Fearless Predictions I

Well, this was pointed out to me on Monday.  Today marks the 300th post to this crazy baseball BLOG. You'd think I'd be tired of talking by now!

Nah.

Its finally that time.  The moment you've been waiting for!  The predictions.

Before we start, this years first edition of the prediction blog is brought to you by The Glove Warehouse.  It seems that one of our league members bought a pile of Nike ball gloves around Christmas from a warehouse sale.  The three remaining were sold by the power of the BLOG!  Good work folks


Secondly, our schedule is out and can be found here:  http://www.tottenhamoldtimers.ca/pages/schedule.html on our league website.  Thanks for the hard work in putting this together and putting up with all of the annoying "is it ready yet" questions.  Please note that this schedule is tentative.  The League Website http://www.tottenhamoldtimers.ca is the only official record for league news, so keep an eye there for when the schedule becomes official.  

And now......the season will be upon us before you know it.  Our crack research staff has taken apart previous years worth of stats, looked at positional trends and have come up with their top six teams for the 2014 season.  As our crack research staff wants to distance itself from Rob Ford, who actually DOES crack, we've decided not to just rely on our analysis and play the season anyway, just in case.

Why the top 6?  No good reason.  Well, actually, there is some value in being in the top 6.  Come the playoffs, The top 6 teams are guaranteed to have more home games than away; which only means that they're marginally better.  At least over the first 24 games they were anyway.  Its not a huge advantage; but in this league, where everything is so even any advantage will do.

Now, before we dig in to this, I need to thank the stats pack.  I know a lot of people think that this is all done by me but that is simply not true.  For the past few years this Group of Geeks has met pre-season to give their informed opinions of league and the combination of players.  Their track record is pretty accurate. Their predictions evolved to write-up which further evolved to them allowing me to put their predictions in print.  These guys put in a lot time and effort for your reading enjoyment.   Thanks to Mark Doyle, Scott Peters, Kevin Boston and Geoff Keogh.

While these guys did a great job and were the reason this BLOG series gets completed on time, there is one other person to thank....and that's Mayor Rob Ford.  He has kindly offered to give his opinion on our leagues teams this year which is a real feather in our cap.  Thanks Mr. Ford.  

for those of you unfamiliar with this format, we'll be looking at 5 team a week alphabetically. In the third edition we'll reveal our top 6 picks.  This week, we are looking at the Beer Bros., Blues Brothers, Brew Jays, Dodge City Rounders and Dog Catchers. You will see in 2 weeks where our stats team picked everyone & you can weigh in with your opinion by voting in the poll on the right side of your page.

Beer Brothers

Kevin Boston:  A well balanced team with some pop, character and versatility.  Rookie Captain Al Bales will do well with his veteran Co-Captain Paul Piellusch with the depth on the mound and up the middle.  Doucet, Joseph, Piellusch and Young make a solid middle of the order and bookend them with Nyers and Fleming...wow!  Their secret weapons could be Barlow and Smith.

Will finish in the top 6 if: opposing teams underestimate Barlow and Smith.  We know there will be some talent in the middle of their lineup.

Doug Dwyer:   Al Bales replaces Steve Ross as co-captain of the Beer Bros.  While they are completely different people / players, they do both instill calm and stability.  This is a great pick up for the Beer Bros.and not to be underestimated.  Beyond the captains, this team is very nicely balanced.  Great attitudes, good age, speed and positional balance.    

Will finish in the top 6 if:   No pressure, but this team has strength up the middle with Doucet, Young, Nyers and Piellusch.  If they land on a 2nd baseman this could be a really big year.
Scott Peters: 
Will finish in the top 6 if: they find the right batting order - all the hitters are there to make for a balanced attack. 

Geoff Keogh:
Will finish in the top 6 if: Their D is as good as their offence

Mark Doyle: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  Their bats are as good on the field as they are on paper 

Rob Ford:  "I'm so hungry, I'm eating my own hand.  Why did it have to the Beer Bros.? Why couldn't it have been the Beer Muffin Bros.  I'm so friggin hungry."

Blues Brothers

Kevin Boston:  Speed in the core along with a lot of ball sense makes the Blues Brothers a team to watch out for.  Defense will hold them in the games with Neil Pendlebury and Radar anchoring the outfield.  Pearce, Tessier and the veteran Pendlebury just know what to do and when to do it.  McCullough’s all-around talent will help this team but guys like Ball and Ingo will surprise many.

Will finish in the top 6 if:  this team capitalizes on their ball sense and strength up the middle.  They won’t hit for a lot of power but could single a team to death.

Doug Dwyer:  The have Doug DeLand????  Game over.  What I like most about this team is they're loaded with experience.  Smith and DeLand have won championships in recent years and most of this lineup has had deep playoff runs.  They (arguably) have the best defensive pitcher in the league and they guys like Dennis Pendlebury and Ingo Bartens, Mike Douglas and Tom Ball that will never shy away from a ball in flight.  Radar and Neil in center is going to be a graveyard for opposing hitters.  Tessier will play his usual lock down first base. 

Will finish in the top 6 if:   This team looks to have a defensive gap at 2nd base. It could well be that they have that guy but he's been stuck playing other positions in previous years because of numbers.  I think this position will probably be the difference maker.
Scott Peters:   
Will finish in the top 6 if: they play tight defence in the infield and take advantage their speed in the outfield - they have the flexibility to move guys around too!
Geoff Keogh: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  The Infield performs average or above. Their speed in the outfield and on the bases may be enough.

Mark Doyle: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  Their outfield is as good on the field as it is on paper
 

Rob Ford:   "Zzzzzzzz...Zzzzzzzz...Zzzzzzzz"

Brew Jays

Kevin Boston:  The key with this team is to keep healthy.  Somehow, Duggan and Bo always craft a team that is among the elite in the League.  However, the long season and nagging injuries to some key players may hurt them down the road.  If healthy, look out.  Smith will be back at his natural position of shortstop and Doyle moves to the outfield.  Al Hayward is a shifty player who is reliable and comes up big when you need it.

Will finish in the top 6 if:  they stay healthy and maintain the traditional Brew Jays winning attitude of past years.  Loads of talent here but need to be figure out who will be in the field.

Doug Dwyer:  Like Radar, I'm kind of giving Bo and Roddy a pass on this one.  They've had clubs that I didn't think had much of a chance of seeing the top 6, yet they always seem to pull it off.  This squad has some of my favourite players in the league.  Hayward and Sallustio are both great team mates and both tend to deliver at the top end of their draft pool.  Doyle give you flexibility in being able to play high level outfield and short.  Mr. Vaughan will not only pitch well, but he'll keep the guys loose with his sharp wit.  Brad Wadden should get a few more innings on mound this year and Basso and Tinkler will thoroughly enjoy playing on this team.  The rookies are a question mark because you never really know. 

Will finish in the top 6 if:   Considering that the Brew Jays made the top 6 with 3 rookies last year, I don't think they'll have many issues with only two.
Scott Peters:   
Will finish in the top 6 if: they stay calm and stick to their game plan - shouldn't be hard with the leadership of Rod and Bo and the wily veteran supporting cast.
Geoff Keogh: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  Old injuries heal in the off season

Mark Doyle: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  They can find a spot for all 4 of their shortstops to play and still be effective 

Rob Ford:   "this team has a guy named Vaughan?  Vaughan?  The city above Toronto, the city of Vaughan?  Last place."

Dodge City Rounders

Kevin Boston:  Mason and Beechey are the 1 and 1a on this team.  We know Rumboldt will be rock steady along with Anicete roaming the outfield.  The hot corners will be fun to watch on this team with Caldwell and Sheehan.  Teams need to be aware that Lukassen is one of the most underrated players in the League so keep an eye out for him.  The key here is to stitch this power together and make it stick.

Will finish in the top 6 if:  the team rallies around their Captains’ power.  They need to gel quick out of the gate.

Doug Dwyer:  I diverge from some of my esteemed colleagues on this one.  There is a lot to like about this team.  You have one of the elite shortstops in our game.  You have Anicete who combines good speed, with a good glove, a good bat and love of the game making him a fabulous team mate.  Gord Robertson will be the reason they win a playoff game in September that they had no right being in.  Rumboldt and Caldwell make for a tall and sarcastic right side of the diamond.  Dell will continue to be a power threat and Henry will continue to hit the ball through 3rd basemen who are foolish enough to think they can cheat in.   

Will finish in the top 6 if:   Robertson, Lukassen, Dell, Sheehan, and Caldwell had virtually all of their innings at 1st or 3rd last year.  This has to be spread out and will.  How folks adapt to new roles will determine their top 6 viability. 
Scott Peters: 
Will finish in the top 6 if: they split up the X-Men powers of their captains both on defence and offence - lots of talent around them.
Geoff Keogh: 
Will finish in the top 6 if: They find a home for everyone on the defensive side of the field

Mark Doyle: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  They pound the ball like they can. There are 5 players in that lineup that can put it out

Rob Ford:   "I had so many hot dogs at the leafs game....I think my eyes are going to pop out of my head!  Does anyone have any pepto?"

Dog Catchers

Kevin Boston:  Hjelholt returns to the Dog Catchers where he starred last year.  He was among a crew that tore the cover off the ball and Hipken gets better with age.  Lahey will be the main source of power and the Candy boys find the holes all the time.  Be careful with this team and don’t take them for granted or you could find yourself down a few runs.

Will finish in the top 6 if:  they find consistency and be willing to find ways to win.  Not a lot of speed but could need to muscle some runs across the plate.

Doug Dwyer:  There will be a lot of talk about this being a veteran club.  Beyond simple numbers which may or may not be a factor; there is a lot like here.  The first think I look for is strength up the middle and the second thing I look for is people playing familiar positions.  This squad has both.  Downtown Billy Brown catching, Randy pitching, Lahey at short beside Mabee at 2nd and Mike Candy patrolling center field with Emeil Edwards is a pretty damned good up the middle combo.  Rick Hjelholt and Bob Candy are two reliable sticks that immune to pressure.  They play down their value, but I think both are great.  Laurier Plante had a great rookie year with the Brew Jays last year, I see his progress continuing. 

Will finish in the top 6 if:   There may be a bit of log jam at 1st base, but it looks manageable.  This should be a most enjoyable year for Larry and Randy.
Scott Peters:   
Will finish in the top 6 if: they can get runners in scoring position for Lahey - Hipkin, Candy, Hjelholt and Downtown Billy Brown will be sure to inspire a few extra victories.
Geoff Keogh: 
Will finish in the top 6 if: Experience counts for wins!

Mark Doyle: 
Will finish in the top 6 if:  They maintain a balanced attack. They have a great mix of average, speed and power

Rob Ford:   "Downtown" Billy Brown?  Candy-man?  Now this is my kinda team!!!

Well there's round 1.  Next Wednesday is round 2.  An update on the pool, if you're interested in joining, the cost is $20.00, half goes to charity.  So far $350.00 is ear marked for local charities!  We rock. For info and joining instructions, follow this link.  http://www.tottenhamoldtimers.blogspot.ca/2014/04/draft-dust.html