Bonus BLOG: Playoff Stats

Rob:  Well buddy....that was a pretty good year!
Doug:  I suppose.
Rob:  Why so glum chum?  We made Sunday, we acheived our goal.
Doug:  I guess.
Rob:  Seriously!  Snap out of it!  What's up?
Doug:  Ah....it didn't end how I wanted.  I'll be fine later, not so much now. 
Rob:  What the heck?  You need help and I mean PROFESSIONAL help!  Have you thought about going to see The Rapist?
Doug:   Huh?  The what????
Rob:  The Rapist.  Have you thought of seeing him?
Doug:  What in gods name are you talking about?
Rob:  Doug, seriously.  Get your feet back on the ground will you?  The Rapist is a person that you tell your problems to and they help guide you to a solution. 
Doug:  Are you talking about a THERAPIST???
Rob:  Is that how you say it?
Doug:  Yeah Rob, that's how everyone says it.  There is no space between the "e" and the "r" in therapist. 
Rob: I've learned so much this year. 
Doug:  Me too.
Rob: There you go, getting all glum again .... want me to mess up another word?
Doug: No.  I'm just going to drink my wine and think things that we can do different next year?
Rob: Oh yeah?  Any ideas?
Doug:  A few.  I've thought of a few new victims for next year's BLOGs. 
Rob: Any you care to share?
Doug: Well....I may have a clue or two in the "Thank You" BLOG.  But I've got to make sure its cleverly worded and not too obvious.  Know what I mean?
Rob: Okay, sure....I get it.  I've got a cleverly worded one for you, really subtle.  You can use it if you want. 
Doug:  Did you just stay subtle?
Rob: Yeah, why?
Doug: Whey didn't you say 'subtext' or 'subtitle' or 'suffragette city' or something like that; how you normally do?
Rob:  I told you dog...I was just clowning with the word stuff. 
Doug:  Dog?
Rob:Woof!
Doug: Okay, what is your subtle idea to give a hint about one of next year's BLOGs?
Rob: Okay....you're doing your thank you wrap up right?
Doug:  Right
Rob:  [pretending to type] thanks Pete, thanks Steve, thanks Tony....
Doug: Yeah.....
Rob: Blah, blah, blah....and then right in the middle [still pretending to type], you go "next year I'm doing a BLOG on Doris.
Doug:  Oh, that's subtle.  I'll just tell them. 
Rob: Yeah!
Doug: That's stupid.
Rob: No its not...because Doris will read that and go, "Doug's never that obvious, now I don't know if he's going to do one about me or not." and other people will go, "Oh wow, Doris is going to plowed on the BLOG next year, but wait, that was pretty obvious.  Maybe its not about Doris, maybe its about me!  Maybe Doris is an anarchist or a phobia!"   Now that's clever, isn't it?
Doug:  I'm amazed you got subtle right.  Its acronym not anarchist and its pseudonym not phobia.  
Rob: I know....see how I distracted you right there?  Even you don't know if you're doing one on Doris next year. 
Doug: You make my head spin. 
Rob: Right round like a record baby, right round!

I understand that only the 'hardcore' are left reading.  So this is probably for Scott, Radar and Mark mostly.  I suppose we could have done this at the Legion, but matching schedules is tough.  I thought it would be fun to take a look back at what our collective league picks were and how we fared against reality.  Also, I can support or poke holes in all the statistical data and where it lead me.  The other thing is that this is the second year with this playoff format of 15 teams and 3 pools and there might be a trend or two emerging from the format.  Or not. 

But before that, lets look at the actual playoff stats in the same manner we looked at the regular season numbers.  If we do this year over year (provided we continue to find a victim who will do it) we'll start to see "playoff performers" emerge; and this year we have some stand outs! So lets go!

Lots of great playoff averages here to brag about.  14 of the top 25 hit .800 or better and no doubt that Holmann was nothing short of awesome at .920.  However, I didn't need to look at this to know that Matt Foerster had an absolutely insane playoff. His 29 playoff hits were more than twenty one of our players got during the entire regular season!  That's a pretty good week!  And every ball he hit was a rocket. 

The Brew Jays played one more game than everyone, so its not surprising to see more of them on lists that are just totals and not percentage based.  Jamie, seemingly led off every game with a single and wound up scoring.  And nice to see Bill Cloutier high on this list and nudging a .700 average. 

You have to go to the 17th spot to find a player that isn't a Hurtin' Unit of Brew Jay and that's Beer Bros. lead off man Winston Gayle.  In all, there are only four teams represented as Don Curran sneaked in there at the end on behalf of the Dog Catchers. 

Clayton Avery had a magical year hitting .800 during the regular season and the production continued as he scored a league leading 17 runs in the playoffs. 

 Pendlebury.  17 hits, 16 runs.  Yeah, sure.  That's defendable!
  

Everyone in pool B, plus the Dog Catchers, Dodge City and Brew Jays would have no trouble whatsoever in believing the top of this list.  If Neil didn't kill you, Winston did.  If Winston didn't kill you Neil did.  Just for fun, sometimes they'd both kill you.  I could only find one instance over 7 games where the Beer Bros. lead off and #2 hitters made consecutive outs.  Geez. 

Well gents, this is the last time you'll be referred to as rookies!  Hmmmmmm......Maybe Handley doesn't have enough regular season plate appearances to shed the rookie tag.  I'll have to see about that.  Six Rookies in total over .800 for the playoffs!  I knew it was a great crop!! 

This is a little different than normal.  For this I compared everyone's regular season average to their playoff average and tried to isolate those that had great playoff performances.  I'd like to comment on all of them, but I'll just pick out a few at the risk of offending the rest.  Sorry.

First, Bones!  Leading the charge hitting a wicked .765 for the playoffs!  That was huge.  Skipping down to Dave Fleming who got stronger as the playoffs went on.  He hit through shifts and legged out doubles hitting a cool .800.  Anyone who saw the Grisslies run last year isn't surprised by Gord Robertson's September performance.  Gary Cox is a really interesting one.  Gary hit .624 last season and raised his average this year by .101 points to .725.  That alone is impressive, but he wasn't done.  He brought his "A" game to the playoffs and jumped his average another .142 points to .867!!!  Nice work!  And one of my favourite players, the only Beer Bros. to play all 31 games this year, Al Bales.  Between attendance and his raised playoff performance I hope he gets an extra cut of the playoff share!  A great week for all those on the list. 

Now, this section still deals with playoff stats and it focuses on contributions to each team.  It measures and ranks OBA, Total Hits, At Bats, Runs, Runs Per Hit, Runs Per At Bat.  The numbers you see in those columns are the person's percentage or number, not their rank.  Their rank on the team totaled and on the right hand side.  The lowest you could possibly get is 6 which we haven't seen.  However there are a handful of single digit numbers which are off the charts incredible!.  Top 4 on each team plus ties are included.

 

Okay.... I think we're done with the playoff stats.  Mostly.

This is where it goes a little sideways.   First, I wanted to take a look at how we measured up in our predictions for the playoffs byes and try to judge the value of the regular season stats being used as a harbinger of what can occur in the post-season. 

There are two camps on the whole stats thing.  1) there's too much.  2) there's not enough.  People in camp 1, tend to believe that there is no statistical value in the regular season and that a 5 seed is totally capable is upsetting a 1 seed in the playoffs.  The truth is that I agree with them to a point; but my contention is that while a 5 can upset a 1, the numbers can give you a hint that its coming.  The people in camp 2 are usually too busy chewing the end of a pencil and creating complicated excel formulas to really get into the argument.

I guess we'll start with our voting.

A quick run through ... We predicted neither bye team from Pool A, 1 from Pool B and 1 from Pool C.  33% overall.  That sucks.  If we take the top 10 as teams to make it through the round robin we had 80%, missing on the Hurtin' Units and Dog Catchers. 

That's the "emotional voting".  The not using the regular season stats as a bench mark.  Lets see if those results would have spun things any differently. 

So lets look at Pool A and see how it matched up.   

So, strictly statistically, the team with the best record against their competition was the #2 seed, Grisslies.  Not coincidentally, the Grisslies did finish 1st in Pool A.  The 2nd bye went to the Hurtin' Units who, by record, should have been the last place team in the pool.  (1/2)

You can flip a coin between the Gruesome Devils and Brew Jays for 3rd place as the Jays played one less game in the division; however both made the wild card game Saturday.  I'm prepared to call this a wash.

Where I find this most interesting are things like the opening night match of the Brew Jays and Hurtin' Units and most people thinking that it would be a beat down of 1 over 12.  Sure, it could have been, but the Units had lost 2 one run decisions to the Jays this season.  That doesn't mean they'd suddenly win or win large, but it did mean (to me) that they didn't sweat them like I did.  To the Units the Brew Jays were just another team.  Then their next team was the Cleats who HAD beat them AND the Gruesome Devils who beat them twice!  I don't know if a first place club could have a tougher round robin set up and they survived it.  Surviving was a bit of surprise to me, but it also made them more dangerous. 

Lo and behold!  Two for two on the best regular season record getting the bye!  This time the second bye, but a bye nonetheless.  The Woody's were the four seed but they were the only club in the division to register 5 wins against the rest of the group.  Hell, no one even had 4!  So the Woody's Vs. Red Dogs game didn't surprise me, that made them 3 for 3 against them.  Their only loss in the playoff pool would be against the Beer Bros., who I hear are pretty good.

Speaking of those Bros., they had the second most points in the pool going in AND the best plus minus and the stats assuredly pointed to them getting the bye.  Not necessarily a brave prediction picking a second seed, but this is the 2nd of 2 pools so far where the 1st place wasn't the obvious choice to get the bye.

The Red Dogs looked solid to either get the second bye or an elimination game going in, but they were clipped by the surprising and opportunistic Banshees, who were the only team to get through to the wild card game with 3 points.  They had to be considered a huge surprise not only getting through on 3 points, but entering the playoff pool with the fewest points and worst plus/minus.

This pool is a WIN in stats bearing out, at least in my mind.  So one win, one split. (3/4)

I let it be known that, personally, I was cheering for the Rusty Rebels despite all the statistical data against them.  I voted for them in the friggin' poll.  The stats were right.  I was wrong.  The stats showed the Joints having a pretty easy time with this.  They showed that the Rusty Rebels were in really tough.  They showed that you could throw a blanket over Dodge, the Stiffs and Dog Catchers and there wasn't much to choose from between wins and losses.  However, Dodge had the best defense of the 3, but for a club that had so many offensive weapons, they had trouble scoring against these particular teams, averaging only 9.5 runs per game.  So what happened in the playoffs, the Rounders would score only 10.75 runs a game (down 2 runs from the reg season) and it cost them as they slipped to 2-2 and got the second bye by the skin of their teeth.

The 'surprise' team shouldn't have been much of a surprise as after wins and loses, the Dog Catchers had the best plus/minus in the division AND the most runs scored.

I think this is pretty much a win for the stats, but we'll call it a tie for the sake of argument and call using the Stats being 4/6 in predicting the bye teams, while our league voting was 2/6.

Just for fun, and because I'm a geek, lets look at wins and losses by seeding over the past couple of years and look for other season by season trends.  Considering that we've only had two years under this format, trends might be tough to establish, but interesting tid-bits may emerge.  .

In 2011, the 1st place teams combined, wins, losses and +/- dominant over the rest of the league.  So much so that the 2nd thru 5th spots were all minuses and only the 2nd place group was even .500.  I suppose you'd have to say that this "is the way its supposed to work". 

Well not so much this year.  The 2nd place teams had the best record this time around and the 1st place clubs were only a single win ahead of the collection of teams in 3rd!  The year before, 1st and 3rd were separated by 5 wins.  Also the 4th and 5th place clubs jumped over the teams in 3rd and 3 of the 5 groups had positive plus minuses.

2012 was clearly more balanced.  There wasn't really a lot to chose between from top to bottom in the league.

So here are some interesting (to me) bits of information that have fallen out of this format:

• In both years the team that got the 1st bye from Pool B won the Championship.  
• In both years the them that won the Championship had to defeat the regular season Champions in the final.  
• In both years, the team that won the Championship was the first team eliminated from the playoffs in the previous year.  That makes the Rusty Rebels the early odds on favourite to win the 1st bye in Pool B next year and win it all.  
• In combining the 2 years, there have been 20 teams survive the round robin portion of the tournament.  12 have been byes and 8 have moved to elimination games. 
• The Dog Catchers are the only team to play in the elimination game in both years and they are 2-0 in those games. 
• Of the 13 teams that have played each of the last two seasons, only the Rusty Rebels and Banshees have not Played a Sunday game.  
• In the last 2 years, four teams (2011 Dusty Cleats, 2011 Lucky Stiffs, 2012 Beer Bros., 2012 Dislocated Joints) have gone 4-0 through the round robin.  
• In the last 2 year, no team has been held to zero points.  (the low is 1 point by the 2012 Tap Masters)
• Under this format, only one team has made it passed the round robin with an under .500 record. (2012 Banshees, 1-2-1).  
• 13 teams over the last 2 year have finished with 2-2 records.  All have moved on, 6 as byes to Sunday and 7 to elimination games. 
• Runs were down dramatically in the playoffs .... During the round robin last year there were 785 runs scored by 15 teams; this year there over a 100 fewer for a total of 670.
  Hopefully you're reading this in stages....because this has been a lot of writing!
  
  Here's one for you....I keep hearing that its a new team every year...blah, blah, blah.  Do you believe there is no bearing on the team?  Just a name?  I'm not sure.

The Joints have had completely different teams over the passed two years and the best record in the round robin!  You could say, sure, but they were the 3rd seed overall, they were supposed to be good!  True, but they were 14th overall last year and still went 2-2 in the round robin. 

• This is (the white) each team's record under the last two years under this format.  
• Does not include Tap Masters, Gruesome Devils, Torn Ligaments or Wild (not "The Wild).  
• 6 of the 13 teams list have +500 records, 2 at .500 and 5 below.  
• Only 6 teams have positive +/-'s.  the last column (blue), indicates how many games the team has played after the Round Robin portion over the last 2 years.  This DOES NOT include the elimination game.  For example, in both years, the Dog Catchers won the elimination game and then lost in the Quarter finals, so that's 2 games played after the round robin.  
• The Brew Jays have had the worst defense in the round robin over the last 2 years and have played the most post round robin games (tied). 
• The Joints have the best overall record over the last two years and the second best plus/minus and they've played one post robin game each year with quarter final loses both times.   

And that IS IT for stats until the 2013 prediction BLOGS come out....In the meantime, I continue to work on the "thank-you' edition.

Cheers.