BOLD PREDICTIONS (I) - 2012

INTRO

Just a little background for everyone.  The month between the draft and starting playing is PAINFULLY long!  At least for me.  So last year I bridged the gap with pre-season predictions.  The learning from that exercise was that its a painful month for everyone as those predictions were read OFTEN and generated lots of comments.  Hopefully we have a repeat this year.

These are largely tongue-in-cheek but we try and introduce some stats that may or not have value; and then we ask our readership to make a prediction of the best team in each pool of 5.  Simple logic will tell you that this flawed on a few levels.  1.  Its based on the votes that people in the league submit.  These are the same people that put Harper in power, so what does that tell you. (if you're a staunch conservative, my condolences, but get over it; its just a joke)   2.  Any stats that you might be using to cast your vote are supplied by me.  Enough said.  3.  I'm reasonably certain that alphabetical order has no factor in the order of finish.  Therefore, the top 3 teams could be in any one of these pool and only one would win.  4. I just felt a fourth reason would add credibility.  

The first pool we will be looking at are the Banshees, Beer Bros. Brew Jays, Dislocated Joints and Dodge City Rounders. 

This works way better if there is commentary and general kibitzing back and forth.  However, this BLOG is public and (our) kids can get at it and some actually do....so I will ask you to avoid any words that start with "F" and end in "CK".  The only exception I can think of at this point is "firetruck". 

Hosted by Al Bundy

BLOG:  Welcome Mr. Bundy, Its a pleasure to have you in studio!
Al Bundy:  Of course it is, Go Polk High!

BLOG:  Well let's get right to it!  First Question, what is you initial reaction to the Banshees draft?
Al Bundy: When I was a kid, there were lots of parties I wasn't invited to. I showed up anyway. I stood there with a big smile on my face and said, "I'm here" and headed right for the food. Sure, they didn't want me there, but I had a great time. And if they didn't, so what? The point is if you want to be there, be there. Even if they hate you. Sadly, I wasn't drafted by the Banshees so I don't care.  But I might eat one of Frank's sandwiches.

BLOG:  Starting off a little bitter, aren't you Al?  Lets move on the the Beer Bros. who have Starsky and Hutch (Piellusch and Ross) in their second year as captains.  Year one was a good learning experience, how do you think year two will go?
Al Bundy.  Being co-captains is like a marriage.  All right, number one - if it wasn't for beer, there would be at least three people, who probably wouldn't have gotten married - Me, Dwyer, and probably Lisa Marie Presley. Number two - since men buy beer, advertisers have to cater to what we want. And hold on to your corncob pipe - but Starsky and Hutch got a team they will like. Pretty women sell beer and the Beer Bros. got a pretty team, especially Lou. Pretty women make us buy beer, and pretty teams make us *drink beer*.  They are the BEER Bros.  They'll be fine. 

BLOG:  Sure wish you had a stronger opinion about things; or maybe made sense!  Okay, team 3, the Brew Jays.  Bo & Rod have finished in the top 6 in the regular season for the last two years but haven't had a deep playoff run yet.  Is this their break through year?
Al Bundy:  I was a Brew Jay a couple of years ago.  You think that makes me a loser?
BLOG:  That's not what I was saying, I'm trying to find a positive story for everyone.
Al Bundy:  Just because I used to be a Brew Jay and have a stinking job that I hate, a family that doesn’t respect me, a whole city that curses the day I was born? Well, that may mean ‘loser’ to you....
BLOG:  Seriously, that's not at all what meant....
Al Bundy:  Well let me tell you something: Every morning when I wake up, I know it’s not going to get any better until I go back to sleep again. So I get up, have my watered down Tang and still-frozen Pop Tart, get in my car with no upholstery, no gas and six more payments to fight traffic just for the privilege of putting cheap shoes on the cloven hooves of people like you. I’ll never play baseball like I thought I would, I’ll never know the touch of a beautiful woman, and I’ll never again know the joy of driving without a bag on my head. But I’m not a loser. ‘Cause despite it all, me and every other guy who’ll never be what he wanted to be are still out there, being what we don’t wanna be, forty hours a week—for life.  And to me that says WINNER / GAGNON!

BLOG:  This has gone sideways, really fast.  This is feeling more like therapy than prognostication. We have two more to do...do you think you'll make it?
Al Bundy:  Bring it on while I'm still upright. 

BLOG:  Okay then, the Dislocated Joints, what do you think of their draft?
Al Bundy:  Well the the Gods are on a roll, aren't they? Must've been playing another round of "Can you top this?" One god started off with a round of, "Let's wreck Terry's arm." Then another said, "We'll give him Down Town Billy Brown as a co-captain" Then another one, probably a cruel, hungover god, said, "But let's have them have them get 2 short stops in the so that the fall from grace will be that much greater."

BLOG:  Yowza....I don't know what Down Town ever did to you; let's get this over with, what about the Dodge City Rounders?  They seem to save their best baseball for after Labor Day. 
Al Bundy:  Labor Day... what does it mean to us? To answer that question, we must harken back to earlier times. You see, kids, while the cave woman sat around getting fat, smoking cigarettes, and watching the Phil Jabberman show, the caveman braved the elements, risking life and limb, with only the hair on his back.....god bless the Dodge City Rounders, they get it. 

BLOG:  Mr. Bundy, you are truly bizarre. 
Al Bundy:  Thank you sir. 

Notwithstanding Mr. Bundy's flawed characterization of these teams, we have had some really interesting drafts with these five.

You should know that the stats we keep in our league are very minimal.  We track the number of times on base and that doesn't matter if it came on a hit, walk, error or fielders choice.  By default we also have the number of at bats, games played and runs scored.  

Before we get too far into MY FLAWED ANALYSIS, lets look at a few baseline numbers.  These have been provided courtesy of Kevin "Radar" Boston.  These cost me 2 beers and a promise not to harass him until after the HTKP tournament.  You all better appreciate my sacrifice because Radar is a traditional "easy mark". 

What Radar did was apply everyone's end of season 2011 stats to their new team.  This does not account for rookies or people who took a year off.  Bear in mind that you will have to make 'mental' adjustments to include these folks, the stats are just meant as a guide, not a projection.

So here is how these 5 teams rank out of the 15 teams in the league for OBA

PLAYERS NOT INCLUDED:
Banshees:                    Murray Saunders, Dave Muirhead, Richard Lester
Beer Bros.:                  Peter Holmann, Winston Gayle
Brew Jays:                   Victor Gale
Dislocated Joints:         Emeil Edwards, Martin Ranby 
Dodge City Rounders:  Keith Beechey, Luc Schryer, Scott Mason, Tom Enright

• Potentially a lock down center field with Brian Richards and Murray Saunders
• Jerry Muirhead could be a center fielder on virtually any other team
• BLOG:  Jerry, how is it that you play so well in the field?
• Jerry:    I eats my spinach!
• Craig Beatty and Paul Koolhaus are both elite hitters.
• Brad Becker is on his second tour of duty with the Banshees
• John Tessier gives them another unquestioned defensive position locked up at 1st base
• Dave McKendrick had a break trough year at the plate last year in his final (for now) year as captain.  
• Unknowns:  Dave Muirhead (returning after a year layoff),  Richard Lester (rookie)
• CAPTAINS:   John Coopman plays short stop at a high level and started the season among the leaders in hitting last year.  Frank had another solid year pitching and also enjoyed three 4-hit games at the plate last year.

The Bright Side:  The Banshees had a very nice draft.  They have the benefit of walking into the first game with very few defensive question marks.  They have their outfield, pitching and much of their infield set and nice gap power up and down the line up.
The Less Bright Side:  Hard to find TOO many holes here.  They have two players coming back after 1 year layoffs, but I don't think 'rounding back into shape' will be an issue.  Its not the NHL. 

• Al Bales calls a good game and will be good for Lou.  He also has a knack for getting hits at the most opportune time. 
• Brad Smith is entering his sophomore year.  He had an excellent start to the 2011 eleven season and then hit the skids before rebounding late.  He'll be more consistent throughout this season.
• Dennis Short returns to the Bros. with the hopes of playing a full season.  
• The Pendlebury's will (likely?) patrol the left side of the outfield. 
• Goosney, Short.  Same team?  Maybe they really ARE the Beer Bros. 
• Len Wercholoz is about as good as you can get for a P2 and solid contributor at the plate. 
• Lou Conforti, first year as a P1, but has the demeanor to not get rattled in the rough patches that happen with every pitcher.  
• Unknowns:  Winston Gayle (recent cut by the Orioles made him available), Peter Holmann (rookie)
• CAPTAINS:  Steve Ross is field-idextrous. He plays infield and outfield at a very high level.  Paul Piellusch is a top tier center fielder who is also a respectable pitcher when needed on short notice.  As Captains, they combined last year to have 200 ABs and a .751 OBA.  FYI:  They're good. Don't be fooled by the "awww shucks, we're just happy to be here" attitude that they exude.

The Bright Side:  This is an interesting team because I can see the defense being configured a few different ways.  There may be a reliance for one or both of the rookies to play a key defensive role.  I like the balance of the offense.   Health, attendance and keeping Short away from Goosney are critical factors.  
The Less Bright Side:  Oh I'm just kidding.  Keeping Goosney away from Short is the bigger issue!  The only real downside here is giving people time to evolve into their positions and particularly, figuring out who's playing short stop.  There are definitely credible options, but they might not look pretty right away.  Doesn't really matter as long as everyone is playing smooth for games #25 thru #32, right?

• Another nice draft.  Bill Clouthier continues to be a steal.  His glove remains sharp at either corner and has more baseball knowledge in that surgically repaired rotator cuff than I'll ever have. 
• Dave Fleming....saw the finals last year in his rookie season.  Good outfielder, good hitter with strong gap power, nice pickup. 
• Polny.  A bit of a steal here for his draft round too.  Now, I don't know if anyone has thought of this, but Clouthier's mentoring - Polny's "throw caution to the wind" all out effort?  I'm looking for a break out season here. 
• Jamie McClean - solid outfielder and good stick.  Very good wheels on the bases too.  Also, if you've been to any captain's meetings, he has an uncanny ability to concentrate on the important things when there is lots of noise around him.  That will come in handy when the crowds get rowdy.   
• Lynn Foerster - Continues to be the stronger of the Foerster's.  Lynn shows no sign of slowing down, with another 63 hits last year, reliable defense and near perfect attendance.  
• Matt (the other) Foerster.  All kidding aside.  Matt hit ROPES last year.  Batting .787 in a little more than a half season. The speed would be a god send on any team.  
• Peiro (the Pie man) Del Greco.  Entering his 4th season.  Peiro continues to be among the top 15 catchers in the league.  Kidding - Peiro is a very good team mate, always gets his jug on the rare occasion that he K's.  1st base coaches need to remind him turn left, other than that, he'll be fine.  
• Roger Gaudet.  .734 average, 69 hits?  Nice pick up!!!
• Tito Presenza - Two years removed from pitching to a victory in the finals.  Tito is a high quality P1 and hits above the league average with good speed.  Not Mark Doyle speed, but good speed nevertheless.
• UNKNOWNS: Victor Gale (Rookie).  Met him at rookie night and he came to draft day.  Seems like a very nice guy.  Don't know about the baseball side, but I'm sure he'll be a very good team mate.  
• CAPTAINS:  Bo Niederhuber and Rod Duggan have usually patrolled the middle infield for the Brew Jays although they will bounce around from time to time.  Both have solid OBAs and Rod in Particular has power, but you can't sleep on Bo at all.  If you give him a gap he'll burn you.  

The Bright Side:  In two short years the Brew Jays have established themselves as an offensively minded club.  Having Bo and Rod, a second consecutive year of the Foersters and the additions of Gaudet and Fleming won't hurt that rep.  I think the combination of Tito and Clouthier should really take the pressure of the infield defense. 
The Less Bright Side:   I don't see a lot of worry points with this team.  They look like we all should, balanced.  Maybe watch for Jamie and Piero to start a gang called the McGrecos.

• Dave McGovern.  Until this year he had the second best arm in the league (next to Kahuna).  Not any more, but its still #3 in my books.   Very good middle infielder and excellent team mate.
• Derryl Gaudet.  Another good team and league guy.  Solid pitcher who can play anywhere defensively if needed.  
• Doris Casullo - Smart, gap power hitter who plays both a high quality center field and short stop.  Versatile and fast.    
• Garry Hilliard - Nice year at .589.  Some flexibility defensively.  22 players in our league have a double consonants in their first but Garry is one of two players to have a double consonant in his first and last name; which makes him half the answer to a good trivia question.     
• Harley Sherman - Another nice pickup, perfect attendance, 65 hits, has good wheels, burns me twice a year at least.  Apparently drives neither a Harley or a Sherman tank.  Weird.  
• Paul Gyori - The nice pickups keep coming for the Joints!  A .663 hitter with reliable attendance and a steady glove at 3rd base.  Another guy who is very involved in league activities as well.
• Stefan Kapp.  Good average at .621 and good outfield play.  His name is worth 21 points in scrabble. 
• Steve Wynnyk.  This might be a sleeper pick.  Good second baseman, very good speed and batting on the plus side of 600.  His name would be worth 81 points on a 3 triple word score in scrabble.
• UNKNOWNS:  Emeil Edwards (Rookie), Martin Ranby (Rookie)
• CAPTAINS:  Terry Doucet continues to be an effective pitcher and after a rough start, hit over .720 over his last dozen games.  Down Town Billy Brown is a probably why Terry has been a good pitcher.  Down Town is simply an exceptional catcher!

The Bright Side:  This team could be really good defensively.  If strength up the middle is the hallmark of a solid defensive club, then these guys are good in my book.  McGovern allows Doris to play center if they choose to go that way Wynnyk and Gyori are both nice infielders.  Derryl will give them strong defense from the mound or anywhere else they play him on the field.  If they opt to have Doris and Dave in the middle infield they will have one of the top two or three double play combos in the league. 
The Less Bright Side:  Their defense will keep them in games all year.  Their bats are going to have to win a few though.  You know that you're going to get a high average, gap power and speed on the bases form Doris and Dave.  Derryl and Paul were solid last year.  Others who tailed off a bit last year need a little bit of a bounce back and the rest need to hold form.  If they have sticks they could really dominate. 

 

• On my short list for 'best drafts'. 
• Adrian Barry played for The Wild last year and had 63 hits & .649 average. 
• Bones is quality at 1st base and can bounce around the infield a bit.  Carries a pretty reliable stick at .540. 
• There has been a dent in both of my shins for two years courtesy of Henry Lukassen.  He managed to blister balls from the plate into both shins in consecutive at bats. I know we have gloves for a reason, but nothing ever got there as quick has Henry's liners.  
• Mark Bickford.  Whom I still owe Cora's gift certificates to.  There, its in writing, you'll have to get it now.  Marky is healthy, slim and looking for a good year; bad news for the rest of the league. 
• Scott Peters, the nicest guy in the league (not counting Jens Lepa) continues to be an elite center fielder AND a top 25 hitter AND a nice guy.  
• Wayne Bickford.  The term Wiley old vet comes to mind, but that's only half the story.  Wayne is a tidy pitcher, rarely walks anyone and they are usually on purpose when he does.  He also seems to get important hits at an alarming rate for the opposition.  He hit well over .600 last year.  
• UNKNOWN:  Tom Enright (rookie), met him on rookie night, I think he'll fit it with the DCR's perfectly.  Scott Mason (Rookie).  I'd still like his ID checked.  Keith Beechey (Rookie). Met him and I'm not impressed.  I was trying to engage in a little conversation with him and it went something like this:
• Me:  Hey, you've played in the men's league right?  You must know a lot of these guys.
• Keith:  Keith does know a lot of these guys.  Keith thinks many of them will do well, but probably not as well as Keith.  
• Me:  Really?  You think some of them will struggle?
• Keith:  Keith wouldn't say "struggle"; Kieth thinks it will simply be an adjustment period. 
• Me:  Dude, you might want to drop the whole 'referring to yourself in the 3rd person' thing.  
• Keith:  Keith did not realize he was doing that. 

           Oh, I'm just kidding.  Keith was nothing but a gentleman at Rookie night and the draft.

• CAPTAINS:  Quick, let Al or Ed kiss your lottery tickets!  Ed McDowell and Al Fry are excellent captains.  They enjoy playing the game, are very good to their teams and have a way of keeping everyone together and on an even keel.  I think they've been rewarded with a team that might be as mellow as them.  

The Bright Side:  Its obvious but I'll say it anyway.  They have three guys on their roster that could potentially play their way into #1 spots next season.  This team looks solid ALL OVER!  I heard that after the draft Al and Ed were being fitted for jackets?!?!?!   
The Less Bright Side:  Outside of Scott's Anger Management issues and Beechey talking in the 3rd person, there are no issues on this team.  The only possible exception I can think of is they'll need to buy more pens this year due to all the coloured squared on the score sheet from filling in runs.   Really, its a small price to pay.

The great thing about our draft is no one loses.  Sure - you can win occasionally, but no one loses!  There are some known quantities, some players that nobody really knows anything about and then the great mass in the middle will either play better or worse than expected and average the team out.  So take a shot and pick your favourite to have the best record in this first group.  If you're kind of iffy on your answer, vote for two.  You are allowed multiple selections in this poll..

UP NEXT:  Bold Predictions (II) -  Dog Catchers, Dusty Cleats, Grisslies, Gruesome Devils, Hot Tub Woody's.