No Whistles

Lets look at the ALDS.  I'm going to do this selfishly about things I was right about.  And things I was wrong about.  And where context matters.

First, I thought the Jays had a good shot at game one.  They lost.
Second, I thought the Jays were pretty much a lock for game two.  They lost.

Reassessing things I predicted on Facebook (not here) wins in game 3 and 4.  They won.
Back to the blog I said game 5 was a no doubter.  They won.

Yep....picked them 5 times, was right 3, but what the hell, I've got the same record as the Jays.  But here are some things that I hit on.

• Hamels 0-2 in four starts against the Jays with a 6.97 ERA. 
• Hamels is now 0-3 in 6 career starts and lowered his ERA to 4.98. 
• "Stroman gets better the deeper he gets into a game". 
• In innings 1 & 2 over the two games Stroman had a 6.75 ERA
• In the other 9 innings he pitched his ERA was 2.00
• "The kid gives up 2 through 7"
• The kid gave up 3 runs through 7.  
• "GAllardo will likely work 5+ innings but not complete the sixth.  He'll probably give up 3 runs by that time.  He'll probably depart the game in trouble with runners on"
• Gallardo worked 5 plus 4 batters in the 6th.  bang on.  He gave up 2 runs.  Close.  He departed have allowed a run a runner at 3rd base.  
• "So if history repeats, Price works 7 innings, he'll have given up a run, struck out 9 and walked 2."
• He worked 7.  He struck out 5.  He walked 2.  
• Of course the BIG miss here is that he gave up 5 runs not 1.  However, if you had told me that Price worked 7 innings, threw 90 pitches and gave up 5 hits I would have taken it ALL DAY!  Hell his WHIP was 1.00.  Bad luck.  
• On Game 5, "The Cole Hamels factor.  He now has 5 career starts against the Jays and zero wins.  Zero.  The Jays hit him the 1st time.  They'll hit him this time.  They hit him every time."
• Done
• "The bats are awake.  I have faith in the pitching.  The pen outside of the big three (Osuna, Lowe and Sanchez) shouldn't be a factory at all.  
• Yep.  Yep.  Yep.  

And finally, this is the part that really matters.  "Baseball is like a tragic opera.  A symphony.  You have to let the whole thing unfold if you're going to enjoy the reward.  Sometimes it happens within a game.  Sometimes a series.  Sometimes a lifetime."

And that's it.  That's baseball.  

Its something that no other sport can offer you.  Can you get passionate about hockey?  Sure.  Are their reviews in football?  Yes.  Are there season defining moments in a single play in basketball?  It can happen.  Can any of those sports cause a singular consciousness among a group of people in a stadium?  In a city?  In a country?  Definitely.  You can have the perfect storm when all that happens.  

But only baseball can suspend time.  

Last night time was suspended in a 53 minute 7th innings several times.  Part of that is the fact that baseball is the only team sport without a clock.  People who don't care for baseball; people that have a superficial understanding, people who thinks that batter shouldn't call time, pitchers shouldn't take so long between pitches, there shouldn't be trips to the mound, etc; are not going to understand the blinding speed at which the game happens.  

Consider:  You are John Gibbons.  You're in the clubhouse before your game and watch the Houston Astros with a 6-2 lead and needing only 6 outs to punch their ticket to the ALCS.  The comeback you witnessed by KC is epic.  Houston had a 96.2% chance of winning that game before the 8th inning started.  Your starter (Dickey) is a polarizing figure in your own city.  Half the people think he isn't a "real" pitcher and shouldn't be trusted to start an elimination game.  Jays score 3 in the first. Dickey gives up a single to Choo and a single to Betre but is otherwise unscathed in the 1st.  Jays score their 4th run.  Rangers go 3 up 3 down in the 2nd.  Jays score 3 more for 7.  Choo singles and scores again in the 3rd and Beltre singles again.  4th has no runs for the Jays.  Rangers do nothing in the 4th.  Jays do nothing in the 5th.  Comfortable 7-1 lead with a 93.6% chance of winning going to the 5th.  Jays don't score.  Odor lines out sharply to center.  Chirinos singles infield.  DeShields lines out sharply to center.  Runner on.  Two hard hit balls.  And two all stars who collectively have 4 hits and haven't been fooled by the knuckle ball all day are coming up.  So .... you keep him in?  You pull him?  Oh by the way you found out before 1st pitch that in addition to losing the best lefty reliever in baseball for the remainder of the post season, you've also lost your only other lefty for the day and possibly longer.  Before you make the call, remember that if you don't win this game, which is only half over, there will be no 'next game'.  People will not only ridicule you for leaving Dickey in, you'll be questioned on why he started.  You will be run out of town.  The only option is win for today.  Play for today.  If 1% of your strategy is build upon how to handle game one of the next round you are cheating your fans.  Cheating your team.  

The lightening speed within the slow methodical pace of the game can be staggering.  53 minutes in the 7th.  53 minutes.  

Odor, who I have come to greatly admire, drops the head of the bat on a outside pitch and sends a loopy by very worthy single to left.  

Gimenez sacrifices Odor to 2nd.  Tied and on the road in late innings, Jeff Banister did EXACTLY what the 'book' tells you to do.  Don't get me wrong, I like the book.  But the book is wrong in this case and I've always believed that.  So the book says move the guy over with nobody if your tied on the road or down one at home.   

Deshields is on deck and Choo behind him.  Deshields hits .286 with a runner on second.  Pretty good.  But he hits .377 with a runner on 1st.  Why?  Because the infield can still play a conventional defense with a runner on second.  With a runner on 1st there are holes.  Choo is the same deal, he bats 20 points higher.  Gimenez, had he not sacrificed and hit had dramatic statistical variances.  With a runner on 2nd (which he wouldn't have faced) he has an average of .156.  Runner on 1st which he had, .231.  I don't sac, I take my chances.  

They sac.  

Desheilds, somewhat predictably, grounds out....Odor to 3rd.  

Then the mess.  With two out and a runner on 3rd, Russell Martin's throw back to the mound goes off of Choo and trickles down the third base line.  Odor alertly sprints home.  Before he crosses the plate, umpire Dale Scott goes palms down and declares the play day dead.  

All hell breaks loose.  

The Rule:  5.06(c).  Allows for Odor to score.  This is simple and its correct.  They first thing you need to understand is that this isn't basketball, hockey, soccer or football.  Its not just the clock that differentiates baseball.  Its that every other sport's officials have a whistle.  Not baseball.  The reason?  The ball is basically always live.  Again, different from every sport.  If Martin had a spaz attack and threw the ball back to Sanchez over his head and it hopped into center field, the run would have scored.  The ball is live.  Same deal with inadvertently hitting Choo..  The only obligation according to the rules that Choo had was to have "both feet within the batters box.".  He did.  The replays are conclusive.

Rule 6.01(a)(10) on describing interference:  when "he fails to avoid a fielder who is attempting to field a  batted ball or intentionally interferes with a thrown ball".  Of course there was nothing intentional.  

So .... that brings us to Scott's call of either "dead ball" or "time".  Now Scott has since admitted that he shouldn't have done it and effectively blew it, but the rules seemingly provide for his mistake.  

Rule 5.01 "After the umpire calls "Play", the ball is alive and in play and remains alive and in play until for legal cause, or at the umpire's call of "Time" suspending play, the ball becomes dead.  

Now this part is about grammar and punctuation.  "Until for legal cause" is the key phrase.  Major League Baseball is saying that reason time was called was not for legal cause.  In fairness, we know this to be true.  However, I content that doesn't necessarily wipe out the "dead ball" or allow the run.  Because the next part starts with the word "OR" and not the work "AND".  

I know....conjunctions.  You should have paid attention in school.  In simplest terms the word "AND" presumes the continuation of the thought and "OR" presents an alternative.  So what the rule is saying is this, "the ball is live unless it isn't for a legal reason OR the ump calls "time".  

Simple.  

Its fucking chaos.  

The Jays got screwed like nobody's business.   

And I come back to the this line from the Game 5 blog, "Baseball is like a tragic opera.  A symphony.  You have to let the whole thing unfold if you're going to enjoy the reward.  Sometimes it happens within a game.  Sometimes a series.  Sometimes a lifetime"

You have to fully embrace and absorb the anguish and disappointment to appreciate the outcome.  Baseball is an emotional investment.  

I was invested.  I would have thrown beer cups.  Don't get me wrong....I would have pounded the beer, but I would have thrown the cup.  

The wind blown Pat Sheridan ball came back.  Flanagan's 10 inning shutout came flooding back.  Tom Candiotti starting game one against the Twins and refusing to throw his knuckle ball because "he wasn't feeling it" washed over me.  Jose Canseco going 5 the deck off of Wells and Henderson stealing at will against Borders played through my head.  

Two world series titles be damned.  We were getting fucked over.  It was blatant.  It needed to be called out.  

The worst of it?  Choo is good hitter.  But there was two out and a runner at 3rd.  Texas by virtue of their sac bunt had reduced their own odds of scoring.  But:

With a 2-2 count, Choo is a career .181 hitter.

We were out of it....dammit.  The error is legit.  The aftermath not so much.  

Bottom of 7.  

The dome is silent.  Martin who is unfortunately wearing goat horns has 1-2 count and hits a weak ass ground ball up the middle.  Routine.  Andrus inexplicably clank it.  Martin on 1st nobody out.  

Pillar looks over matched but hanging in.  Four fouls off Hamels, its another 1-2 count when he hits a crisp one to 1st.  Probably a double play, but for sure the lead runner.  Moreland snaps a throw to 2nd and again, Andrus leaves it in the dirt.  I'll watch again, but I don't understand how that is Moreland's error.  Martin on 2nd, Pillar on 1st.  Nobody out.  

Here's the book again, but this time I like it.  Goins is going to bunt the boys to 2nd and 3rd.  Here is why I like this.  Had the bunt been successful, you are putting yourself in a position to score a run without the benefit of a hit.  With runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out, you can for sure score one or two on any type of hit.  But you can also score on a sac bunt, a ground out, a sac fly, wild pitch, balk, there's tons of options than don't rely on a hit.  Goins bunts foul.  Then bunts clean but a little hard at a quickly charging Beltre.

Let's stop this "future hall of famer" talk about Beltre.  He's not.  1.16% of Major Leaguers make the hall of fame.  Beltre is not in the top one percent.  However, he is a very good player.  .285 career average, 413 home runs, 1467 RBIs....he's better than solid.  On top of that he was a stud in the post season.  The guy could barely move with very obvious back pain.  

The bunt from Goins was charged aggressively by Betre and he did the unorthodox thing and turned to get the lead runner at 3rd.  He threw a thigh high strike to 3rd and and got Pompey by a couple of feet.  

Except Andrus dropped the ball again.

  

For the 3rd time ever a player made two errors in an inning in a winner take all game.  It should have been 3.  

Bases loaded.  

Revere up.  Swing and a miss.  Ground ball to 1st.  Moreland catches it and has the presence of mind to not throw to Andrus and throws to the plate to get the sliding Pompey.  Pompey's take out slide which was both clean and perfectly executed prevented the double play at 1st base.  

Donaldson.  As much as the dome is buzzing there are nerves everywhere.  A double play ends the threat.  A strike out or fly outs reduce the odds of a run being scored infinitely.  We couldn't get screwed again.  Could we?  Ball one to Josh.  Ball 2.  Donaldson hits a bullshit little flare to 2nd base.  Sorry, but I make this play.  For the life of me I don't understand Odor's route to the ball.  But bad read, or bad route, or just snake bit by this point, he missed it for what COULD have been the 4th error of the inning.  As it turns out its a fielders choice because Revere couldn't make it to 2nd in time.  That alone shows you how SURE the out was.   3-3.  

We're back.  Like my txt to Geoff Keogh said at the time, "its a game again".  Its bedlam at the dome!     

Goins at 3rd, Donaldson at 1st, Bautista up. So. About Bautista.  He's pretty good.  .257 career hitter which is no screaming hell, but its the power numbers that make him special.   But you know that already.  But did you know that he hits .409 with runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out?

Okay, I didn't know either, but I did know that it was significantly better.  

The rest is history.  

The no-doubt bomb was out in the blink of an eye followed by a bat flip for the ages. 

Its always darkest before the dawn.  And it was damned dark in the top of the 7th.  

The ALCS update coming up soon.