Entering Week 18

Well, this SHOULD be the final week of the season, but late season rain outs have forced our hand to spill over into the off-week after labour day.  Not a big deal other than stats and playoff alignments will be a little bit delayed.

Lets take a quick look at last weeks picks.  I entered last week with a 17-13 record and +$40.00 in the bank.

Master Batters vs. Gruesome Devils:  The League average is 14.02 runs allowed per game.  The MB's are at 9.32; the GD's are at 19.55.  Barring a miracle....

The miracle didn't happen and the Master Batters won fairly easily and reduced their runs against. 

Hot Tub Woody's vs. Rusty Rebels:  They aren't as far apart as you might think.  But the Reb's have outscored the HTW's by 30 and have played 2 fewer games. Defense won't decide this.

And defense had little to do with this as the Rebs smashed their way to a victory.  

  

Sliders vs. Draft Kings  There is no one hotter than the Sliders.  There's no one more consistent than the Draft Kings.  Controlling the ball after its hit is the deal breaker here.

Consistency won over hot as the DK's powered to a huge win completing my Monday sweep. 

  

Son's of Pitches vs. Draft Kings   SOP is close.  But I stand by the earlier comment about the DK's consistency.  They can be beat, but you need to play your best.

As promised, a Draft King win.  

  

Hurtin' Units vs. Dusty Cleats  I view the last couple of weeks as a blip for the Units, they'll bounce back fine.  Not yet though, the Cleats are finally on the roll I've been expecting.

You think these picks are easy?  Yep, I nailed the underdog cleats to win and win they did.    

Grisslies vs. Dog Catchers  Not playing for 2 weeks is going to hurt the Grisslies.  

Guess what?  Not playing for 2 weeks hurt the Grisslies.  Look out next week though.  

Tap Masters vs. Sliders  Win or lose against the Draft Kings, I like the Sliders to get right back at it against the Tap Masters. 

BAM:  The sliders got their bounce back.  Who's perfect this week so far?  This guy.  

Beer Bros. vs. Gruesome Devils.  The Beer Bros offense has disappeared. The BB's are a -62 in the second half.  The next worse two are the Tap Masters and Gruesome at -41.  Its break out night.

There's getting it right and then there's calling your shot.  The Beer Bros. scored 24 runs over their last 3 games.  On the night I declared "break out night" they got 29.  Nice. 

Dodge City Rounders vs. Rusty Rebels.  In the 2nd half these teams are almost identical.  3-4-2 (DCR); 3-4-1 (RR).  Should be close, but Dodge has more power threats on a cool Keogh night.

You'd think I wrote these AFTER the games.  Dodge wins by 1 on a cold Keogh night.  Close enough?  

Son's of Pitches vs. Hot Tub Woody's. If SOP loses to the Draft Kings then this game is a lock.  July 9th was the last time they suffered back to back losses.

Busted....I didn't see this coming. Fairly close, but the Woody's pulled out an 11-6 win.    

Dusty Cleats vs. Tap Masters.  Both teams have played 8 games in the 2nd half.  The Cleats have given up 90 runs, the Tap Masters 135.  

And again.  The Tap Masters overcame injuries and in large part due to 6/6 for nights from Feehely and Ross, scored 22-10 win. 

Master Batters vs. Dog Catchers. 7-2 in the 2nd half (MB) vs 8-2 (DC).   The Draft Kings are getting better every game and have a runs against in the 2nd half of 8.8.  Impressive.  The Master Batters are at 7.0 runs against in the 2nd half.  Good luck.

Back in the high life again.  In what was a pretty thrilling game to watch The Master Batters got an 11-10 victory.  

Week Record:  10-2

Total Record:  27-15

Money:  +$120.00

And this weeks games:

Gruesome Devils vs. Dodge City Rounders:   Bigger, better, faster, stronger.  To quote Kanye.

Dog Catchers vs. Sons Of Pitches:  Health of the Dog Catchers captains remains a question mark.  If this was Vegas, this game would be taken off the board.  SOP are capable, but DC in a close one.  

Draft Kings vs. Grisslies:  Why?  We play close games against the Draft Kings.  A 2 run loss and 4 run loss in our last two games against them.  If we hit on all cylinders, it can happen.  

Dodge City Rounders vs. Hurtin' Units:  Rounding into playoff shape.  The offense is there.  The pitching has been very good.  The defense needs to be a little crisper to be a deep threat in the post season.  

Master Batters vs. Hot Tub Woody's:  Shocked.  I know.  

Rusty Rebels vs. Sliders:  The Sliders and Rebels should be a good match up.  Neither team has an elite defense but both can be good.  The Sliders will out hit the Rebs in this one.  

Tap Masters vs. Dusty Cleats:  The Cleats bounce back from last week's blip.    

Hurtin' Units vs. Sliders:  An interesting match up here.  Similar offenses, but the Units bring more leather to the game.  

Beer Bros. vs. Rusty Rebels:  Its not that the Beer Bros. aren't trying.  But they seem to be running in mud.  Working really hard but not really moving.  Following up last weeks offensive explosion will be difficult.   

Sons of Pitches vs. Grisslies:  Yes, the Grisslies WILL run the table after their take down of the Draft Kings.  

Gruesome Devils vs. Tap Masters:  Expansion cousins that have had tremendous success since joining the league.  This year there is a real possibility of finishing in last and 2nd last.  

Grisslies vs. Dusty Cleats:   Rob and Pully know each other pretty well.  These teams rarely see a blow out against each other.  Looking for a close Grisslie victory.  

ORDER OF FINISH. 

With 16 games remaining until the end of the season, nothing has been decided.  There are a few "likely to happen" but its really a crap shoot. 

This chart shows each teams maximum possible points.  

For each of these listed below it shows the range of possible finishing positions.  Except for the top few and bottom few, it would take a perfect storm to actually reach the highest and lowest position, more likely is somewhere in the middle. 

• The Draft Kings could finish as high as 1st place and as low as 2nd place (hold the tie breaker against the Dog Catchers)
• The Master Batters can finish as high as 1st place and and as low as 3rd place.
• The Dog Catchers can finish as high as 2nd place and as low as 3rd place.  
• The Beer Bros. can finish as high as 4th place and as low as 9th place.
• The Sliders can finish as high as 4th place and as low as 9th place. 
• The Dodge City Rounders can finish as high as 4th place and as low as 10th place. 
• The Rusty Rebels can finish as high as 4th place and as low as 10th place. 
• The Hurtin' Units can finish as high as 4th place and as low as 10th place. 
• The Grisslies can finish as high as 4th place and as 14th place
• The Sons Of Pitches can finish as high as 6th place and as low as 14th place. 
• Hot Tub Woody's can finish as high as 9th place and as low as 14th place.
• Dusty Cleats can finish as high as 9th place and as low 14th place.
• Tap Masters can finish as high as 9th place and as low 14th place. 
• Gruesome Devils can finish as high as 9th place and as low as 14th place. 

STATS

For most of these stats, i've tried to capture the top 25.  Its a little longer than normal. 

1st half

Congrats to the 1st half winners, the Master Batters. 

At the half way point of the season, "for those about to rock", Bill Sallustio was the league's most improved batter.

Our at bat leader (yawn....) through 13 games was Adrian Barry followed by Gord Tanner.  No wonder no one can tell them apart.

No surprise to Mr. Barton leading the way, but it was a terrific start for a bunch of guys, 10 of which were .800 and the middle of the season.

At the half way point there were 8 people on pace to register more hits than anyone in the previous 4 seasons.

Anicete and Darrell were on pace to take down the vaunted #61.  but that pace is tough to maintain.

2nd half

Her are your standings in the second half.  Only the Master Batters and sliders can catch the draft kings.  

So second half most improved.  This is last years end of season batting average against what you've done in the 2nd have of this year.  What I find interesting is that there are 5 sliders hitting over 100 points better than last year.  Might have a lot to do with their jump up the standings and a 9-1 second half record.

At bats in the 2nd half is of course just a whole number.  Its not at all surprising to see the Draft Kings (25 games), Dog Catchers (25), Beer Bros., (25) and Woody's (25) on the list.  Its'll be interesting to see who is still on the list next week when all the 23 games played teams get their at bats in.

A lights out 2nd half by Cam Clark!  10 over .800, but only one over .900

2nd half hits isn't a surprise to me at all. If you see a lot of ball (like me) you know that "hot" isn't always reflected in average. Cam Clark? Hot.  Average and total hits.  Dave Potocki?  Doesn't show up in the 2nd half average conversation, but total hits?  You bet he does. And not cheap hits either, he seems to be in the middle of every Dog Catcher rally.

Well, I'll admit that hit tiny little aspirations of maybe, just maybe, winning this one.  It aint gonna happen.  I have more games left than anyone.  But its too big a gap.  Now my friend Mr Feehely has 3 games left and legs 15 years younger than mine, he might be able to run these guys down.

Season

Continues to be one of my favourite stats. This could actually change a heck of a lot in the next 10 days. Congrats to everyone on this list thought, huge turn arounds!

There haven't be power rankings at all this season.  There is some history to this stat and whether by fluke or not, it seems to work.

There has been much talk about who's in 1st place by points or by baseball standings.  Depending on your preference its either the Draft Kings or the Master Batters.  I think you all know how I feel about that by now.

However, according to this stat, it doesn't much matter.  The top 3 teams a CLEARLY the top 3 teams 4 points between 1 and 2.  4 points between 2 and 3.  And then it spreads out.

You up to the moment standings.

I think this is year 8 of me trying to take our small number of stats that we keep and manipulate them into something to share.  I did it before I was the league statistician, of course when I had that and still now, when I can, now that Lou Conforti is the official stats gatherer.

And in all my years of doing this, I'm fairly certain that this is the first time that I've seen Cliff Tuckers name at the very top of any list!  Way to go Cliff!!!

It'll be interesting to see how this end because of the disparity in games played.  My prediction for the top 5 in this category at the end of the season is Feehely, Richards, Dwyer, Barry and Schrank.  We'll find out soon.

Sadly, this race is over.  Cam made it interesting with a lights out 2nd half, but Scott's lead was too big to overcome.  It would be nice to see Dude climb back over the .800 mark

Again, games played makes a huge difference here.  So does being hot.  My prediction for the top 5 in 10 days is Richards, Clark, Barton, Dude and Behan.

Well....Ani leads a this point and Jerry will have to score one more than his average to catch Lahey's 59 from last year.  Doucet's legendary 61 looks safe for another year.

My predicted top 5 in this category is Muirhead, Richards, Feehely, Clark, Goncalves.  But we have a shot at 12 guys having over 50 runs scored.

That's it for this week gang.  12 of our 16 remaining games are going to be played between Monday and Thursday and will probably decide very little for end of season positioning.  

Yet another year where everything is up in the air with a hand full of games remaining.