Stats Week 6

Hey The Beechey!!!   Its 6am, Get UP!  

Its stats time!

Oh and Bickford?  Phone going off?  Giddy-up, get the Cheerios and Coffee, you won't believe who the 4th best rookie is!

The Beer Cup

The Dislocated Joints remain owners of the Beer Cup.  Bastards.  The Grisslies had an opportunity to get their names on the shirt but failed to take advantage their opportunity!

Teams that have held the Beer Cup(3)

• Beer Bros.
• Hot Tub Woody's
• Dislocated Joints

Teams that have defended the Beer Cup(1)

• Dislocated Joints (3)

Teams that have yet to play for the Cup(10)

• Blues Brothers
• Dodge City Rounders
• Dog Catchers
• Dusty Cleats
• Draft Kings
• Gruesome Devils
• Hurtin' Units
• Rusty Rebels
• Tap Masters

An Interesting Trend

EDITORS NOTE:  Some of you are aware that I have a little stats group comprised of Scott Peters, Mark Doyle, Geoff Keogh and Kevin Boston.  They are odd people, but pretty harmless.  Collectively, we like to hack up numbers.  One of them (nameless) put together the very factual and verified report you see below.  Its kind of hammers the poor Grisslies.  I promised the (nameless) guy that I wouldn't identify him as the author.  The point of this note is to simply indicate that I didn't write it.  I would NEVER slag my own team like this.    

Many people think I (anonymous) make too much of stats.  However, many people like them.  I (anonymous) believe that somewhere in these numbers are trends that will give some reasonable insight into what 'might' happen.  I (anonymous) also like things that make you go Hmmmm!  However, the thing with number sit that you need a 'complete' view to come up with a trend.  The other thing is that there is always something else to add or consider so you never really know when the view is complete. 

I (anonymous) think I've go a good Hmmmm! this week.  Now you'll have to bear with me.

In 2011, the finals matched the best offense (Dusty Cleats) against the best defense (Grisslies).  In 2012, the finals matched the best offense (Brew Jays) against the 4th best defense (Beer Bros.).  In both cases, as we know, defense carried the day.  To me (anonymous) , there is a trend here.

1.  Defense is more dependable than offense.
2.  Being near the top of one of these categories will earn you a long playoff run.

But that's kind of the lame easy way out of trending.  Lets look at these 4 teams a little more closely.

2011 Dusty Cleats - 1st in offense; 3rd in defense (Avg 2)
2011 Grisslies - 4th in offense; 1st in defense (Avg 2.5)
2012 Brew Jays - 1st in offense; 6th in defense (Avg 3.5)
2012 Beer Bros. -  3rd in offense; 4th in defense (Avg 3.5)

So while 3 out of 4 finalists were "league leaders" in a category, what you see overall is tremendous balance.  The "Avg" is simply the rank in both categories added together and divided by 2.  I (anonymous) haven't found any team with a better "Avg" in the last two years than these 4.  So in my (anonymous) mind, the right 4 teams made the finals.  There were no significant upsets despite what the standings may tell you.  I (anonymous) think what happens IN those final games is just luck of the draw, good fortune, or injuries.  Its the getting there that matters.

So what does that mean for this year?  So glad you asked.

Through Wednesday's games (I (anonymous) need time to work on this stuff) The top 5 offensive teams are:

1.  Gruesome Devils - 17.20 runs per game
2.  Hurtin' Units - 14.40 runs per game
3.  Draft Kings - 14.33 runs per game
4.  Dislocated Joints - 14.00 runs per game
5.  Hot Tub Woody's - 13.85 runs per game

The top 5 defense teams are

1. Draft Kings - 9.16 runs per game
2. Grisslies - 9.71 runs per game
3. Tap Masters- 9.85 runs per game
4. Brew Jays - 10.14 runs per game
5. Gruesome Devils - 10.20 runs per game
5. Blues Brothers - 10.20 runs per game

The Draft Kings combined average of 2.0 is equal to the Dusty Cleats incredible run of 2011 and the Gruesome Devil average of 3.0 is the 3rd best over the last 3 years.

However.  We're only a quarter of the way through the season, so I (anonymous) wouldn't plan parade routes quite yet.

Now on the topic of EPIC.  The Brew Jays (9.85 runs per game), Blues Brothers (9.4) and Dodge City Rounders (8.66) are all pretty much atrocious offensively this season.  I'll (anonymous) say awful.  I (anonymous) could use stronger words but some guys are sensitive.

In 2011, no team averaged under 11 runs per game.  In 2012 we had three teams under 10 runs per game; Banshees (9.75), Hot Tub Woody's (8.95) and Dusty Cleats (7.9).  So why would I (anonymous) highlight these horrific offensive teams from the past 3 years?  Well as bad as you might think these bats were and are (and they are), they are all the 1927 Yankees compared to the 2013 Grisslies who are scoring at the incredible clip of 5.42 runs per game.

PER GAME!!!!

So lets put it in perspective.  The Dusty Cleats scored a paltry 190 runs in 2012.  This year's Grisslie squad on pace to score 131.  Good lord.   More perspective?  That Cleats squad failed to score 10 runs in a game 16 times over the course of the year and THEY ARE STILL ON PACE TO OUTSCORE THE GRISSLIES!!!!

BY 32%!!!!

Here are some numbers for you:  9, 5, 5, 2, 2, 8, 7.  You know what those numbers are?  The number of runs that the Grisslies have scored in each game this season.  That is seven consecutive starts not getting to double digits in runs.  You know how many times that's happened in the last three years?

NEVER.

The Dodge City Rounders had a 5 games stretch in 2011 where they didn't get to 10 runs.  And the Hurtin' Units had a 4 game run last year.  But no one has really been close to seven.

Its a damned good thing the Grisslies have the 2nd ranked defense.  Good and surprising.  The defense is always under the gun because the Grisslies never have never led by more than 2 runs.  But even an average ranked defense would probably double the Grisslies +/-.  They need to play mistake free ball just to stay in games.  

So its all doom and gloom.  Oh, except that when we played them last week and were shaking hands afterward I (anonymous) heard Rob say, "meet you in finals!"  so they might be okay yet!

STATS

Starting with the league standings that are available on the website.  The Draft Kings lead the way with 11 points!   Nice start for the rookie captains. 

The baseball standings, which now have a tie thanks to those same dumbass Draft Kings.  First off, baseball doesn't have ties.  Hate that.  Secondly, it messes up my GBL stat.  But what is interesting in this is that the Tap Masters are alone in 2nd place while the Dog Catchers drop to 3rd a position they share with the Gruesome Devils, Dislocated Joints and Beer Bros.

The Grisslies are in 14th place in both.  YaY. 

Average to date....The complete list of course available on the website.  I hope you all enjoyed the lead that Scott Barton gave you guys this year. Its over. 

Brad has played 33% of the season and is 44% of the way to the runs record.  Right now I'd say the odds are in his favour!  Keep it going Brad.

A nice mix of names is developing on this list. The big average hitters, the key contributors, they guys who get on with power and those with speed.  Scotty's 79 hits still looks pretty safe.  For now. 

The Dog Catchers being the only team to play 8 games is evident, but so too is the fact that their guys do a good job of showing up and getting lots of ABs in a the game.  They can mash.  The Brew Jays are a bit odd in this list. They aren't among the leaders in runs so you wonder why they are so high in ABs when 7 other teams have played the same number of games. 

Again....the differences between these next two lists.

Once you get passed Gere and Glecoff being somewhat ridiculous, Brad and Cox stand out on the list below. and Troy Hope and Mike Candy on the list above. Candy's scoring average (.727) is .227 points better than his batting average.  Actually, that may be the right way to look at that.  Scott?  Radar? Anyone?

Slipetz fell out of the overall top 10, but is tied for the rookie lead. Daryl Hagar is new to the list because I had forgot to include him as rookie until this week.  Which reminds me.  If you see a mistake, please tell me.  I won't be offended.  All these spread sheets are manual and there are bound to problems. 6 rookies at .700 or better, very nice. 

What the hell is in the water on Fraser Ave????  Mike and James up 677 collectively?  The other stunner is Rick Hjelholt. Not that he's doing well. The fact that he had the 3rd biggest increase in the league last year and his following it up with ANOTHER huge jump!  Way to go Rick.  Oh, and there appears to be no championship hangover for Gere, Len or Lou. 

Okay, the 1st quarter of the season has closed as everyone has played 6 or more games.  The best batting average in the 1st Quarter goes to Brad Young.  Congrats Brad.  Going forward you will only see the winner of the segment, not a top 10 list. 

And as we start Quarter 2 of the season, some of us have a chance to wipe the slate clean.  Others will try to keep their run going.  To qualify for the league batting title you need 2 at bats per team game played.  This is not a league award.  For this you need 3 at bats per team game.  The reason is simple.  We're looking for who is hot, players on a roll.  If you play 2 games and get six at bats in each, you would qualify for the six game segment if we did 2 ab/per.  But that doesn't show you're hot or consistent.  This does.  Right now you need to be batting 1.000  in Q2 to get on the list. 

And the winner of the most runs scored in the 1st quarter?  Brad Young!

And the leader so far in the 2nd quarter?  Brad Young!  This stat doesn't have an At Bat minimum as its a cumulative number. 

Things you may have missed this week. 

For the Grisslies Game Seven BLOG, Hurtin' Units, click HERE
For the Grisslies Game Eight BLOG, Dislocated Joints, click HERE
For the Dislocated Joints game summary, click HERE
For the Hurtin' Units BLOG, click HERE
For the Donini 3 stars, click HERE
For the League Website, click HERE