And Now You Know

Well I was wrong on the roster.  Wrong by 2 guys.  For the record, I like my roster better.

There's lots of angst in the city today!  Radio guys are nervous.  TV guys are nervous.  The homeless guy outside Tim Horton's (Dundas & Jarvis) is nervous.  I get it.  When it comes to baseball, I'm as pessimistic as they come.  I've often said that an optimist is NEVER pleasantly surprised.

That changes for the next couple of days.  The Jays will leave Toronto up 2-0.  Put it in the bank.  Bet the house.  Sleep easy.  Want to know why?  Lets start with the easy one, game #2

GAME 2

VS

Hamels Vs. Stroman
I didn't like this match up when it came out and I still don't.  I would have used Dickey in this start.  Mostly because Dickey is better at home.  Not better than Stroman is but better than his own splits home vs. away; but who cares.    I'll leave that aside and just deal with the match up.  The sample size of Stroman isn't big, but there are trends.  I will say that the Jays will win this game and win it easy.   I'm more confident of this than I am of game one to be honest.

I know, it seems weird.  Hamels is better than Gallardo.  Price is better than Stroman.  How can this game be easier?  Its how they pitch.  There's lots of stats to back this up.

Why I'm confident?  Stroman has one start against the Rangers. He's 1-0 with and ERA of 0.00, 5k's, 0BB and 7 innings.  Terribly small sample size, but its what we've got.   Hamels we have a lot more to go on.  4 starts against the Jays, 0-2, 6.97 ERA, only 20 innings pitched, and all the other stats are terrible.  The Jays have lit him up pretty good.  In fact, with those stats they own him.  And its worse at Skydome where he's 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA.

Statistically Stroman gets better as he gets deeper into a game.  Other than the 2nd inning, his next best inning is the 7th where he has a .215 batting average against and a crazy 12.5 - to - 1 strike out to walk ratio.  Hamels 7th inning is 2nd worst inning at .254 BAA and 3.54 - to - 1 strike out to walk.

All said, here's the prediction.  Hamels doesn't get out of the 5th inning and gets lit up for 5 or more runs.  The kid gives up 2 or less through 7.  Cecil and Osuna mop up.

GAME 1

 VS.

Gallardo Vs. Price
First you have to understand who Gallardo is.  If you listen to the media, they make out Gallardo to be a 3rd or 4th starter who happened to have a couple of really good starts against the Jays.  Not true.

This could be and should be one for the ages, although I don't think it will be (I'll get to that).  Price has been around since '07 and has 104 wins.  Gallardo has been around since '08 and has 102 wins.  Gallardo gives up 1/2 a run more a game (3.66 vs 3.09 career).  They both go deep into games, Price 1473 innings pitches to Gallardo's 1441.  Both were up and down to the minors over their first couple of years so the numbers don't line up perfectly, but they're pretty damn close.

Price gets 8.6 strike outs per 9 innings.  Gallardo 8.2.  Price's WHIP (Walks + Hits per innings pitched) is 1.132.  Gallardo is 1.317.   Both have pitched 3 complete game shut outs.  Gallardo has gotten Cy Young votes, been an All-Star and even won a Silver Slugger as the National League's best hitting pitcher.  He shouldn't be under estimated.

Here's another stat to cause you pause.  Gallarado has 48 wins pitching on the road and Price has 45 wins pitching at home.

Everything looks pretty even.  So why am I supremely confident about this game?  Because of a stat you've heard nowhere unless you're reading this.

Whether you play in the Tottenham Oldtimers, Minor League ball or the majors, you know what you have to do win.  If you come up against a better team you KNOW you have to play better than normal to win.  The whole team does.  If you are the better team, the mantra is, "just play our game and we'll be fine".  That's with all factors being equal.

I can tell you that all the factors are NOT equal in this game.

Now this is interesting....

While everyone was trying to figure out rosters, Major League Baseball quietly announced the umpiring assignments for the Post Season.

The game 1 umpire is fella named James Hoye.  Pretty decent ump.  Gallardo, with Hoye umping is 1-1 in four starts with a 4.79 ERA, a strike out to walk ratio of 1.5 to 1, a WHIP of 1.456, strikes out 7 per 9 innings and has worked 22  2/3 innings pitched.  What does that tell us?  Gallardo will likely work 5+ innings but not complete the sixth.  He'll probably probably give up 3 runs by that time.  He'll probably depart the game in trouble with runners on.  Who knows for sure, but that's what the history tells me.  Also, the Jays big batters are infinitely patient and will take more walks than most teams.

So 3 runs over 5 innings, that's not a lot to excited about is it?  It is when you look at Price's splits.

Price has worked with Hoye behind the plate twice.  2-0 with a 1.84 ERA a strike out to walk ratio of 5.87 to 1, a WHIP of .886, strikes out 10.4 per 9 innings pitched and has worked 14 2/3 innings.  So if history repeats, Price works 7 innings, Lowe come in to start the 8th.  He'll have given up a run, struck out 9, walked 2.

Gallardo already knows that he can't pitch his normal game and win.  Because the only people who have James Hoye in their heads besides me and you are the starting pitchers.  If you don't think that the pitchers don't know every ump and their tendencies and how they've fared against them, you are sadly mistaken.  Hoye is in his head this morning.  He knows he'll get squeezed.  He knows that he'll have to catch too much of the plate for called strikes.  He knows he can't work away because that will lead to base runners.  Gallardo's cheerios aren't going down so easy.

On the other hand Price is thinking "just play my game".  Hoye is behind the plate.  For whatever reason, he pitches well to Hoye's version of the strike zone.  Price's pitches fit his eye and there's a track record to prove it.

Umpires matter and how people pitch to them matters almost as much as the opposition.  Hoye called 3,134 pitches strikes this season that were actually out of the strike zone.  12.51 percent of the pitches that he saw in total.  And those aren't random calls.  His zone is slightly morphed.  Conversely, there were 1,040 pitches thrown in the zone that Hoye called balls.  11.01 of the total strikes. Again, not random.  His strike zone is consistent and its HIS strike zone.

Price has adapted to his zone.  It works for him.  Gallardo, not so much,

This game feels about 6 - 2

Bet the house?  Not quite that confident.  Case a beer?  Giddy up.