First Off...
A. This worked at about 90% last year.
B. Drawing names out of a hat is probably about as successful.
C. Who cares?
D. This is for entertainment value only and while I 'like' it, its neither scientific nor quantifiable. Personally I wouldn't trust it.
E. The games are played on the field not on paper (or in BLOGs).
F. BTW, this really only applies to the round robin portion because exact match ups beyond that are impossible to predict.
Best wishes to everyone in the Playoffs. Only one will be standing at the end but hopefully we all have fun getting to that point. Enjoy and don't get hurt!!!
HOW IT WORKS
This is entirely numbers based. If numbers bore you; you should leave now.
Okay...Go!
I know Doyle, Radar and John Harrett are still reading and if anyone else is there, here are some trends / stats that I found interesting. For the most part, this focuses on positive numbers only. There is no agenda to embarrass any team.
Strictly by the numbers, the equation works like this (Factor1)+(Factor2 X 0.5)+(Factor3)+(Factor4) = TOTAL. What the total means? That's a different story altogether.
Flaws? There are plenty in this. Measurements are weighted and arbitrary and there is nothing to say that the weights are right or even make any sense. "How" each factor is measured is inconsistent, yet I like it. The biggest thing that this misses is intangibles. One intangible that is somewhat accounted for is more recent performance, but other stuff like injuries, historical playoff performance etc, are just not available.
So again, a grain of salt please.
Here we go.
FACTOR 1
The first category is pretty much indisputable and that is how each team did in the regular season. I've ranked teams 1-14 and awarded points for order of finish. First place gets 14 points down to Fourteenth place getting one point. Its simple and you all know where you ranked so that's not subject for debate. This is your comparison against the league factor and here is how we all stood.
The second measurement is the who's hot factor. This is marginally more complicated but hardly rocket science. This looks at what a team has done in the second half of the schedule, their last 13 games. There is an assumption here which isn't a 100% accurate, and that is that your level of competition was the same in the 1st and 2nd halves of the season. Its not, so the stat is slightly skewed. Teams are ranked 1st through 14th counting only their last 13 games and are awarded a 1/2 point for each spot in the rankings. 1st place gets 7 points down to 14th getting .5 points. A couple of points on this: 1) This is weighted at 1/2 value because its half a season. 2) Just to be clear the standings you see below are "what it would look like" if the first 13 games of our season never happened.
This shows me two things.
- First, the Rusty Rebels, Dog Catchers, Torn Ligaments and Grisslies had quality second halfs that are somewhat lost in the overall standings.
- Second, The Brew Jays and Hurtin' Units didn't take their collective feet off the gas ALL freaking year! It took teams playing .769 and .692 clips to push them to 2nd and 3rd. Remarkable consistency from both teams.
FACTOR 3
The third measurement is the how we did against ourselves factor. Are you trending upward, staying even or falling off? So, I've looked each teams winning percentage from the first half and second half and compared them. If a team played .625 ball in the first half and .550 ball in the second half, their trend number was -.075. Each teams differential is sorted and ranked.
The way points are awarded in this category is somewhat different too. The 7 teams that are trending upward received a point based on their rank and the 7 teams trending downward lost a point based on their rank.
Also, the statistic is inclusive of the whole season although strongly weighted to the second half...that's why a full point is awarded as opposed to the the half point in the "who's hot factor". Whether you believe it or not is a different story.
- Is it fair that the Hurtin' Units had 4 times the number of wins as the Dusty Cleats in the second half yet got 2.5 fewer points? Probably not.
- Is it fair that Dodge City had an under .500 record in the second half yet got 4 more points than the Lucky Stiffs who were over .500? Probably not.
- Is it fair that I haven't needed to use a comb for 20 years? Probably not.
Then there is the fourth and final measurement and this one is usually the deal breaker. This is the luck of the draw factor and it can be a little controversial. We all play a balanced POWER RANKING playoff schedule. I get it. I support it entirely. It fair, its balanced and its a great way to do it. However, where "luck of the draw" comes into play is how each individual team did specifically against the teams that they match up against in the playoffs. Lets face it, we have actual tangible evidence of these results.
For instance.... Last year, the Grisslies had a rough first half, a good but not spectacular second half and ended up 12-12 for the year in 8th place. However the Grisslies got a dream match up for a team in the lower half of the draw. The Grisslies were 2-0 in the regular season against two of their opponents and 1-1 against the other two. In other words, they got 12 out of a possible 16 points in those games. As a point of reference, only one team has done better than that this year against their round robin competition.
So here is where luck of the draw really played out last year. Not only did the Grisslies come up from 8th place to get the bye, but one of the top ranked teams (who predominately wear red) matched up against teams that they had very poor records against during the regular season DESPITE their excellent overall record. Sadly, this provide to big component to an early exit. At least last year anyway. This factor is awarded at the value of the points earned. For example if you were 2-4-2 in the eight games you played against your round robin competition you would be awarded 6 points. 5-2-1 would be 11 points. Got it?
- Interestingly 10 of the 14 teams have records of .500 or better!
- Lucky Stiffs were dominate, and the Brew Jays, Dog Catchers and Hurtin' Units in complete control.
- There is as large a gap between 1st and 2nd (4points) as there is between 2nd and 11th.
- It looks like there are some disparities at the top and bottom and a lot of parity in the middle
So the moment you've been waiting for.....
- Remember that this is supposed to apply to the round robin as elimination games are whole different kettle of fish!
- If this is correct (I'm laughing too) then you can pretty much throw a blanket over the Rusty Rebels, Lucky Stiffs, Hurtin' Units, Dog Catchers and Brew Jays as the favourites to get the byes.
- Consider that the Brew Jays and Lucky Stiffs play each other....
- Consider that Hurtin' Units and Rusty Rebels play each other....
- Consider that the Rusty Rebels and the Dog Catchers play each other....
Hurtin’ Units, Keys to victory: Simply, keep being the Hurtin’ Units. This team has rebounded from ‘in game’ miscues better than any other and if they continue to be positive on the field their results will be too.
Brew Jays, Keys to victory: Stay away from the Lucky Stiffs and keep tearing the cover off of the ball. They were the highest scoring team in the league by a long shot which means that no lead against them is safe.
Rusty Rebels, Keys to victory: The best team in the second half with a 10-2-1 record. They only have one loss in their last 10 games. They need to keep believing that they are this good! Their hitting is off the charts and they may end up with 5 guys in the top 25.
Lucky Stiffs, Keys to victory: Not only did they finish fourth overall in the league but they have the best playoff schedule based on regular season results. The Stiffs gained 15 out of 16 possible points against their opponents.
Banshees, Keys to victory: Fifth place in the regular season and the fourth best playoff schedule. They have multiple players in the top 25 in hitting and are in the top 3 defensively in the league. They need all those components to click together.
The Wild, Keys to victory: The Wild were 7-4-2 in the first half and were in fourth place. If their clutch season ending win against the Hurtin’ Units is an indication that they’re back to that form, they’ll be back to being that team that no one wants to face.
Torn Ligaments, Keys to victory: The best defensive club in the league. While they finished the season with 2 losses, they were 5-2 over their last seven games and had the fifth best first half to second half improvement, most of which was against tough competition. If they sound defence holds they’ll be hard to bead.
Dog Catchers, Keys to victory: They played over .500 points better in the second half than they did in the first half. They were second only to the Rusty Rebels in points earned in the second half. They have the second best playoff schedule. The Dog Catchers look to be toughest to beat and it isn’t one aspect of play. As long as they stay healthy, they should be fine.
Dislocated Joints, Keys to victory: This is a funny team by their record. They are the only team to have 5 streaks of wins or losses of more than 3 games. This team is totally capable of going on a long winning streak based on their record. A quick start will be their biggest key. If they start winning, they'll probably keep winning.
Grisslies, Keys to victory: Simply to maintain their play over the last 10 games (7-2-1). Average runs scored during this period went up by over 4 per game and average runs allowed went down by more than 4. An 8 run per game differential was huge and will have to be maintained for post season success.
Hot Tub Woody’s, Keys to victory: Only one loss in the last four games is a good start. The Woody’s were 8-6-1 after fifteen games and then hit an elongated skid which they’ve seemingly come out of. They are an even .500 against their playoff competition so this should be a very competitive playoff run.
Dodge City Rounders, Keys to victory: The fourth most improved team in the second half of the season and they‘re are playing with new found confidence that they have to maintain. Wins over the Stiffs and Wild were huge for them. Their best hitters need to not slump and get a few others to chip in here and there and an upset will be very doable.
Red Dogs, Keys to victory: Their record isn’t really an indication of the team. They’ve been missing Mike Candy for half the season, missing Matt Foerster for almost all the season and only getting Jamie McClean in recent weeks. The team you see in the playoffs will have a very different look. This is a legitimate X-factor team. They could go to the final or not see Sunday and neither would surprise me.
Dusty Cleats, Keys to victory: It would be easy to dismiss this team, I would advise against that. The biggest thing for the Cleats is that some serious leg issues to a couple of key players are resolved. Add that to the dependability of the outfield and their bats and think there is a formula for winning some games there. I personally would love to see it!
There you have it folks....that's all I've got.
There will be a blog on Tuesday night with game reports submitted by Paul Gyori, Mark Doyle, Andy Gee, Paul Piellusch and Steve Ross. My thanks to you all!
24 comments:
Shit dude, you gotta get laid!!!!
Nice....actually, my girl friend wrote this BLOG for me...
...Yeah...thats right...ummmm....Morgan Fairchild, yeah, thats the ticket!
So what you're saying, is that the better regular season teams will do well in the playoff round-robin?
Yeah....that may be a WEE bit of an over simplification but sure, if that works for you, that's cool.
However, I think this shows that the Dog Catchers are more of a team to be reckoned with than the regular season standings (they finished 8th) would indicate at 1st blush.
And sure, the stiffs and rebels who finished 3rd and 4th would still be easy calls to get they byes, but I think they're actually favourites to get the byes. A subtle difference, but whatever.
If you went by the standings you might think The Wild had an outside shot at the bye, but I actually dropped them a few spots. The Grisslies went up a few spots but still in the middle.
Nobody else moved more than a spot.
Beware the dog catchers
Why are the Cleats ranked so low? I just don't get it. I think you should crunch the numbers again. As a team they averaged scoring 8 runs a game and only gave up 15 a game. That means that they could win 3 games by 8-0 and then only lose one game 60-8... that's good enough to get out of the round robin, right? Just saying it's possible, sorta, kinda... hey look, a shiny thing...
A few intangibles and commentary:
1) The Rebels may have a difficult time in the round robin given their draw - they play the Units, Dog Catchers and Torn Ligaments. So achieving a strong run differential will be a big factor for their chances. If they make it with a bye, look out for the Rebels to run the table.
2) The Dog Catchers are missing Bob McCullough, which is a big hole to fill.
3) Baseball fundamentals and station-to-station are key factors. Team with the most balanced defense is the Torn Ligaments.
4) Everyhting else aside, it will be the bats that will determine who moves on. Teams can survive 2-3 guys having off-games but any more than that or if those 2-3 guys bat togther, there's a loss and maybe a -7. No bats = no wins. It's the Units, Brew Jays and Wild that have the most balanced attack.
RE: Intngibles
1) That's why the Rebels are the #1 seed in my opinion.
2) I didn't know Bob was out, however, the Dog Catchers have not been a one player team and are still a favourite for a bye in my view.
3) Agreed
4) Yes, bats are critical in the Round Robin, but the defense is more important after that.
Survival!
The Hurtin Units are still the team to beat. Until they are beat you have to assume they are the favourates. The Dog catchers are definately a team to beware of. I like the Brew Jays chances too.I also like the Rusty Rebels but as someone already pointed out they have the toughest schedule by far. Bats will win this thing in my opinion. None of the top teams have weak defence so I predict the hottest sticks wins.
Banshees - Slammin' Sammy could fold like the Italian soccer team in the World Cup. Look out!
Brew Jays - solid team with a lot of fire power. The key is to chip away at them and play solid D. Don't get into a shootout.
Dislocated Joints - I heard they are battling some injuries which hurts the team.
Dodge City Rounders. Kevin Nicholl, Kevin Moon, Styke and Al Fry can be a solid core and tough outs. Sandy is a good pitcher and change dictate the pace of the game.
Dog Catchers - who knew that Randy H juiced up on 'roids. He claims his retirement pusher helped him over the top. The team is solid and will pick away.
Dusty Cleats - not a lot of fire power here. They need to slap a lot of singles to stay in the game.
Grissles - have been hot. Big sticks need to hit during crucial times. Their outfield is pretty solid.
Hot Tub Woody's - the big guns need to come out and play. Without them, their offense sputters. D is ok.
Hurtin Units - nothing fancy here but solid bats from top to bottom. D is stable. Jimmer could be on the trophy this year.
Lucky Stiffs - best P in the league and solid bats with guys like Cam. The big three need to lead their team if they have a chance.
Red Dogs - Big bats need to come out to their games or else it could be an early trip to the beer tent.
Rusty Rebels - solid team with a lot of fire power. D is good. We can't let Doyle get to a 3rd consecutive championship.
The Wild - always find ways to win. Chuck and Ross up the middle provide the best 1-2 punch in the league for D and O. Just watch Tony and his pinch-runners in playoffs.
Torn Ligaments - decent team with a tough core to get out. Defense is suspect and outside of the core, the lineup drops.
Prediction - Dodge City vs. Rusty Rebels in the final. Rusty Rebels will win.
All of these commenters have some very good points but I will wait until I hear from the Batman. His prediction is where I will put my money
Robin: "holy standings Batman, it's that time of the year again"
Batman: "you mean where some teams 'tank' and some 'suprise'.
Robin: "who's gonna win it.....are you going with your 'Playoff Prognosticator'
Batman: "Yes Robin, the final 4 will be...........Rusty Rebels because Hughie 'don't call me Louie' Armstrong plays the sacks well"
Robin: "if he could only play outfield"
Batman: " next I predict...The Lucky Stiffs...because Cam looks like the Joker...."
Robin:" I see a little pancake makeup and some rouge....yup I can see that".
Batman:"although John Stiff is rumored to play I'm still picking them.."
Batman: "next....the Hurtin Units......with Mr Freeze Taylor at the helm"
Robin: "you mean if he thaws his glove out"
Batman: " lastly...the Grisslies are playing well right now and they have Cal "Elmer Fudd" Steeves "
Robin:" isn't he kinda old?"
Batman:" so is blue Cheese Robin...it gets better with time"
The Grisslies? Was that Batman or Crackman? The tenth team in semi-finals? That's worse than the predictions of the Dog Catchers getting the bye.
The other 3 predictions make some degree of sense, but it seems like lots of people are down playing the monster offense of the Brew Jays. I'm not as statistically inclined as some people who obviously have a lot of times on their hands but I think the Brew Jays scored 100 runs more than the average team.
Hmmmmmm....
If I didn't know better, I would think that people are posting predictions to 'deflect' attention from their own teams.
What benefit is there to finishing first in the regular season? If you look at the playoff schedule, it is perfectly balanced. The 1st and 14th placed teams play the same 4 teams in the round robin. The 2nd and 13th placed teams play the same 4 teams and so on. Shouldn't a team be rewarded for finishing 1st with an easier trip to the knock-out round? Has it always been this way?
(If you award a point for final rankings, all teams face a round robin value of 30 points.)
Turd,
The advantage is the higher seed is always the home team so if you finish 1st you get 4 home games. Also if you go to the Banquet you will see the Hurtin Units presented with jackets. Everything else is balanced for a reason. This is Rec ball
http://tottenhamoldtimers.blogspot.com/p/team.html
Paul Gyori's Playoff prequel! Well done Paul & thanks!
My money is on the team with most amount of short guys...Go Units!
What would that say about the league.
Squirtin Units win it all!!!!
Brew Jays? Blue Jay rip offs
Lucky Stiff----at our age there all lucky
Dis located Joint---- broken bongs
Hot TuB WooDy--- see lucky stiff
Isn't it funny that the dog Catchers are chasing the Grissles, red Dogs and Banshees all around Dodge City with torn Ligaments and Dusty Cleats on.
Now thats WILD
Freaks.............
YEAH. I knew they forgot a team!!!
The Freaks rock! I don't know if they'll get the bye or not, but I still think they're a lock for Sunday. GO FREAKS!
A book-maker hanging outside of the beer store has set the over/under in the Hurtin' Units V. Rusty Rebels game at 23.5
I like the over.
Son of a Biatch. He's a bookie. I avoid him like the plaugue. I thouht he was collecting money for a good cause
September 21st Lines:
HURTIN' UNITS -4 Rusty Rebels (O/U 24)
BREW JAYS -1/2 Lucky Stiffs (O/U 34 1/2)
BANSHEES Pick Torn Ligaments (O/U 16)
THE WILD -1/2 Hot Tub Woodies (O/U 21 1/2)
There must be sharp money coming in on the Units, that line has gone up since lunch time!
I might go under on the Ligaments/Banshees game.
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