Congratulations to all teams on their final placement in the standings. It literally took every single regular season game to determine our standings.
Here are the final standings.
The pool groupings.
The schedule.
Not real easy to read, but the official version can be found on the league website at www.tottenhamoldtimers.ca
The Primer.
Now you know the placements, but.....
Who's going to win?
If any year was ever a crap shoot, its this year. Everyone in the top 6 has a weakness. There is no team that is completely bullet proof. 7 through 12 all have particular strengths that they can run with and 13, 14 and 15 CAN NOT be written off. Not this year.
So who's going to win? No one knows for sure, obviously, that's why we play the games instead of just writing about them. But we can answer some questions. What will the team look like that does win? Recent history tells us to look for a few things. Here's the skinny using the last 7 years as a benchmark:
- The team that finished 1st made it to the finals in 4 out of the 7 years; the 2nd place team 2 times; 3rd place 1 time; 4th place never; 5th place 2 times; 6th place 1 time; 7th place 1 time; 8th place never; 9th place 2 times; 10th place never; 11th place never; 12th place 1 time and 13th through 15th have never seen a finals.
- 1st and 2nd place have met in the finals twice in the last 7 years. The Wild and Dislocated Joints in 2009 and the Dusty Cleats and Grisslies in 2011.
- The average finishing position of the eventual champ in the regular season is 4th place.
- The lowest ranked winner were the Lucky Stiffs who finished 9th in 2008.
- First place teams making it to the final have a 2 and 2 record in that game.
- Of the last seven playoff champions, 3 of them have had the best defense in the league during the regular season.
- The average defensive rating for the playoff champ is 3rd overall in the regular season.
- Of the last seven playoff champions, 2 of them have had the best offense in the league during the regular season.
- The average offensive rating for the playoff champ is 4th overall in the regular season.
Lets take a quick look at the pools and then we'll look at each team.
I always try to look for a lower end team that got a particularly good draw for them based on their regular season record against those opponents or a top team that got an unlucky draw. This year the big winner is the Sliders!
The Sliders finished the season at 9-13 after coming out the box well at 4-0. Going 5 and 13 the rest of the way isn't what they had in mind, but did they every get a great draw! They won 9 games and more than half of them were against the 4 other teams in their pool. Not only that, they have the best record within their pool of all their round robin opponents. This doesn't mean they'll win, of course, but its got to be a leg up to play against teams that you know you've handled throughout the season.
The flip side of this are the regular season champs, the Tap Masters. Of the 7 losses the incurred this year, 3 game at the hands of teams in their pool. Does this mean they'll lose? Not at all, but it does mean that they didn't get an easy draw and they've got their work cut out for them.
Interestingly, every #3 seed has the third best record in their pool. The #4's and #5's are where you'd expect with the exception of the Sliders. The #1's and #2's are where you'd expect with the exception of the Tap Masters.
The Hurtin' Units and Brew Jays are the only teams that didn't collect a point against their opposition. Those are unfortunate draws in the 5 spot. The Dog Catchers and Grisslies are the only teams not to have lost in their pools, although the Grisslies do have a tie.
TEAMS:
Not much of this could be done in advance because I needed to wait for final standings etc to be finished. So this was thrown together by doing another in a long line of 'all-nighters'. Please forgive the occasional mathematical error.
Here is what I've listed:
Team Name (should be fairly obvious)
1st Half Record: what the team's record was and standing through the 1st eleven games of the season
2nd Half Record: What the team's record was and standing over the last eleven games of the season.
Final Power Ranking: Where the team finished in the power rankings which compares points, runs for, runs against and plus / minus for all 15 teams.
Pool & Position: Either Pool A, B or C and the team's placement within the Pool 1st - 5th seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: Number of wins and loses just against the teams in the same pool and how good that record is against the others in the pool.
The reason they see Sunday: Just my personal opinion on why that team is likely to make it past the round robin portion of the tournament.
The speed bump to avoid: Again, my personal opinion on possible pitfalls for all clubs that would prevent them from making it through the round robin.
It would be a good story: Just my little spin on what would be a funny or interesting story.
Here we go....
Beer Bros.
1st Half Record: 6-5 (T-6th)
2nd Half Record: 4-7 (T-10th)
Final Power Ranking: 10th
Pool & Position: Pool C, 4th seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 2-4, 4th
The reason they see Sunday: First and foremost, everyone knows their spot and everyone seems to be in a position that's comfortable for them. The combination of Piellusch and Nyers in CF is as daunting anyones CF pair. Dependable and agile pitching combined with a solid infield defense makes this team formidable. They could make it.
The speed bump to avoid: 13th in runs scored. While the Beer Bros. are among the leaders in "quick strike offense"; meaning they score runs with a minimal amount of hits, their team average and runs scored are well into the bottom third of the league. They'll need to hit a little better and keep the same ratio of runs per hit.
It would be a good story: If Dave Fleming drove in the winning run in the finals batting one handed, standing on one leg, right handed because he beat himself to a pulp throughout the playoffs.
Blues Brothers
1st Half Record: 7-4 (T-4th)
2nd Half Record: 4-7 (T-10th)
Final Power Ranking: 9th
Pool & Position: Pool C, 3rd Seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 3-3, 3rd.
The reason they see Sunday: What's not to like? 2nd best offense in the league in terms of batting average, plus one of the league's best four teams in terms of being able to score quickly with a minimal amount of hits.
The speed bump to avoid: The offense is top half, the defense is bottom half. That's usually a bad combination. However, the defense will be solidified if Tessier is back full time at first base from his injury. Not only is he among the elite 1st sackers, but it distributes everyone else into more comfy positions. No John or limited John spells trouble.
It would be a good story: To see the Pendlebury's back in the finals and finish the job.
Brew Jays
1st Half Record: 3-7-1 (13th)
2nd Half Record: 4-6-1 (9th)
Final Power Ranking: 13th
Pool & Position: Pool C, 5th Seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 0-6, 5th.
The reason they see Sunday: Big game players. Doyle, Niederhuber, Duggan, and Smith all have the ability to be a difference maker on any given day. Defensively they played in the top third of the league for the 1st half of the season before slipping back in the 2nd half. A return to high quality defense and a timely hitting will get them there.
The speed bump to avoid: Pitching. Not that Wadden isn't completely capable, but losing your number 1 pitcher at the end of the year (if the rumours are true) is a huge hit for any club. Whether Brad is as good or even better than Bob was isn't the issue; taking a capable glove out of the defensive rotation is the bigger factor.
It would be a good story: After going 65-30-3 over their first 4 season, it would be nice to see Bo & Rod go out on top in their final year (if it really is their final year, otherwise I take it back)
Dodge City Rounders
1st Half Record: 7-4 (T-4th)
2nd Half Record: 7-3-1 (3rd)
Final Power Ranking: 3rd
Pool & Position: Pool C, 1st Seed
Record in Pool & Rank: 5-1-1, 2nd.
The reason they see Sunday: Fourth in the 1st half, 3rd in the 2nd half, they're a model of consistency. They have power threats up and down the lineup and contributions from 1 thru 12. New comer Kevin Bryan has been causing headaches for opposition batters all season. If Rob Rumboldt comes back it be a huge injection for the team. And there is the Gord Robertson factor. Mr. September will be the reason for a victory somewhere along the line in a game that Dodge would have otherwise have lost.
The speed bump to avoid: Confidence. With a 5 run lead against the Grisslies in the bottom of the 7th on August 19th all the Rounders needed to do was give up four runs or less and they'd lay claim to first place overall. They gave up 5. Then lost to the Draft Kings. Then lost to the Tap Masters and gave up 1st place. If they remain the team that finished 0-2-1 and not the team that went 14-5 in their first 19 games, they'll be in trouble.
It would be a good story: If Rob Rumboldt came back and was a significant part of a championship run.
Dog Catchers
1st Half Record: 7-3-1 (3rd)
2nd Half Record: 7-3-1 (T-3rd)
Final Power Ranking: T-1st
Pool & Position: Pool 2, 1st seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 6-0, 1st
The reason they see Sunday: Everyone knows about their offense. Its almost legend now. However, the reason that they make Sunday is because they have the 3rd best defense in the league. This is overlooked by many but they're a great defensive club that starts with quality pitching, a quick and smart outfield and an exceptionally responsible infield. They don't take stupid risks and give extra bases away. To beat them, you have to out play them, they won't "out mistake" you.
The speed bump to avoid: Coventry Park. While the Dog Catchers were a dominant 10-2-2 at Keogh Park, they were a very human 4 and 4 at Coventry. Winning 3 (or possibly 4) consecutive elimination games at Coventry is completely possible, but will be a challenge.
It would be a good story: If they won! Right after the draft the "too old to win" talk started. They answered it, tied for 1st in points, 2nd overall in the league, best offense perhaps ever, 3rd ranked defense. Great story, I'd love to write that one!
Draft Kings
1st Half Record: 5-6 (T-10)
2nd Half Record: 9-2 (T-1)
Final Power Ranking: 4th
Pool & Position: Pool B, 2nd Seed
Record in Pool & Rank: 4-2, 2nd.
The reason they see Sunday: A) They are hot. B) They have the best defense in the league. C) Draft Kings have a 6-1 career playoff record.
The speed bump to avoid: Is there enough offense to get by? Last year when the Draft Kings won the league and playoffs they had the best defense and the 6th best offense. They were just 8 runs away from being 3rd best. This year they have the 11th best offense and have scored 10 or fewer runs in 7 games. Barely reaching double digits in a third of your games is too much stress for a defense. Even a defense as good as theirs. Finally, alarm bells go off with the Kings 3-6 record against the top 6 teams in the league.
It would be a good story: Back - to - back championships haven't been done since the Wild and they're in a position to make happen.
Dusty Cleats
1st Half Record: 3-8 (14th)
2nd Half Record: 3-8 (15th)
Final Power Ranking: 14th
Pool & Position: B, 5th Seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 2-5, 4th.
The reason they see Sunday: Because no one has seen the Cleats yet. Winston Gayle, Steve Lamb, Brian Richards, Matt Foerster and Jim Rouleau have been in the lineup together once this season. June 9th. With everyone seemingly healthy, with a fleet outfield and responsible defense, this team will contend. See you on Sunday.
The speed bump to avoid: Shortstop. Can you go through an entire post season without one of the league's established veteran shortstops? It remains to be seen. The options at short need to play well, and avoid mistakes. Keeping the ship steady should be good enough given the outfield strength.
It would be a good story: If I was actually right about how good this team "can" be!
Grisslies
1st Half Record: 5-6 (T-10)
2nd Half Record: 8-1-2 (T-1)
Final Power Ranking: 5th
Pool & Position: Pool C, 2nd seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 4-0-1, 1st.
The reason they see Sunday: A) They're hot. B) 5 one run victories + 2 ties shows no panic in close games. C) A 5-2-2 record against the top 6 teams in the league shows an ability to play to the competition level. A 4-1-1 record at Coventry is a big positive factor.
The speed bump to avoid: A 6-4 record among the bottom 6 teams in the league is a bit of an alarm bell. Much like the Draft Kings, the Grisslies put a lot of pressure on their defense with having only the 9th best offense in the league. Like the Draft Kings, its proven to be timely offense so far. But will it hold up?
It would be a good story: If the Grisslies could win their 2nd championship while carrying two rookies. Last time was Stephane Simard and Dave Doucette.
Gruesome Devils
1st Half Record: 4-7 (12th)
2nd Half Record: 5-6 (8th)
Final Power Ranking: 11th
Pool & Position: Pool B, 4th Seed
Record in Pool & Rank: 1-5, 5th.
The reason they see Sunday: They can score! More than half the players on this team score over a run a game led by Cavalier and Porter who both broke the 40 run mark.
The speed bump to avoid: The league's 13th best defense is an issue. With no significant injuries or changes, what they look like now is what they are. They will win by outscoring against you. Not by out defending. It would be nice to have more than one option.
It would be a good story: If Steve DeLand could convert his "Good DeLand" status into championship pitcher status.
Hot Tub Woody's
1st Half Record: 8-3 (T-1)
2nd Half Record: 3-8 (T-13th)
Final Power Ranking: 6th
Pool & Position: Pool B, 3rd Seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 3-4, 3rd.
The reason they see Sunday: Being the best team in the 1st half can't be a mistake. 8-3 included wins over the Grisslies, Rusty Rebels, Draft Kings, all top 6 teams. They have an offense that can seemingly score at will and a team that should be good and stay consistent. Despite the 2nd half slide they remain 5th in offense and 7th in defense. Both are good enough to do damage and get on a roll.
The speed bump to avoid: The second half slide has seen losses against Dodge, Tap Masters, Grisslies and Draft Kings, leaving them 3-5 against the top 6. They might not have been as good as their 1st record would lead you to believe, but they're not nearly as bad as the 3-8 second half record either.
It would be a good story: If they could shake off the malaise that followed them through the 2nd half and return to 1st half form. Always the team I cheer 2nd hardest for, Go Woody's!
Hurtin' Units
1st Half Record: 0-11 (15th)
2nd Half Record: 3-7-1 (12th)
Final Power Ranking: 15th
Pool & Position: A, 5th Seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 0-6, 5th.
The reason they see Sunday: They have wins against the Cleats, Blues Brothers and Beer Bros. and for good measure a tie against the Brew Jays. Ranking 14th or 15th in every category, its hard to find a silver lining. However, there have been steady improvements in the outfield. Come playoffs with Curran, Clouthier Jr., McGovern and Avery available every day, there is possibility for an upset or two in the round robin.
The speed bump to avoid: Well....pick something. 14th ranked offense? 15th ranked defense? 15th ranked in plus minus. I'm not sure if giving up 433 runs is a record or not but I'm pretty sure that -178 on the plus minus stats is. (Grisslies were -169 last year, I know of what I speak)
It would be a good story: Its been a while since the 15th place team saw Sunday. Maybe its time. 2-2 in the round robin and winning a close elimination game on Saturday afternoon and causing someone a big headache on Sunday morning. I like that story too.
Rusty Rebels
1st Half Record: 6-5 (T-6)
2nd Half Record: 7-4 (T-4)
Final Power Ranking: 9th
Pool & Position: A, 2nd Seed.
Record in Pool & Rank: 5-2, 2nd.
The reason they see Sunday: Initially I thought that the Rebels had a big bounce back second half, but the truth is they were pretty consistent throughout. Coventry Park. With a 5-2 record at Coventry, this team is built for the fast track and big field to defend. They are elimination game ready. Their 6th place overall finish gives them no playoff games at Keogh and they are probably one of only two teams that would be happy with that result. They're also 10-4 since picking up super rookie Victor Dermott (3-5 without him) off of the waiting list. The book isn't fully put together on him yet and he is hurting defences in a big way while playing quality defense.
The speed bump to avoid: When they lose they lose LARGE! They have given up 20 runs or more to the opposition 6 times. Only the Units have done this more (14 times). The Rebels could lose a game ugly in the round robin. That's not necessarily a big deal. Being able to turn around and win the next one is a huge deal.
It would be a good story: Speaking of its been a while, the Rusty Rebels haven't played a Sunday game since 2010. They're due for a good run.
Sliders
1st Half Record: 6-5 (T-6th)
2nd Half Record: 3-8 (T-13th)
Final Power Ranking: 11th
Pool & Position: Pool A, 4th
Record in Pool & Rank: 5-1, 1st
The reason they see Sunday: Well the biggest reason they'll get to Sunday is their pool where they have a great track record. Next up is I can't see a team with McCarron, Cudnick and Moon on it NOT making it to Sunday. The Sliders own the leagues fourth best offense, they can and do hit with everyone.
The speed bump to avoid: Pitching and defense. They go together. This team's offense is so good that it can easily withstand a 7 run inning. However it can't withstand multiple 7's in the same game.
It would be a good story: If the defensive changes that they've put in place catch on during the round robin and they become the team many thought the were and go on a sustained run!
Sons Of Pitches
1st Half Record: 6-5 (T-6)
2nd Half Record: 6-5 (7th)
Final Power Ranking: 7th
Pool & Position: Pool A, 3rd
Record in Pool & Rank: 3-3, 3rd.
The reason they see Sunday: The year 2 beer cup champs finished strong winning their last four games and going +41 while doing it. Casullo, Kahuna and Gaudet are a combined 36/36 over just their last two games! Hot is hot and their new batting order seems to be paying off big time. One of the knocks against this teams was that it may have too many 3rd basemen to find everyone a home. Now with Koolhaas out the rotation on defense might be easier.
The speed bump to avoid: Easier rotation be damned! Missing Koolhaas is big disadvantage that is bound to catch up. Individual games can certainly be won, but a long sustained playoff run? We'll see.
It would be a good story: If they pull off the 1st double ever of winning the Beer Cup and Championship in the same season. From then on people will say, "no one has done that since the 2014 Sons Of Pitches".
Tap Masters
1st Half Record: 8-3 (T-1)
2nd Half Record: 7-4 (T-4)
Final Power Ranking: T-1st
Pool & Position: A, 1st Seed
Record in Pool & Rank: 2-3, 4th.
The reason they see Sunday: A) League Champs. B) 2nd best offense n the league. C) 2nd best defense in the league. D) 2nd best plus minus in the league. While nothing is close to certain, this team just has too much going for it not to make it to Sunday. This is about as well balanced of a club that you could hope to have.
The speed bump to avoid: With one exception. They couldn't have possibly gotten a worse draw. 2-3 isn't an awful record against the pool, but the Sliders (5-1) and Rebels (5-2) have a lot to be confident about. They could easily find themselves in an elimination game on Saturday afternoon and when you get there, you never know.
It would be a good story: If the Tap Masters joined the 1990 Tottenham Tigers (Captained by Ed Hopkins) as the only team to lose the championship game one year and win it all the next. You can look it up.
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