, I'm going to write a strongly worded letter"

THE DUSTY CLEATS RESPOND

Cleats GM Chris (Pully) Pulfer

Dusty Cleats general manager Chris Pulfer said Wednesday afternoon a BLOG report accusing his team of stealing signs at home is "stupid" and "has got a lot of holes in it."

Speaking to reporters before the Cleats game against the Hot Tub Woody's,  Pulfer said there was "zero truth" to the allegations.

Also Wednesday, Dusty Cleats centre fielder Brett Mabee criticized The BLOG on his Twitter Account, saying: "I'm hitting brutal and we get signs at Keogh? That makes sense ya clowns". He Tweeted a couple of minutes later: "Teams/pitchers need to accept when we win Keogh Park; not give excuses.  Rob McCarron joined the Twitter barrage with, "If we've been stealing signs since '09; why did we only get 3 wins last year?  Ridiculous".

When asked this week about the player confrontation, in the spring, Dickson confirmed that he and the player (who may or may not have been a notorious hot head from the Grisslies) had exchanged words. But he denied that their argument had been about signals relayed from the stands and denied getting outside help to steal signs.

"First of all, I don't even know how you can do that with the speed of our game," Dickson said. "And second of all, it's obviously something that's not legal in the game. We are the CLEATS not the CHEATS.  End of conversation."

The inning after the incident, however, the relays stopped, and the man in white left his seat.

The next day, the players who had seen the man in white headed to the field early. One stood in the batters box while another stood on the mound. From the batters box, it was clear the man in white had been perfectly positioned just to the right of the pitchers mound so that the batter would not need to move his own head, or even alter his gaze, in order to see his signal. "It's premeditated," said one of the players, "as if the guy was a sniper trying to find the best position to make a shot"

 Prime "man in white" suspect

When Beer Bros. manager Paul Piellusch suggested the Dusty Cleats were illicitly stealing signs in mid-July, it was not the first time the BLOG had heard such an allegation. In the summer of 2010, one of our reporters interviewed several players about allegations of sign-stealing from the tennis courts at Keogh Park. Then in January, the BLOG, provided independent analysis that showed statistical deviations in the Dusty Cleats hitting stats that he considered too great to be random chance.

As the BLOG began investigating the sign-stealing allegations, the charges also started to gain momentum in the mainstream media. In May, Banshees 3rd baseman Jason Bowers noted that their catcher was throwing down multiple signs with nobody on base against the Dusty Cleats and even mentioned the possibility that someone in the outfield stands could be relaying signs.

Similarly, in a June game at Keogh park, Red Dogs catcher Clifford Stacey started mixing up signs to pitcher Eric Hipken even when the Dusty Cleats didn't have men on base. On June 28th, Rusty Rebel Manager Hugh Armstrong said he thought Toronto was stealing signs from second base.

Potential man in the white suit

The next day, when asked by reporters if the Dusty Cleats were getting signs from outside the field of play, Armstrong went a step further, saying, "Could be. Obviously, if you feel like it's coming from somewhere else besides a player on the field, yeah, I do have issues with that." Armstrong told the media the Rusty Rebels would use multiple signs at Keogh, even with the bases empty, just as Cliff Stacey pioneered with the Red Dogs.

Dusty Cleats GM Chris Pulfer denies that his team has relayed signs from beyond the field of play. "That never happened, will never happen, not even a possibility," he told The BLOG. "I think it's a non-story because no one from the league ever has picked up the phone and called me about it. It's never been an issue, and I would expect them to do so if it was."

An T.O.T spokesman said "The Tottenham Old Timers has never received a complaint from any club about sign stealing by the Dusty Cleats, and this is first [we've been] made aware of it."

Stealing signs is as old as signal-calling itself. In 1876, the very first year of the National League, opponents of the Hartford Dark Blues claimed the club was somehow using a shack hung off a telegraph pole outside its home park to relay signals. Decades after the Giants stormed back to win the memorable 1951 NL pennant race, backup catcher Sal Yvars revealed that the team had deployed a clubhouse telescope, an electrician and a buzzer to pass stolen signs to its batters. Just last year, after the Rockies spotted a Phillies bullpen coach using binoculars, Colorado accused Philadelphia of stealing signs. Bud Selig downplayed the controversy, saying, "Stealing signs has been around for 100 years," before letting the Phillies off with a reprimand.

Man in the white suit candidate

Baseball's unwritten rules have held that traditional sign-stealing, in which a runner on second base picks up signals or hitters or coaches spot tendencies by pitchers and catchers, is fine if you can get away with it but that getting help from outside the white lines is out of bounds. Typically, players are loath to discuss the subject. For one thing, nobody wants to be a rat. And some guys think, If we've been hurt by another team stealing signs, why speak up? Wouldn't it be better to allow our divisional rivals to suffer the same fate?

And then there's the argument that it's unfair to judge a team by anything other than what happens on the field. "If we win games, I give credit to the players," Pulfer said. "If we go into another park and get beat, it's just reality. I'm going to tip my cap and realize we lost without excuses.  I'm going to give credit to the other team, and I expect other teams to do the same thing with us."

Many witnessed seeing this woman around Keogh Park....

In a white suit!!!!

Nonetheless, four players have confirmed they witnessed Dusty Cleats hitters being relayed signs from the Rogers Centre stands.

"I wouldn't have believed it unless I saw it myself," said one of those cowardly, named witnesses. Another of the players was so bothered by what he saw last year that he sent a text message to Lucky Stiffs outfielder, Jens Leppa, telling him to look out for someone at Keogh Park relaying signs. Leppa recently confirmed that he received that text and says he was looking from the bench during one game.  "From where I was sitting in the dugout 300 feet away, I couldn't see anything," he said.

So what can we see from the numbers? Statistically, the Blue Jays look like a team swinging out of their cleats at Rogers, with an unusual home-field advantage in hitting home runs.

A huge proportion of the Cleats power comes from their home ballpark. In 2011, the Cleats have blasted a whopping 146 homers at Keogh Park, just seven homers shy of the all-time home record set by the Lynch-Mob in 2005.

Many are convinced that this is the man in the white suit

Several Cleats have extreme splits in 2011. Dickson, for example, had a 1.118 OPS (on-base plus slugging) with 33 homers at Keogh, but an .079 OPS and 0 dingers on the road. Second Baseman Scott Barton has a 1.759 OPS with 15 homers in Keogh but a .106 OPS with 0 bombs on the at Coventry. John Harrett?  1.684 OPS at Keogh, .092 at Coventry. 

Now, by themselves, the above splits aren't conclusive, so to measure the effect of Keogh Park more precisely, The BLOG consulted with the World Baseball Academy. They have developed a method that generates park factors by comparing a player's performance in any given park with his performance in all other parks, not just in road games for that player (YAY!). This reduces statistical noise and offers a better estimate of how a park actually plays in a given season. The WBA found that for every ball that batters made contact with in 2010, Keogh Park added .011 home runs, up from a rate of just .002 from 2005 to 2009. That puts Keogh in 2010 among the top 3 percent of home run ballparks since 1950.

But only the Dusty Cleats, and not their opponents, got a home run boost in Keogh. Opposing batters, however, actually homered on contact at a below-average rate in Keogh.

By themselves, these numbers are circumstantial evidence. Unsupported by data, the four players' accounts might describe a scheme of uncertain impact. And without proper context, the Rusty Rebels decision to mask their signs could be chalked up to paranoia. But together, the numbers, the stories and the actions indicate one certainty: Every pitch to a Dusty Cleats' Player in Keogh Park is worth watching.

Parting Shots from The Dusty Cleats

“This whole thing is stupid,” an irate Pulfer began.  "It’s unbelievable that we’re sitting here to even talk about this. I understand we have to make ourselves accountable.  All I’ll say is there’s zero truth to this. I understand it’s part of today’s generation if there’s allegations, accusations, all that’s fine. The only thing is that baseball is a small family, it’s a small fraternity. I don’t think it’s too hard to find a former (Dusty Cleats) coach, a former player, a former front office executive, a clubhouse guy, a former field guy.? Instead, let’s find four players on some other team claiming that they saw the guy in the white shirt, they saw the UFO flying across the sky and let’s run a huge story and make a big stink.”

“Anybody who’s played baseball knows it’s impossible to do what they’re saying we’re doing,” said Brett Mabee, an active and humorous Tweeter throughout the day. “I can't buy a hit. You’d think we would dominate. We just have to laugh at it.”

“If somebody out there wants to be paranoid, go ahead,” Pulfer continued. “If we get in someone’s head and that’s going to impact them, great. I’m blown away this is this big. Why doesn’t everyone go through the footage. Spend a month, spend a year, spend your lifetime, go look for the man in the white shirt. Maybe you’ll find someone in a blue shirt, or a black shirt. Maybe you’ll see a dog. Spend the time, do a little work.”

The OBVIOUS man in the white suit

EDITOR:  So if you thought that was an unbelievably stupid story, try to muddle your way through this poorly researched ESPN piece.  I do more homework to write this stupid thing every week.  Disgraceful, but have a laugh.  ARTICLE

Welcome to Week 16

With only 3 weeks left in the season (where did it go?), this one may help sort out some standings chaos.  Or not.  Here are the games for the week and some of the impact. 

Dusty Cleats Vs. Hurtin' Units - Can the Cleats stay focused on the perfect season after clinching 1st place?  Can the Hurtin' Units regain their early season form before the playoffs?
Brew Jays Vs. Dog Catchers - This is a significant standings game.  A win by the Jays would pretty much remove the chance of the Dog Catchers from catching them as they would have a two game lead.  A win by the Dog Catchers would be good for the Woody's, Wild, Stiffs and Grisslies. 
Grisslies Vs. Dislocated Joints:  The Joints still have a chance to finish as high as 7th but need to run the table and get some help.  They could also finish as low as 14th, so they need to take care of business.  The Grisslies could finish anywhere from 2nd to 8th, but a win here would guarantee no worse then 7th.
Wild Vs. Lucky Stiffs:  Arguably the biggest game of the week.  A Wild win puts them in a dead heat with the Stiffs at 13-7 and both teams having 4 to play.  This is their only meeting so whoever wins will have the tie breakers so being tied would really mean up one for the Wild.  Conversely if the Stiffs win, Wild will be down 2 games (but really 3 because the Stiffs would then hold the tie breaker) making it all but impossible for them to finish second.
Dodge City Rounders Vs. Red Dogs:  The only hope the Rounders have of NOT finishing last is win their last three games, have the Rusty Rebels lose their last four games AND when they meet each other, Dodge City has to win by 3 or more.  Meanwhile, the Red Dogs are in a pack that could finish from 8th to 14th.  A win here could mean two spots in the standings. 
Torn Ligaments Vs. Banshees:  These teams are separated by a point with the Ligaments ahead and the Banshees having a game in hand.  Both teams are under .500 but have a real shot at making there as they're both a game under.  There is enough of a gap between these teams and those behind them that they don't have huge worries about being caught, but only one will be able to move up. 
Rusty Rebels Vs. Dog Catchers:  6-14 might not sound like much but the Rebels are getting hot at the right time.  They've gotten themselves into a position where they can move up further.  A win here could 'potentially' tie them with the Red Dogs and leap frog the Beer Bros.  The Dog Catchers beat the Brew Jays earlier, this game could suddenly be for 3rd place.  If not, they'll need this one to stay in the top-5 conversation.
Dusty Cleats Vs. Brew Jays:  Again, the Dusty Cleats are working for the perfect season as playing for standings are done for them.  The Brew Jays will of course be looking for the upset.  If they beat the Dog Catchers earlier, They could be playing for 2nd possibly and certainly for 3rd place.  A split this week would likely remove any chance of finishing second by still keep them alive for top-5.  Dropping two would start to look like between 5th and 7th. 
Hot Tub Woody's Vs. Beer Bros.:  The Beer Bros. are a point ahead of the Rebels and a point behind the Red Dogs.  There are enough points up there that they could still climb to 8th, but it would take 'the perfect storm'.  The Woody's are in a 5 team pack in a race for second.  12 - 4 since their 0 - 4 start, you've got to consider them to still be very hot. 
Red Dogs Vs. Lucky Stiffs:  If the Red Dogs beat Dodge earlier, this game would give them a legit shot at the middle of the standings.  A second loss this week would leave them vulnerable to be passed by both the Beer Bros. AND the Rusty Rebels.  If the Stiffs were to get their second win of the week they would eliminate the Dog Catchers and 'could' eliminate the Grisslies, Wild and Woody's depending on what they all do.  Two losses however could drop the Stiffs to 4th and make things very interesting. 

Here are the standings going into the week.  The column MAX is the most number of points that any particular team can get.