Believe

Baseball is about believing.

Sometimes there's no cause to believe and you have to search.  I believe that there is truth in numbers. Anyone who has seen my compulsive breakdown of Old Timers stats would know that I am relentless in finding the answer.  The truth does live in the numbers.

So obsessive is the search for the answer, that I often lose sight of the question.  And that's where the long, rambling, 'where the fuck is he going' BLOGs come from.  BLOG editions like this one is in danger of becoming. Sort of like Fox Mulder on his relentless search for 'the answer', I too believe that the truth is out there.  But not with aliens.  With numbers.  Unless aliens created numbers, then all bets are off.

I believe that there is a definitive equation that will provide every answer.  Its the String Theory of baseball. It keeps me up at night.  I wish I was kidding.

So where, you ask, are the Blue Jays defensible numbers?  Why should you believe?  What compelling evidence is there that would allow you to put your heart on your sleeve and let this team have your 100% positive support Friday night and Saturday?

Here are some numbers.

Kansas City has 3 wins to Toronto's 2.
They are 2-0 at home; the Jays 0-2 on the road.
They have given up 39 hits; the Jays 50
They've given up 4 home runs; the Jays 5.
They have a team ERA of 4.81; the Jays 6.91
Their bullpen has recorded 3 Holds; the Jays have none.
They've turned 4 double plays; the Jays have 2.
They have 31 RBIs; the Jays have 23.
They're hitting .296; the Jays .239.
The Royals have 6 sacrifice flies; The Jays haven't hit one yet.

There is nothing in these numbers that would you lead you to believe that the Jays have any chance at all.  To be completely honest, there is no hope in these numbers whatsoever.  But I'm not talking about "hope", I'm talking about belief.

They numbers need to be absorbed and churned and calculated and reapplied and swirled and stoked until you get what you're looking for.

To people like me who think that The Number 23 isn't a psycho thriller, but actually makes sense; Bill James is a legend.  Bill James?  Ya.  Bill James.  James is a 66 year old historian, writer, analyst and baseball geek who has been publishing books since he was 28 years old way back in 1977.  He named his approach for looking at baseball statistics "SABERMETRICS".  The 'SABER' part comes from the Society for American Baseball Research which was founded in Cooperstown, New York in 1971. Think of them as the baseball version of the Illuminati.

I used to buy his annual Baseball Abstract back in the day.  It was just data then.  This was way before people knew how to make data look pretty.  If you bothered to dig into it, you would understand why Tony Fernandez was greater than any short stop in the game (yes, including Ozzie Smith).  You would understand why despite leading the league in home runs and outfield assists, you'd be further ahead by having a run of the mill outfielder than you would be with Jessie Barfield.  You would also understand how Dave Stieb should have won a Cy Young in 1985 with only 14 wins.

Bill James was met with a lot of resistance.  It was thought that he was trying to replace scouts, coaches and managers with math.  It wasn't the case of course, but the old guard didn't like it.

Almost 40 years later the pendulum has swung dramatically.  Ryan Goins is proven and respected as
the 9th best player defensively in all of baseball . This is known.  It is accepted.  Its understood that if you put Edwin Encarnacion at 3rd base that you will hurt your team no matter how great his offensive contributions are.  Its not just about counting the errors.  And you have "king" Felix Hernandez in Seattle who won a Cy Young with 13 wins.

These are considered victories for sabermetrics.  This isn't a Money Ball conversation, but money ball relies heavily on sabermetrics.  The ARE NOT the same!  A complete discussion on money ball would be a good conversation one cold day in February.  But the concept around it is putting value (dollars) in things that people don't recognize as prime stats.  

So here is something that is NOT sabermetric related that might mean something.

When facing elimination:
Royals:  2-0
Blue Jays: 4-0

When having a chance to eliminate another team:
Royals:  1-1
Blue Jays:  1-0

Back to sabermetrics.....there's a lot of stats I follow.  One of my favourites is WAR. I've explained that before.  Another one I really like is "GAME SCORE".  This isn't too commonly used outside baseball circles, but you can trust me on this.  This is what GMs look at when they are signing pitchers.  More than wins.  More than ERA. More than innings pitched.  

Game Score is a great stat.  I'll explain it in a second.  Everyone knows the "quality start" stat?  That's where a pitcher worked 6 or more innings and gave up 3 or few runs.  Its sort of an indicator, but .... not so much.  I mean, what does it really tell you?   If you were to project it over a season you would have 210 innings pitched (15th among starters), and a 4.50 ERA (110th overall among starters) and that's it.  It gives you an innings eater with and ERA in the bottom 20% of baseball.  No indication of wins.  No indication of strikeouts, walks, hits, WHIP, or value to your team.

So I think this is where Bill Jame and people of his ilk said, "there's got to be a better way".  Surely there are games where a guy worked 8 innings, got the win, gave up 4 runs and struck out 17 while walking none.  That isn't a quality start?  Then there's games where a guy could pitch 6 innings, give up 6 runs (3 earned), 8 hits, 5 walks, get the loss, but it IS a quality start.  There has to be a better way.

Enter the game score stat.  If you're a football fan, think of Quarter Back Ratings, its similar.  The way this works is that every pitcher starts the game with 50 points. They add or subtract based on the following:

+1 point for each out recorded.
+2 points for each inning completed after the 4th
+1 point for each strikeout
-2 points for each hit allowed
-4 points for each earned run allowed
-2 points for each unearned run allowed
-1 point for each walk allowed

Its not perfect, but it is a much better indicator than anything else going.  Personally, I would modify slightly and have +.5 for each fly ball out and +1.5 for each ground ball out....but that's me.  A mistake by a ground ball pitcher is single.  A mistake to a fly ball pitcher is runs.  But whatever, this is still a great stat.

So if you think about the series so far, who had the best and worst starts?  You had Volquez (1-1) Vs. Estrada (1-1), Ventua (0-0) Vs. Price (0-1); Cueto (0-1) Vs. Stroman (1-0) and Young (0-0) Vs. Dickey (0-1).

Before you answer, lets look at what traditional ERA says.

So obviously, Volquez is #1 with his game one start where he didn't give up a run.  And equally obvious is Estrada's game five start where he gave up just one.  Yep, Young pitched well.  Actually everything looks good, but it feels like Price pitched better than his ERA.  So if we look at our game 6 and game 7 matchups we have Price V. Ventura.  Hmmmmm.  Ventura is more than a run and a half per game better!  Yowza, doesn't look good for game 6 does it.  And despite Stroman's 30+ lead in ERA that looks pretty safe, you've gotta get to game 7 for it to even matter.  

Now lets look at Game Score's ratings of the pitchers.  

A little different.  Estrada, even though he gave up an earned run rated better than Volquez' game #1 one start.  Why?  fewer walks, fewer hits, more strike outs, virtually no base runners and more innings.  

And much as I suspected, Estrada's game one start and Price's game 2 start both equaled 50 points.  So what does that mean?  It means, mathematically, that they neither hurt nor helped their team's chance of winning.  The game was still as equal as before the first pitch.  

So lets look at the game 6 match up.  Price was a 50.  Ventura was a 40.  He already has the better performance.  All things being equal, the Jays just need to get to the KC pen an inning earlier.  I'm not as sold as on the Royals pen as others other.  But that's okay.  What I do firmly believe is that you need to get people in bad positions.  If your 7th inning guy is pitching in the 4th or 5th, that's a bad position.  If your closer is in to start the 7th, that's a bad position.  They need to speed up the cycle of the pen.  

Believe me, the Royals do not want a game 7.  The Jays are favoured in game 6, that's bad enough.  Cueto on the hill for game 7?  Do you think there is anyone in Kansas City' fan base, front office or dugout that wants to see that?  They will lose their minds.  They have to, have to, have to, a million times over, HAVE TO win game 6.  They are undermanned on the hill.  The hook for Ventura will be frightfully quick if he shows the slightest sign of trouble.  KC, even down a bunch will not give up this game even if it means killing their bull pen for game 7.  That's how much the don't trust Cueto.  

Now lets look at team Game Score at a team level.   

Remember all those conventional stats at the beginning of this?  You will read and hear lots today about ERA, don't believe it.  The Jays, despite being down have pitched better.  That will be proven in games 6 and 7.

I've looked at offensive spins (on base is even; average and slugging go to KC), I've looked at umpires (Price is 6-1 win Nelson umping; Ventura is 1-0).  There is nothing that stands out.  Not enough anyway.

But there is one more number and that is the most compelling number of all
.

This number is Vegas.  Some people don't trust Vegas.  Maybe not in terms of picking a team at the beginning of the season, but on a specific game, I'm all over it.  One thing that I'm really confident about Vegas is that they really don't like losing money.

The Jays are favoured as -145.  That means that if you wanted to win 100 dollars you'd have to bet 145 bucks.  By contrast, you would have to bet 10 dollars on the Royals to WIN 145.  Wait until you see game 7, it will be up over -150.  The Jays in game 6 and game 7 on the road.  Everything lines up.

It is rare to see a visiting team favoured.  Its is extremely rare to see a visiting team favoured in the post season.  For example, the Cubs were down 3-0 and were home and were a slight favourite at -115 over the Mets who completely dominated them.

Yes Vegas is the most important number of all.

You can watch the game.  You can be ambivalent to a win or a loss and turn yourself off and stay safe.  You can be negative and not really commit to the game.  Or you can immerse yourself in the game and fully engage with a team that is one win from tying the ALCS.  Two wins from hosting game one of the World Series.  

I believe.