Game 5

I didn't want to this, but I got pushed.

My track record has been less than stellar.

If you had told me that there would be a game 5 of this series I wouldn't have been overly surprised.  If you told me how we got there, I would have been shocked.

Here are some things that you should keep in mind, because I know there is a bit of panic out there.  Yes the Jays lost twice at home to start this series.  But even though this all happened in the last week, people have already forgotten how those games played out.  True.

• The Jays out hit Texas 6-5 in losing the 1st game.  
• Price was not amazing.  
• He gave up 5, that's not good. 
• He walked 2, Struck out 5 and gave up 2 homers.
• But he worked 7 innings.  
• The Jays had 3 at bats in the 9th inning with the tying run at the plate.  
• The weren't crushed.  They weren't smoked.  They were in the game until the end.  

Game two tore out people's hearts.  I get it.  By baseball is like a tragic opera.  A symphony.  You have to let the whole thing unfold if you're going to enjoy the reward.  Sometimes it happens within a game.  Sometimes a series.  Sometimes a lifetime (if you live in Cleveland or Boston for example).  

• Again, they didn't get crushed.  
• The Jays had the lead after 7.  
• Hamels worked 7, gave up 6 hits (1 more than Price), 4 runs (1 less than Price) and gave up a home run.  
• Surely I don't have to make an argument about being "in" a game that went 14 innings.  

So far in this series the Jays have scored 20 runs to the Rangers 16.  They've had 35 hits to the Rangers 31.  Yep, close.  But they're out hitting them.  They're outscoring them.  

Why will they win tomorrow?

1.  The Jays had fewer loses against lefties than any other team in the American league.  15 to be exact.  The average team had more than 25 losses.  The Jays don't sweat lefties.  Neither should you.  I don't care that its Cole Hamels.  The Jays are facing their 4th consecutive lefty.  

• Hamels (left losing)
• Perez (lost)
• Holland (lost)
• Hamels (?)  

2.  The Cole Hamels factor.  Its not a factor.  He now has 5 career starts against the Jays and zero wins.  Zero.  The Jays hit him the 1st time.  They'll hit him this time.  They hit him every time.

3.  The Yovani Gallardo factor.  What happens if Hamels gives up 3 in the first or second and they bring in Gallardo the noted Jays killer???  Well, sure.  Its a concern.  They guy is good, no doubt.  Remember that they Rangers lift him before he has to go through a 3rd time so he doesn't break down.  But I think seeing him twice this close together will be a factor.  Plus he's only ever had 3 career relief appearances.  Even Price has more than that.  Its not an easy adjustment coming from the pen.

4.  The Stroman factor.  Career (reg season) vs Texas he's 1-0 with an era of zero.  Now lets look at his playoff start in detail.  

1st

• DeShields double. 
• Choo single to center DeShields scores
• Fielder single to center Choo to 3rd. 
• Fielders choice, Moreland, Choo scores on a throwing error. 
• Andrus ground out 
• Hamilton double play.  

2nd

• Odor walked
• Giminez ground out, Odor to 3rd. 
• Sac fly, Alberto. Odor scores.
• DeShields ground out to 1st. 

3rd. 

• Strike out, ground out, strike out.  (6 straight set down)

4th

• Ground out, ground out, strike out (9 straight set down)

5th

• Ground out, strike out, ground out (12 straight set down)

6th

• Line out, ground out (14 straight), walk, single, strikeout.

7th

• Ground out, ground out, fly out.  

So you need to ask yourself.  Do you believe that the guy who retired 18 of the last 20 he faced is the guy that you're going to see on Wednesday OR do you believe it will be the guy who allowed 5 of the first 7 to reach and was victimized by some bad luck?  The track record says that the first option is closer to what he normally does.  

So I'm really not going to to sweat this game.  The bats are awake.  I have faith in the pitching.  The pen outside of the big three (Osuna, Lowe and Sanchez) shouldn't be a factor at all.  I'm going to listen to the symphony.  

Hey Jays, how about .....