I'm pretty sure that everyone still has a bit of a rush from the last series.
That was fun.
Remember the feeling? I hope so. Sorry to say this, but you're probably not going to feel it again. You'll be happy, you'll be proud, you'll be excited. But I don't you're going to feel that nail biting do or die, living and dying with every pitch feeling again. This doesn't mean that I totally dismiss Kansas City, just that I think its a terrible match up for them.
You'll see why soon.
And the Royals do have weapons and strengths. Whats most interesting about this to me is that the Royals are built like a National League team. They're opportunistic, they personify small ball and they're fundamentally sound. Good enough to have the best record in the American League, that's not an accident. But its interesting too that both the Mets and the Cubs in National League are build more like traditional American League teams.
A few things you need to know about the Royals. You will hear a lot of talk about their "team speed". Sure they're quick. They finished 2nd in the league in stolen bases with 104. I really don't know how 104 steals can be defined as team speed. Vince Coleman had more than that in each of his first 3 seasons in the majors.
But whatever, 104 led the league. Well the Jays are 4th in the league with 88. I'd say the speed kinda matches. But what doesn't match is this.....The Blue Jays have been caught stealing fewer times than any other team in the league at just 23 times for the season. The Royals? 34 times. So the Royals are successful 75.3% of the time and the Jays 79.2%. However, it isn't just a track meet. The real story is stopping the runners. Toronto allowed fewer steals than any other team in the league. The Royals were 8th in the league.
Don't sweat the running game. Sure, KC will swipe a few bags. They're not station to station. But they're not Ricky Henderson either.
KC is smart when it comes to game planning the Jays. They know, and they're one of the few teams to actually do it, that they need to pitch inside to be effective. And if one of those pitches gets away and they hit a guy? Oh well. One base is better than 4. Its a good approach, but it does have a flaw. Those who have watched Bautista for the last number of years know that he has a unique and uncanny ability to hit home runs when he is thoroughly pissed. We've seen him knocked down and hit the next one out. We've seen him lose his mind and hit home runs. We saw what happened Wednesday night.
Don't piss off the Blue Jays.
Pitching inside is ONLY effective if you can follow it up with strikes away or at least pitches away that can make people chase. Toronto is a tremendously efficient team at not chasing. Consider this. The Jays led the League in home runs. That's not news. Home run teams are normally free swingers that strike out a lot. Toronto struck out the second fewest amount of times of all American League teams (KC had the fewest). That is amazing. But the stat that is absolutely staggering is that they led (1st) the AL in walks while having the fewest intentional walks of any teams. They earned their walks with plate discipline. The Royals? 15th and dead last in free passes.
I do think the Royals will win a game or two in this series. They'll win by playing smart, stealing runs and taking advantage of their opportunities. They will bunt to advance runners. They will hit and run. They may squeeze. There will also be a game or two where the Jays will just have bad luck or not get the key hit or have a bad start. Shit happens, its baseball. But you won't have the OMG stress about this.
KC knows they're over matched and will try to take advantage of every opportunity.
When you roll up the numbers against the Jays for the pitchers, the three Royals starters (Volquez, Ventura and Cueto) they combine for: 11 starts; 3 wins; 4 loses; 60.2 innings pitched; 4.75 ERA and a 1.315 WHIP.
Now do the same thing for the 4 announced Jays Starters of Estrada, Price, Stroman and Dickey and you've got: 17 starts; 8 wins; 4 losses; 110.2 innings pitched; 2.63 ERA and a 1.066 WHIP.
Are you worried? You don't need an MIT degree to know that the Jays starters numbers are dominant.
So forget the career numbers and just look at this season. The Jays won the season series 4-3. No big deal, its only one game difference. But they outscored KC 40 - 32. It doesn't sound bad does it? But its over a run per game.
Its baseball, there's a million stats. You have to decide what is important for you. Lets have a look.
Kansas City Starters
Toronto Starters
Pitching Stats (Season)
Here is a little break down on how the pitching compares. Anything that is dark blue means the Jays have an advantage, anything light blue favours the Royal. Under their names are their actual statistical number while under the RK column you'll see where they ranked in the league. And a brief explanation of the categories:
ERA = The number of runs a pitcher gives up over 9 innings.
Walks = Does not include intentional base on balls or hit batters
K's = strike outs
Avg = Percentage of times batters reach base safely by hit against a team
WHIP = The average number of runners that reach base against a team in an inning by walk or hit.
DP = The number of double plays turned by a team.
SB = The number of stolen bases against the team.
CS = The number of runners that a team threw out while attempting to steal.
OBA = Hits + Walks + Hit by Pitch divided by plate appearances that the team gives up.
OPS = Adds total of batting average + total of slugging percentage against a team.
Pitching Stats (2nd Half)
Toronto led in 7 of the 10 pitching stats for the season, so I thought, to be fair, lets just look at the second half of the season and see if it levels out. It didn't. The Jays led in 9 of 10 categories.
Here is the offensive compare. There are hundreds of stats, to choose from, these are just the 14 I liked. Jays led for the season in 10 of 14.
RUNS = Self explanatory.
HITS = Self explanatory.
2B = Doubles
3B = Triples
HR = Home runs
BB = Walks taken, does not include intentional base on balls or hit batters
K's = strike outs made
SB = Stolen bases achieved.
CS = Times caught stealing
Avg = Percentage of times batters reach base safely
OBA = Hits + Walks + Hit by Pitch divided by plate appearances that a team achieves.
OPS = Adds total of batting average + total of slugging percentage for a team.
TB = Total Bases achieved by adding hits (home run = 4 bases, triple = 3 bases etc)
NP = Total number of pitches that teams saw at the plate.
The 2nd half evened out a little which was a bit of surprise for me. However, it is still very Toronto slanted.
There's a few "jump out at me" things here. I'm not going to spend a lot of time, but worth noting. Maybe.
1. Number of pitches. Jays saw more pitches than other team in the league. They had 53 home wins which is the most in the league. So lets say they had 8 walk off wins. That means that 45 times then didn't bat in the bottom of the 9th. That's the equivalent of 5 full games not played over the season. And STILL they saw more pitches than any other team. This just tells me that they are infinitely patient. Now KC with 51 home wins and would have worked out about the same as the Jays and they're dead last in pitches seen.
2. The Jays have almost 200 more walks than KC and they've given up almost a 100 fewer walks. The net on this difference is 279. Lets try it this way. KC walks achieved - walks allowed is 383-489 = -106. Toronto is 570-397 = +173. The Jays +173 and the Royal -106 gives the Jays a huge advantage of 279. What does that mean? On average it means a 1.72 advantage in base runners per game. Is that a big deal? Well I say yes, but in one game, maybe not so much. But 12.05 runners in total over a 7 game series? I don't think a team can overcome that.
3. OPS. With other stats coming closer together in the second half, I was surprised to see the Jays margin grow to almost 100 points. What we learned? KC's numbers are almost identical of the season as they are for the 2nd half. They are who you think they are. Toronto is becoming even more of a slugging team.
I'm done. Better pitching. Better offense. Similar speed. Reasonably close defense.
There's a chance this series doesn't go back to Kansas City. I think we're looking at 5 or 6.
1 comment:
For KC :(
Post a Comment