THIS IS WIDE OPEN!!!
There are lots of reasons why this is wide open. The biggest reason might be that Peter Hollmann and Steve Ross aren't on the same team this season. When they are on the same team they are a combined 14-0 and have two championships.
With them split up, everyone has a chance now.
Then there is the issue of the schedule. The schedule seems to have a few people upset. The truth is 168 people had all season to address, suggest, propose or otherwise complain about the schedule. Now is a little late. The schedule is NOT punitive to the top teams. What it is, and is by design, is fair and balanced. When we have 15 teams, the schedule is weighted to the better teams. They have an easier schedule. That's why teams try to get to the top 6; for an easier ride. When we have 14 teams and use this schedule, there is no advantage for anyone.
Now, just because the schedule is balanced, doesn't mean that there's no trends that we can use to figure out who has an advantage.
Below is are standings based on each team's 4 playoff opponents and the 2 games they played against them in the regular season. So everyone has an 8 game history. This is how it looks.
Keep in mind that this is from me manually cross referencing every single score. There is no automation in this so there is a chance of errors. However, I'm reasonably confident that its accurate.
The first thing that jumps out is that the Dog Catchers are the only team that have a clean slate against their competition. Say what you want but they are the only team that I would declare an overwhelming favourite to get the bye to Sunday. Don't get me wrong. They have warts. Every team does, but they are the only ones that bring a perfect history to the table.
So lets look at each team.
Everyone is so excited!!!
So here's some stuff that you really should know.
Draft Kings:
Power Ranking: #1
Offense: #4
Defense: #1
Runs scored by subs: 0
Power Threats: Chuck Cragg
Average Leader: Derryl Gaudet (.779)
Runs Leader: Chuck Cragg (52)
Hits Leader: Steve Black (82)
Record Against Playoff Opponents: 5-2-1
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Ingo Bartens. Has a knack for getting the hit that you can least afford to give up and is absolutely fearless stopping the ball.
Why they won't make Sunday: Missing Chuck for the first two playoff games and Stike is playing with an upper body injury.
Why they will make Sunday: Chuck is only missing two games. Injured or not, Stike is among the 2 or 3 best "in-game" captains. His value far exceeds his play.
Dog Catchers
Power Ranking: #2
Offense: #1
Defense: #3
Runs scored by subs: 19
Power Threats: Kevin Clouthier, Kevin Boston, Kevin Moon, Mike Iacoucci
Average Leader: Kevin Clouthier (.755)
Runs Leader: Kevin Clouthier (51)
Hits Leader: Kevin Moon, David Potocki (74)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Jon Hardy. Never quits on either side of the ball. And frankly, I've seen far too many sliding and diving catches out of this fella.
Why they won't make Sunday: Not sure that Randy's lower body injury is completely resolved. Questions around Larry's health as well.
Why they will make Sunday: Their record against their opponents and the steady, consistent operation that the Dog Catchers run. Clouthier, Moon and Boston have become a modern Murderer's Row.
Master Batters
Power Ranking: #3
Offense: #10
Defense: #2
Runs scored by subs: 2
Power Threats: Chris Parson, Geoff Keogh
Average Leader: Jon Douma (.769)
Runs Leader: Chris Parsons (48)
Hits Leader: Adrian Barry, Chris Parsons (75)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Bob Blewett. Bob can (and has) gone 4/4 this season, but if he goes 1/4 the one he gets will break your back. He's almost guaranteed 2 foul outs to him when he catches. More than competent at 1st base. Nice pick.
Why they won't make Sunday: Availability of Geoff Keogh; Dave Fleming upper body injury.
Why they will make Sunday: 1st overall, allow less than 10 runs per game, consistent contributions from 10, 11 and 12 players. Nice balance.
Power Ranking: #4
Offense: #3
Defense: #7
Runs scored by subs: 14
Power Threats: Keith Beechey, Steve Lahey
Average Leader: Keith Beechey (.777)
Runs Leader: Jerry Muirhead (58)
Hits Leader: Keith Beechey (80)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Dwyane Comer. Follow the glove Dwayne! Will make at least one catch per game that maybe only Pendlebury should make. Has enough bat to make defenses mental.
Why they won't make Sunday: Maybe its me, but this team seems to have a lot of outfielders. They can patchwork an infield, but doesn't look really strong.
Why they will make Sunday: Gayle and Muirhead at the top of the order and Lahey and Beechey pounding them in. If everyone else plays to their average, this won't be a problem.
Power Ranking: #5
Offense: #2
Defense: #12
Runs scored by subs: 30
Power Threats: Jeff Sagert, Mark Doyle, Mark Kolsen, Roger (Kahuna) Burton
Average Leader: Brian Richards (.784)
Runs Leader: Brian Richards (58)
Hits Leader: Brian Richards (91)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: John Stiff. Ya I said that. And I can back it up. He's hitting a cool .606, 112 points better than last year. And he's 6th on the squad in runs with 25. Don't sleep on his bat. Those that have are sorry.
Why they won't make Sunday: Best record in the second half, (11-2) and their defense hasn't risen above 12th. Not enough leather to get to Sunday.
Why they will make Sunday: Best record in the second half. 5 Sliders have improved their average by 100 points over the previous year, so you could argue that they have 5 guys playing at least a full rating better than they were drafted.
Hurtin' Units
Power Ranking: #6
Offense: #7
Defense: #6
Runs scored by subs: 19
Power Threats: Scott Peters, Dave McGovern, Darrell Hagar, Todd Hicks
Average Leader: Mike Olliffe (.726)
Runs Leader: Todd Hicks (51)
Hits Leader: Darrell Hagar (73)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Dave Miller. Quiet guy, might be a little overlooked on a pretty talented squad. That would be a big mistake. His defense is dramatically improved. If your looking for a soft spot in the outfield keep looking.
Why they won't make Sunday: They don't have a good enough match up to run the table in the round robin. They will lose a game. The key is if that loss is early, are they able to rebound. They won their last two, but they lost the 3 before that. Round robin has no room for losing streaks.
Why they will make Sunday: Great balance on offense and defense and maybe more importantly, balance on the number of players in the infield and outfield. Taylor's improved pitching will be a factor.
Power Ranking: #7
Offense: #8
Defense: #5
Runs scored by subs: 14
Power Threats: Brad Young, Steve Brooks, Rob Rumboldt
Average Leader: Scott Barton (.904)
Runs Leader: Brad Young (49)
Hits Leader: Scott Barton, Brad Young (75)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Gary Basso. Absolutely rock steady glove. Responsible outfielder who never misses the cutoff. And to boot, hits line drive, after line drive after god forsaken line drive.
Why they won't make Sunday: Scott Barton upper body injury; Don Booth out for the playoffs; 2 - 6 against their playoff competition. Plus....come on. No back to back champs since the Wild. It ain't happening this year.
Why they will make Sunday: Sandy has had a magical year; rookie Marshall has contributed huge, Armstrong is traditionally one of the best 5 hitters in the league in September.
Beer Bros.
Power Ranking: #8
Offense: #8
Defense: #9
Runs scored by subs: 8
Power Threats: Neil Pendlebury
Average Leader: Neil Pendlebury (.738)
Runs Leader: Neil Pendlebury (49)
Hits Leader: Neil Pendlebury (76)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Al Bales. Never fails to save his best ball for September. He will hit above his season average and he goes all "game-face" defensively. If you're used to the fun-lovin' Al, he'll be back on September 21st.
Why they won't make Sunday: Hmmmm.....lots of Neil eh? Paul Piellusch, lower body injury. Short stop remains an issue.
Why they will make Sunday: Despite Piellusch out of the outfield, Goncalves, Ross and Pendlebury and an exceptional top 3 out there.
Grisslies
Power Ranking: #9
Offense: #6
Defense: #10
Runs scored by subs: 5
Power Threats: Darren Ford, Rod Duggan, Tom Hollmann, Will Goodin
Average Leader: Darren Ford (.759)
Runs Leader: Doug Dwyer (54)
Hits Leader: Doug Dwyer (83)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: There's some really good choices here, but I'm going to go with Glen Tinkler. His defense has bolstered the confidence of every infield arm. And almost as important, he leads the team if no the league in two out RBI hits. If we actually kept that stat he'd be getting a trophy.
Why they won't make Sunday: Beer
Why they will make Sunday: Won 3 of last 4 games. No big deal. One of those wins was against the Draft Kings who were in 1st place on Sept 1st. Another was against the Master Batters who were in 1st place when we played on Sept 8th. Can lose to anyone. Can beat anyone.
Dusty Cleats
Power Ranking: #10
Offense: #13
Defense: #4
Runs scored by subs: 16
Power Threats: Dan Chiasson, Paul Koolhaas
Average Leader: Rob McCarron (.709)
Runs Leader: Doris Casullo (38)
Hits Leader: Rob McCarron (73)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Gord Robertson. Everyone else that I'm picking is done on a compare to Gord, this is the easy one. In the final game (7-5) against the Cleats in 2011, Gord was 3 for 4 with two runs scored. More than a quarter of our offense came from our #10. or 11? I can' remember and it doesn't matter. But the Cleats will either win a game or be in a game in the 7th inning of the round robin because of Gord's glove and bat.
Why they won't make Sunday: Only have McCarron and Casullo for one of their 4 round robin games. Only one win in 8 games against their playoff competition.
Why they will make Sunday: Finished the season 6-2. The two losses were to the Tap Masters who were behind them in the standings. The wins were all against teams ahead of them in the standings.
Power Ranking: #11
Offense: #9
Defense: #10
Runs scored by subs: 47
Power Threats: Keith Dell
Average Leader: Shaun Wolfe (.786)
Runs Leader: Ryan Feehely (56)
Hits Leader: Ryan Feehely (82)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Steve Ross. He'll be the first to tell you he's had a lousy year. I'll be the 1st to tell you that he's one of the top 5 most consistent playoff performers year after year since I've been in the league. The Tap Masters you saw in the regular season are gonna look a little different. Be ready.
Why they won't make Sunday: I'm going to go with the subs on this on. 13% of their runs scored have been scored by subs. People tend to show up for playoff games and its a different line up when its just your own guys. Look for their runs go from 13.5 per game do around 11. They'll need superior defense to win scoring at that rate. Paul Doyle, lower body injury; Jason Bowers, upper body injury.
Why they will make Sunday: They closed the season on a 3 out of 4 run and looked good doing it. And we haven't really seen Paul Doyle play at his customary level yet.
Power Ranking: #12
Offense: #14
Defense: #5
Runs scored by subs: 0
Power Threats: Robin Dickson
Average Leader: Robin Dickson (.699)
Runs Leader: Kevin Cavalier, Robin Dickson (32)
Hits Leader: Robin Dickson (58)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Tough call on a team that has a lot of "rise to the occasion" guys so I'm going to go with Not So Fast, Eddie Hopkins. And maybe this is personal because I've been on the wrong side of too many 4/4 nights from him. The man can still stick. On top of that he's absolutely unflappable.
Why they won't make Sunday: They are one of two teams that didn't have a run scored by a sub this season. They were 14th in offense. What you see is what you get.
Why they will make Sunday: This team has two former winners of the most improved player award in Hope and Osmond and both continue to get better; the 5th best defense in the league shouldn't be overlooked. The Woody's despite finishing 13th in a 14 team league, have one of the more favourable playoff schedules with a 5-3 record against their competition.
Power Ranking: #13
Offense: #12
Defense: #13
Runs scored by subs: 21
Power Threats: Cameron Clark, Micah Williams
Average Leader: Cameron Clark (.861)
Runs Leader: Cameron Clark (52)
Hits Leader: Cameron Clark (87)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Martin Ranby. Anytime someone mentions Martin's name, its almost immediately followed by "good guy". True. Did anyone notice that he hit over .600 and makes way too many shoe string catches that rob hits and save runs? He can steal a game.
Why they won't make Sunday: The offense and defense are both near the bottom. If one was close there may be a glimmer of hope.
Why they will make Sunday: How is this for a glimmer? Tied for the second fewest wins in the league, yet have a tidy 4-3-1 record against their playoff competition with a zero +/-! Very nice. They're accustomed to playing these teams close, that bodes well.
Power Ranking: #14
Offense: #11
Defense: #14
Runs scored by subs: 2
Power Threats: Mike Candy, Peter Hollmann
Average Leader: Mike Candy (.747)
Runs Leader: Jens Lepa (37)
Hits Leader: Peter Hollmann (72)
Don't be surprised if you lose because of this guy: Calvin Steeves. Want him to play 2nd? He'll dive, stop balls, make throws, direct traffic, order pizza. Whatever you need. Want him in the outfield? He'll catch grounders, make catches, dive for balls, hit the cut off man, save orphans from a burning building. Whatever you need. The average is down but the runs scored are third on the team which just tells me that when he gets on; he's a superior base runner that makes the most of his chances.
Why they won't make Sunday: Defense and offense. I think everyone except DeLand and Bob Candy are outfielders. Its tough to play with two on the infield.
Why they will make Sunday: Didn't think I'd come up with anything? Please. The Devils were 7-18-1 this season with a -192. Wow. In 2010, the last time we had this format, the Dusty Cleats were 3-23 with a -186. The Devils scored 329 runs to the Cleats 207. Despite that terrible season and anemic offense, the cleats went 2-2 in the round robin and finished in 7th overall. ANYTHING is possible.
Summary
There's your run down of each individual team. Now....I'm not picking game by game, but I will make some overall picks.
First off, #1 (Master Batters) opens against #3 (Dog Catchers) while #2 (Draft Kings) start with #4 (Sliders). Normally, it would be a good bet, or at least reasonable, to take teams 1-4 to get the coveted automatic berths to Sunday's quarter final. However, right off the hop, 2 of those will immediately be in the position of not being able to make another mistake. Remember, someone has to lose and a tie probably screws both teams. If its a bad loss (like -7) then I can almost guarantee that the losing team won't run the table and go 3-1. So, whoever wins those first games among the top 4 teams, I predict will end up with the bye to Sunday.
Maybe not the bravest prediction, but logical.
I don't expect the losers to eliminated; however I do anticipate that they'll play an elimination game on Saturday night. And they'll probably win it. They didn't make the top 4 by mistake.
So who gets the other two free passes? Its impossible to say right now of course, but when we look back on it here's my guess. The two top four teams that lose will likely lose a second game and the teams that they lose to will get the bye. The rationale here is that anyone else who gets the bye will need an upset along the way. Except for the top teams you need to beat someone you're not supposed to beat to get the bye. So someone needs to be ripe for that. Then of course you need to win the games your SUPPOSED to win as well.
We'll see.
Remember, the last time we had this format, not a single team went undefeated. We had 5 teams at 3-1. The Brew Jays, Rusty Rebels, Lucky Stiffs, Torn Ligaments and Banshees all tied in points. The Banshees were relegated to an elimination game (which they won) as they had the lowest +/- at +4.
Remember too, that we didn't have a winless team. We had four 1-3 teams, The Dodge City Rounders, Dog Catchers, Grisslies and Dislocated Joints. The Grisslies and Joints were both injury riddled after two round robin games and were the two teams eliminated on +/-. Probably just as well that year for both. The Dog Catchers went to an elimination game on their 1 win and lost to the Banshees. The Dodge City Rounders, 12th in the regular season with 7 wins and 1 win in the round robin, won their elimination game against the Red Dogs. Then won their quarter final game against the first place Brew Jays. Then won their semi final game against the Torn Ligaments; before finally bowing out to the Wild in the final.
One round robin win took them to the finals.
Anything can happen.
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