Worst Week EVER!

3 1/2 games with 10 to play.

Confident?

Lets look at 1987.

Tottenham has an inordinate number of Blue Jay's fans and a surprising number of baseball fans.  It also has the rare bird that I call "students of the game".  These are people who don't have to cheer for a team necessarily (although there's nothing wrong with that) who love the ebb and flow of the game, the history, the trends, the majesty, the lack of a clock, the perfect string-theory, random, sense of order that baseball brings.

You don't have to understand it.  Its okay.

These are the people that watch the baseball post season regardless of who's in it.  People who are having a sleepless night and flip on the Padres and Dodgers from the west coast.  People who can't turn off the Little League World Series if its on when their flipping channels.

Now even the students of the game have fallen into the lore of 1987.  It is a history created by the media and no one with a sound voice has every spoken loud enough to dispute.  How could this be true?  Well it happens all the time.  I'm not kidding.  All The Time.

You know how Eve got Adam to eat the apple in the garden of Eden?  Sure.  We all do.  Did you know that no where in the bible does it say it was an apple?  Just a 'fruit'.  There's lots of these.

420 is the juvenile disturbance code, hence the term because synonymous with weed.  420 is actually the code for obstruction to public land.

Humans evolved from apes?  Not really.  Humans and apes share a common ancestor but we're on different curves.

George Washington didn't have wooden teeth.  It might be a better story than the truth which included Gold, Ivory and his own slaves.

Frankenstein was a monster!  No, Frankenstein was the Doctor that created the monster.

Anyway, you see how myths and lore evolve and become "facts" with no basis.

Back to 1987.

This was the best Blue Jays team ever.  1985 they won the division for the 1st time.  Great team.  1989, they won the division for the 2nd time.  Should have made it to the World Series but were under manned against the A's.  In 1991 the won again but ran into a hot Twins team.  1992 and 1993 we all know were great teams that won the World Series.
So why is 1987 the best?

• The best outfield in baseball.  It wasn't a debate.  George Bell, who would be MVP had 47 home runs (when that meant something) and drove in 134 RBI.  Barfield was a year away from his decline with 28 home runs 84 RBI a Gold Glove and 17 outfield assists!  Lloyd Moseby hit 25 points over his career average at .282, set a career high in homers with 26, had 96 RBI and 39 steals.  Ridiculous outfield.  
• Tony Fernandez at short.  To this day, the best short stop I have ever seen. Offensively he hit a cool .322.   "Should be" hall of famer Fred McGriff at 1st.  The transition from Iorg and Mullinks to Gruber at 3rd.  The emergence of Manny Lee as a high level defensive 2nd baseman.  
• The pitching?  Henke led the league in saves.  Jimmy Key led the league in ERA.  Ward could have been the closer on half the teams in the majors.  Steib was Steib.  Clancy was 15-11, Cerutti was 11-4, Eichhorn led the league in appearances (89) with an ERA of 3.17.  

Personally, if you gave me a choice between today's outfield and the '87 outfield, I'd take Moseby, Bell and Barfield every day of the week and twice on Sundays.  More home runs.  More RBIs.  More runs scored.  Barfield had a better arm than Bautista.  Pillar and Revere are better defenders, but overall its no contest.

The infield?  Here's the deal.  Fernandez had the EXACT same fielding percentage as Ozzie Smith and was a far better hitter.  Smith was a first ballot hall of famer.  That's a whole other conversation.  But I'm willing to call Tulo and Tony even.  Donaldson over Gruber.  Goins and Manny Lee are a wash.  Smoke / Collabello vs. McGriff and Fielder?  '87 wins.  But lets say its a wash.

Starting pitching goes to today's team, relief pitching goes to '87.

Finally, overall, the American league east final standings had

Detroit         98-64
Toronto       96-66
Milwaukee  91-71
New York   89-73
Boston        78-84

The top 5 teams in the division have a total winning percentage of .558.  This year, the division's winning percentage (which is still exceptionally good) is .483.  Put it this way.  Unless this year's team runs the table, they can't beat the 87 team in wins.

Unlikely.

So again.  Better team. Better competition.  And they didn't win.

What the hell happened?  Lets deconstruct 1987.

On September 24th, on a 4 game winning streak a half game lead (1/2) over Detroit, the Jays were playing host to the Tigers in a four game series.

You think its euphoric now?  The two best teams in baseball were facing off.  There was no wild card.  It was winner take all.  To top it off?  Jack Morris was going for the Tigers.

Game 1:  Mike Flanagan (6-7) gets the win over Morris (18-10), Henke gets the save.  The Jays won 4-3 with all their runs coming in the third inning on RBI's by Whitt and Mulliniks. Jays up 1 1/2 with 9 to play.
Game 2:  Jimmy Key pitched 8 1/3 innings.  Jeff Mussleman came on in relief for the win to go to 12-4.  Frank Tanana pitched 7 innings but Xavier (Willie) Hernandez took the loss.  The Jays were trailing 2-0 with no one on and 1 out in the 9th.  Barfield singled to CF.  Rick Leach pinch hits and doubles, moving Barfield to 3rd.  Manny Lee triples to right, Barfield and Gruber (running for Leach) score.  Willie Upshaw intentionally walked.  Nelson Lariano intentionally walked.  Moseby hit a routine ground ball to Lou Whitaker at 2nd.  He booted it. Jays win and up 2 1/2 with 8 to play.
Game 3:  Yet another 1 run game with the Jays winning this one 10-9.  Unbelievably, for the second day in a row, the Jays scored three in the 9th inning to win it. Barfield started it again with a double.  He moved to third on a single by Upshaw.  Rick Leach loaded the bases by getting hit by a pitch.  And Juan Beniquez tripled the bases clear to win the game.  Jays win and up 3 1/2 with 7 to play.
Game 4:  The fourth one run game in a row.  This one took 13 innings.  No one really cared that much.  3 of 4 was huge.  It was just a matter of math, the Jays were going to win it.  Jays lose and up 2 1/2 with 6 to play.  

The series was over.  The Jays hit the road to close out their last 6 games and the season.

This year, the Jays close with 7 on the road.

First was Milwaukee.  Bill Wegman against Mike Flanagan.  The Jays would lose 6-4.  Seriously, no big deal.  The tigers lost 3-0 to Baltimore.  It was still 2 1/2 with only 5 to play.

The Brewers Chris Bosio beat Key 5-3 in the next game while the Tigers laid a 10-1 beating on the O's.  1 1/2 with 4 to play.

Steib got beat by Juan Nieves 5-2.  It was a bit of a flat game all around.  But the Tigers lost anyway so it was still 1 1/2 with 4 to play.  

The off day.

The Jays fly to Detroit, Get a good nights sleep and a full off day while the Tigers, who have lost 5 of their last 7 and 7 of their last 11, play one final game against the.  Well damned if Walt Terrel doesn't beat Mike Boddicker 9-5.  Home Runs by Kurt Gibson and Matt Nokes sealed the deal. 1 game lead with 3 to play.

The Final 3.

Game 1:  With Jim Clancy pitching, the Jays scored 3 in the 2nd inning on a three run homer by Manny Lee.  That would be it for the Jays and the Tigers would win by scoring a run on a double play ball.  4-3 Tigers.  Tied with 2 to play.
Game 2:  On a beautiful fall Saturday afternoon, the Jays scored a run in the 1st inning on a Mulliniks sac fly.  The Tigers answered in the 3rd.  Nelson Lariano scored Manny Lee with a single in the 5th.  No one would have believed that would be the Jays last run of the season.  The Tigers would score again the bottom of the inning and the game stayed tied until the bottom of the 13 When an RBI single to right ended the game. Jack Morris when 9 innings in this game.  Mike Flanagan for the Jays pitched ELEVEN (11) innings!  Tigers up 1 game with 1 to play
Game 3:  The Tigers scored a run in the 2nd inning off of Jimmy Key who pitched a complete game.  Frank Tanana pitched a complete game shut out.  Tigers win.

How did this happen?   A better team than this year's team had a 3.5 game lead with 7 to play and lost.  How?

 Consider these similarities.

• George Bell was hitting .315 with 47 home runs, 134 RBI and 111 Runs scored heading into the last 7 games.  He would go 2/22 (.111) with no home runs, RBI or runs scored.  
• Josh Donaldson who is no longer the MVP favourite (Trout) is 5/30 (.167) with 7 runs scored.  The good news is the runs which means he's walking still and getting on, but you can't drive in many runs with a walk.   

• Ernie Whitt was an average catcher who was having his best offensive year in 1987.  To top it off, he was born and raised in Detroit and always seemed to have his biggest hits in Tiger Stadium.  Well the 1st loss against the Brewers cost more than the game.  Trying to break up a double play, Whitt went ribs first into Dale Sveum's knee.  The knee one.  Whitt wouldn't play again in 1987 which didn't hurt defensively, but sure hurt at the plate.  
• Troy Tulowitzki's error (not Pillar's) of not giving way to the outfielder coming in and resulting in a broken shoulder blade has had a huge impact.  I'm not going to get into the "Goins is every bit as good" debate because he's not.  But he is perfectly serviceable as a short stop.  So lets just let that go.  With Tulo in the line up the Jays scored 5.88 runs per game.  Without him 4.81.  More than a full run per game!  Nearly 20% of their offense.  

• Jimmy Key led the league in ERA.  He would pitch 21 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts to and ERA of 2.25 and go 0/3.  
• Estrada, Price, Dickey, Stroman, doesn't matter how well you throw if the team isn't scoring.  

• The games in '87 against the Tigers were not the problem.  Sure.  Winning the last one in Toronto + one in Detroit would have sealed the deal, but that wasn't really the issue.  What was the issue was the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Jays were a meek 4-9 against the Brewers.  Had they even been 6-7 that would have got it done.    
• This years Jays squad has 6 games left against the Rays who already own a 6-8 record against Toronto.  This pains me.  Tampa is the new Milwaukee and has been since they came into the league.  The Jays just can't find a way to consistently beat these guys.  

• So this isn't a similarity, but something that freaks me out.  The '87 Jays were a team that found ways to win the close games.  In fact they were 27-24 in one run games (.529).  
• This years version of the Jays borderline sucks in one run games.  13-27 (.325) sounds more like what you'd expect Philadelphia than Toronto.  Be concerned about that one.  

The Big lie

The 1987 team will forever be known as "chokers".  Its hard to drop your last seven and avoid that take.  Even if it is a lie.  

The '87 Jays play .679 in September that season going 19-9. It was their best month of the year in wins & winning percentage,  Even if you include the 3 losses in October in the September stats, it was STILL their best month of the year.  

This year Jays squad?  They're not "UN-HOT" at 13-8 (.619), but not anywhere near the '87 team.  Also nowhere near their .667 June or their torrid .778 August.  They've lost Tulo.  The train is slowing down a little as they climb the hill.  Their best 2nd baseman is at Short.  Donaldson has gone ice cold.  Their scoring is down over a run a game.  

The Yankees are playing shit.  They are are only 11-10 in September (.524) with no off days left. That's the saving grace.  

However they're playing Baltimore who they're 9-7 against, Chicago who they're 2-1 against and Boston who they've beat up 10 games to 5.  

If trends stay how trends tend to stay (you know, because they're trends and all that), the Yankees will take 3/4 from the White Sox, 3/4 from the Bosox and 2/3 from Baltimore.  

That would make them 91-71.  

The Jays are 87-65 currently.  3 games at home against Tampa.  4 games in Baltimore.  3 games in Tampa.  They need 5 wins. Barring a losing streak its over.  

Its the losing streak that worries me.